Mabux: Global Bunker Prices

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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
870.01
0.00
645.00
-5.00
Dec 2
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	870.01	0.00	645.00	-5.00	Dec 2

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
508.06	-1.39	584.94	-0.44	743.80	-2.83	Dec 6

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MBP INDEX vs DBP INDEX (ICE/NYMEX)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	Date
Rotterdam	452	456	-4	500	548	-48	645	744	-99	Dec 6
Singapore	454	476	-22	550	549	+1	660	753	-93	Dec 6
Fujairah	438	487	-49	540	541	-1	740	801	-61	Dec 6
Houston	438	449	-11	538	567	-29	652	661	-9	Dec 6

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Latest News
- 2024-12-06
  GLOBAL: HIF GLOBAL BECOMES A MEMBER OF THE METHANOL INSTITUTE
  The Methanol Institute (MI) has welcomed eFuels developer HIF Global as its newest member. In a statement issued yesterday (5 December), MI said, as part of its membership Chile-based HIF Global will collaborate with other industry leaders, policymakers,... Read more
- 2024-12-06
  EUROPE: VIKING TAKES DELIVERY OF ‘HYDROGEN-READY’ OCEAN SHIP
  Viking took delivery of its newest ocean ship, the ‘hydrogen-ready’ Viking Vela, with a ceremony held this week at Fincantieri’s shipyard in Ancona, Italy. The 499-stateroom Viking Vela will spend her inaugural season sailing itineraries in the Mediterranean... Read more
- 2024-12-06
  GLOBAL: LIQUID WIND AND SAMSUNG E&A TO EXPLORE EFUEL FACILITIES OUTSIDE EUROPE
  Liquid Wind and SAMSUNG E&A have announced they have entered into a collaboration agreement to accelerate the development of eFuel facilities outside Europe. Under the collaboration, signed yesterday (5 December) in Seoul during the Sweden-South Korea... Read more
- 2024-12-06
  GLOBAL: OPTIMISING PORT ARRIVALS COULD REDUCE VOYAGE EMISSIONS BY UP TO 25%, UCL/UMAS STUDY FINDS
  A study by the UCL Energy Institute and maritime consultancy UMAS has found that voyage emissions could be slashed by up to 25% by optimising port arrivals to account for congestion and waiting times, representing a ‘critical opportunity’ for GHG reductions. The... Read more
- 2024-12-06
  EUROPE: ELYSE ENERGY SECURES €124 MILLION INVESTMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE FUEL DEVELOPMENT
  French sustainable fuel and feedstock company has raised €124 million in funding from Hy24, PGGM, Bpifrance and Mirova to drive development of its e-methanol and sustainable aviation fuel production projects in France and Spain. Two new investors joined... Read more
- 2024-12-06
  Oil prices edge down as extended OPEC+ supply cuts highlight weak demand
  Oil prices edged lower on Friday, with weak demand in focus after the OPEC+ group postponed planned supply increases and extended deep output cuts to the end of 2026. Brent crude futures fell 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $72.03 per barrel by 0336 GMT. U.S. West... Read more Oil prices edged lower on Friday, with weak demand in focus after the OPEC+ group postponed planned supply increases and extended deep output cuts to the end of 2026.
  Brent crude futures fell 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $72.03 per barrel by 0336 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 1 cent to $68.29 per barrel.
  For the week, Brent was on track to drop more than 1%, while WTI hung on to a marginal 0.1% gain.
  The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies on Thursday pushed back the start of oil output rises by three months until April and extended the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026.
  The group, known as OPEC+ and responsible for about half of the world's oil output, was planning to start unwinding cuts from October 2024, but a slowdown in global demand - especially in China - and rising output elsewhere have forced it to postpone the plan several times.
  "Sidelining the surprise drawdown in US crude stockpiles last week and OPEC+ extending plans to ramp up output until September 2026, oil prices eased further amid growing concerns over dented global demand and oversupplied markets," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.
  "With growing concerns over global demand for oil in 2025, even the softening of the US Dollar in the last couple of sessions doesn’t seem to mend the floor beneath oil prices," she said.
  
  The latest extension puts OPEC+ output below major banks' previous forecasts, which could provide some support for the market going forward, analysts at energy-focused consultancy FGE said.
  However, concerns that supply will still outstrip demand even going into next year weighed on prices further.
  Macquarie analysts modeled Saudi Arabian oil production remaining in the low-9 million bpd range in 2025, but expected that even with that supply discipline the market would be oversupplied by more than 1 million bpd.
  "Looking into next year, we forecast a heavy surplus, as non-OPEC supply growth is anticipated to meet the below-trend demand growth, lowering the call on OPEC supply and limiting the need for OPEC+ to reverse voluntary cuts," they said in a client note.
  Markets were also looking out for the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later on Friday, to see whether it would support expectations of a rate cut at the U.S. Federal Reserve's next meeting.
  The market is pricing in a 72% chance that the Fed will deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut when it meets on Dec. 17-18, up from 66.5% a week ago, CME FedWatch tool showed.
  Clarity on rate cuts from the next Fed policy meeting might feed into demand forecasts for oil in 2025, said Phillip Nova's Sachdeva. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2024-12-06
  Gas Prices Set for a Breakout in 2025
  Natural gas prices are on the climb and this climb is about to intensify in the first months of the new year as seasonal demand hits its peak in the northern hemisphere. That’s bad news for struggling economies. Gas prices in Europe, Asia, and North... Read more Natural gas prices are on the climb and this climb is about to intensify in the first months of the new year as seasonal demand hits its peak in the northern hemisphere. That’s bad news for struggling economies.
  
  Gas prices in Europe, Asia, and North America have made solid gains this year. Reuters’ Gavin Maguire reported this week those fall in the range between 30% and 50%--and that’s not the end of the rally. Winter is just beginning, and the weather in Europe and Asia, as well as most of North America, is about to get a lot colder.
  
  Energy market analyst John Kemp reported that speculators in the United States were covering their short bets on natural gas at the fastest rate in over a year, reinforcing expectations of stronger gas prices. What’s more, these bets are being made just when the Energy Information Administration reported that the U.S. is entering winter with abundant natural gas reserves: the highest level since 2016, in fact. Yet even this fact, with gas in storage at over 3.9 trillion cu ft, has not been enough to maintain speculators’ bearish mood.
  
  In addition to the seasonal rebound and demand—and the expectation that it will be one major rebound after two warm winters—one driver behind this change in sentiment is the outlook for production. The focus here is on the United States and the fact that gas producers have been curbing production because of the chronically depressed prices. Now that prices are improving, it will be a while before the industry responds with a production boost—and until then, prices will be trending higher. So will power generation costs for most of the key markets.
  
  Europe will continue to be a major driver of natural gas demand in the coming months. Winter is not the top performance season for wind and solar, as recently evidenced by the energy mix of Germany, which featured coal as its biggest generator, followed by natural gas, and wind a close second to gas. Yet the gas that Europe is using to generate power is the same gas that much of Asia has come to rely on for its winter needs: U.S. liquefied natural gas.
  
  This means we have another tight race for limited LNG supply this winter. China provided some easing of that tightness this week when it completed the final connection of Russia’s Power of Siberia gas pipeline to end consumers, which would allow the pipe to reach its full capacity next year, covering 9% of the country’s gas demand. That’s 38 billion cu m that China won’t be looking to buy on the LNG spot market, and this is good news for other Asian countries—if they can outbid the Europeans.
  
  This will be tough, and the Europeans will most likely get more gas than Asian nations this winter, as they did back in 2022. This means two things: that Asian nations will fall back on coal once again and that Europeans’ electricity bills will rise once again, as will the price of everything that features electricity in its input costs.
  
  It is a tricky time for yet more consumer price inflation in Europe as people’s disgruntlement with the cost of living intensifies, but there is no chance of avoiding that disgruntlement. Europe doesn’t have a lot of options when it comes to gas supply. And U.S. producers are yet to start ramping up output as prices reverse their decline.
  
  This is perhaps the toughest stage in the energy commodity cycle for consumers. Supply is tightening because of a past surplus that drove prices down, prompting the production curbs. At the same time, as fate and the Earth’s rotation around the Sun would have it, demand is on the way to its annual peak, aggravating the imbalance with supply and set to cause some serious pain for consumers.
  
  The data on gas withdrawals and injection into storage in Europe is enough to paint a picture that U.S. gas producers would enjoy, unlike European governments and other large buyers. In Germany, withdrawals on Tuesday stood at 942 GWh, while injections totaled 16.22 GWh. For France, the withdrawal figure was 930.7 GWh, while the injection figure stood at 96.50 GWh. Italy and the Netherlands also saw massive withdrawals compared to the injection of new gas into storage. The situation points to looming depletion unless winter temperatures let go smack in the middle of the season to give Europe a breather.
  
  Yet the weather is notoriously unreliable when it comes to survival—and to energy security as the countries at the forefront of the energy transition are discovering for yet another winter. The looming gas shortage might give decision-makers in those countries pause for reconsideration of priorities, with energy security coming on top of emission levels. On the other hand, this has happened before, and it has not led to changes in priorities, so the chances of things changing now are slim.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2024-12-06
  Small Nuclear Reactors Are Gaining Traction Around the Globe
  As more countries worldwide begin to develop innovative nuclear technology and a ‘new nuclear era’ takes hold, an increasing number of governments are supporting small modular reactor (SMR) technology. Companies in regions of the world from North America... Read more As more countries worldwide begin to develop innovative nuclear technology and a ‘new nuclear era’ takes hold, an increasing number of governments are supporting small modular reactor (SMR) technology. Companies in regions of the world from North America to Asia, Europe and Africa are deploying SMR technology to support governments in their efforts to decarbonise and undergo a green transition. In addition to investment in new conventional reactors, we can expect to see a plethora of SMR projects worldwide in the coming decades.
  
  SMRs are advanced nuclear reactors that have a power capacity of up to 300 MW(e) per unit, equivalent to around one-third the generating capacity of a conventional nuclear reactor and enough to power more than 200,000 households. SMRs are much smaller than traditional reactors and are modular, making it simpler for them to be assembled in factories and transported to site. Because of their smaller size, it is possible to install SMRs on sites that are not suitable for bigger reactors. They are also significantly cheaper and faster to build than conventional reactors and can be constructed incrementally to meet the growing energy demand of a site.
  
  One company trying to boost its global SMR business is GE Vernova, the spinoff of General Electric’s former energy business. One of the biggest constraints to developing new nuclear projects is financing. However, SMRs are much cheaper to develop than conventional reactors. GE Vernova’s BWRX-300 is simpler and has fewer components and less concrete and steel than a traditional nuclear plant, meaning it costs between $2 billion to $4 billion to build compared to $10 billion to $15 billion for a large nuclear facility.
  
  Nicole Holmes, the chief commercial officer at GE Vernova’s nuclear unit GE Hitachi, said, “Affordability has been the real challenge for nuclear through the many years.” She added, “We’re beginning to crack that at this point.” In addition, “You could put four of these on a site and get the same output as you would from a single large reactor,” Holmes stated.
  
  GE Vernova is one of many U.S.-based firms to support the rapid development of North America’s SMR sector. Demand for SMRs in the U.S. has also increased in line with the rise in energy demand from tech companies looking to power the giant data centres required for advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence. Now, several other parts of the world are following suit with their own SMR plans.
  
  The U.S. is in talks with several Southeast Asian countries about the deployment of SMR technology. American officials have discussed the technology with Philippine, Singaporean, and Thai government representatives in recent months. The region, which continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels such as coal, for its power, is looking for innovative ways to transition to green on a large scale, and nuclear power could be the answer. The Philippines aims to develop its first nuclear power plant by 2032, while Vietnam and Indonesia are both considering adopting the technology.
  
  Compared to conventional nuclear plants, which can take decades to develop, SMRs can be built in factories and delivered to site to be assembled, saving time and money. Several U.S. companies are developing the technology and hope to grow their markets beyond North America in the coming years.
  
  In Europe, the European Industrial Alliance on SMRs announced it had identified nine SMR projects to support as its first batch of project working groups (PWGs) in October. The alliance hopes to deploy its first SMRs in the EU by the early 2030s. The alliance, a collaborative public-private platform launched by the European Commission in February, will use SMR technology to respond to the growing demand for clean electricity and high quantities of hydrogen in the region.
  
  Meanwhile, in South Africa, in November, the Minister of Energy and Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa stated that nuclear energy would be a pivotal part of the country’s energy mix and that activity was underway to re-invigorate South Africa’s nuclear capacities. In contrast to plans to develop more conventional reactors, Ramokgopa said, “What we have accepted is that SMRs are the future”.
  
  Parts of Latin America are also discussing the potential for SMR technology. The region is not typically known for its nuclear power production, but the smaller and less expensive version of the nuclear reactor could present it with an opportunity to develop the clean energy source. Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil already have conventional plants and other countries across the region, such as El Salvador, Bolivia and Peru, are looking to develop their nuclear energy industries to support a green transition.
  
  While SMR technology is still in the nascent stage of development, we can expect commercial deployment of the equipment to grow significantly in the coming decades as more countries around the globe look to invest in more affordable, small-scale nuclear projects to support a green transition.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2024-12-06
  MABUX: Slight downward trend to prevail in Global bunker market on Dec.06.
  MABUX World Bunker Index (as index calculated based on current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO), demonstrated a clear downward trend on Dec. 05: 380 HSFO - USD/MT - 509.45 (-5.62) VLSFO - USD/MT – 585.38 (-3.56) MGO - USD/MT – 746.63 (-5.32) As... Read more MABUX World Bunker Index (as index calculated based on current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO), demonstrated a clear downward trend on Dec. 05:
  
  380 HSFO - USD/MT - 509.45 (-5.62)
  VLSFO - USD/MT – 585.38 (-3.56)
  MGO - USD/MT – 746.63 (-5.32)
  
  As of Dec. 05, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), monitoring the correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX digital bunker price benchmark (DBP), indicated the following trends across key ports: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: Rotterdam returned to the overcharge zone, with the overprice margin increasing by $3. The rest three ports remained undervalued. The underprice premium widened by $2 in Singapore, $5 in Fujairah, and $1 in Houston. The MDI index in Rotterdam approached a 100-percent correlation mark between MBP and DBP.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Singapore moved to overpricing, with the margin rising by $9. Rotterdam, Fujairah and Houston continued to be undercharged, with the undercharge margin dropping by $4, $1, and $1 respectively. The MDI indexes in Singapore and Fujairah remained near a 100-percent correlation mark between the market price and the MABUX digital benchmark.
  
  • MGO LS segment: All four ports were underpriced, with the undercharge rate declining by $5 in Rotterdam, $3 in Singapore, $1 in Fujairah, and $5 in Houston. Singapore’s MDI dropped below the $100 mark, while Houston reached a 100-percent alignment between MBP and DBP.
  
  We expect Global bunker indices continue to a slight downward movement on Dec.06: 380 HSFO – minus 1-3 USD/MT, VLSFO – minus 1-3 USD/MT, MGO LS – minus 2-5 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2024-12-06
  Why Oil Markets Are Trading With Zero Conviction
  With nearly a month since U.S. President-elect Donald Trump won a second term in the Oval Office, oil markets have been struggling to find direction despite event risk remaining high, particularly in the Middle East. According to commodity analysts at... Read more With nearly a month since U.S. President-elect Donald Trump won a second term in the Oval Office, oil markets have been struggling to find direction despite event risk remaining high, particularly in the Middle East. According to commodity analysts at Standard Chartered, the market’s apparent hesitation to trade a view with any conviction has intensified the notion that oil markets seem content to wait for Trump to take office. Volatility has fallen sharply, with the 30-day front-month Brent realized annualized volatility sinking to a1 6-week low of 25.1% at settlement on 2 December. This volatility reading falls in the lower 30% tail of the distribution of volatility over the past 10 years.
  
  The ongoing ceasefire in Lebanon appears fragile, while the rekindling of the Syrian civil war indicates that the balance of power in the region has been disturbed. On Monday, Hezbollah fired into a disputed border zone held by Israel, with Lebanon’s parliament speaker claiming that Israel has committed 54 breaches of the ceasefire.
  
  StanChart has reiterated its earlier prediction that OPEC+ tapering mechanism is likely to play the biggest role in dictating the oil price trajectory. The analysts note that the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) and the broader OPEC+ Ministerial meeting originally scheduled for 1 December was moved to today, with the more administrative OPEC meeting set for 10 December.
  
  According to StanChart, the key discussions were those between Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, the eight OPEC+ nations that announced additional voluntary output cuts in April and November 2023. StanChart correctly predicted that, given current negative market sentiment and an overly pessimistic market view of 2025 balances, tactically the best choice for ministers was to delay any unwinding of voluntary cuts to the end of Q1 and perhaps even further out. StanChart notes that much of the recent burst of oil diplomacy has centered on Iraq and its commitment to both reduce output to target and to pay back past overproduction.
  
  Bloomberg estimates that Iraqi crude oil output fell to a three-year low of 4.06 million barrels per day (mb/d) in November; good for a 70 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) m/m decline;, 260 kb/d below August and 420 kb/d lower y/y, but still 60 kb/d above target (including voluntary cuts).
  
  According to StanChart, much of the negative sentiment that has dominated oil markets over the past couple of months can be chalked up to misapprehensions about the tapering mechanism for the voluntary cuts made by eight OPEC+ countries. Many traders are worried that the balance of oil demand growth and non-OPEC+ supply growth might not offset the scale of restored OPEC+output, leaving oil markets oversupplied. However, the experts have pointed out that this assumption flies in the face of continued reassurances from OPEC+ members that the tapering would be fully dependent on market conditions rather than being automatic.
  
  Trader focus has been on the question of how many barrels could be returned before a surplus emerged; however, positioning and price dynamics imply that the answer to that question is zero.
  
  In a November 3 press release, OPEC announced that output increases would be postponed by a month until the start of 2025. StanChart says the delayed return of more barrels to the market does not necessarily mean that OPEC felt the physical market could not absorb the oil, but rather reflects its awareness that extremely pessimistic 2025 oil balance predictions have viewed the tapering through that lens. StanChart says the latest announcement by OPEC strengthens the case that the pace of tapering will be market-dependent and not automatic as traders fear. This realization is likely to have driven the latest oil price rally.
  
  Gas Rally Hits Pause
  
  U.S. natural gas futures dropped to $3.00/MMBtu on Tuesday, their lowest in over a week, after surging 20% in November. Gas prices have declined amid forecasts of milder weather in mid-December, following a brief cold spell that had driven earlier gains. Utilities have stopped drawing heavily from storage, despite colder-than-usual weather recently boosting consumption. Meanwhile, U.S. gas production clocked in at a robust 101.5 billion cubic feet per day in November, but below last year’s peak of 105.3 bcfd.
  
  Meanwhile, European natural gas futures slipped to €47.6 per megawatt-hour, retreating from a 13-month high of €49 earlier this week, as forecasts pointed to warmer weather while withdrawals slowed down. EU gas inventory draws have moderated over the past week: According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data, inventories stood at 100.06 billion cubic metres (bcm) on 1 December; the w/w draw clocking in at 2.96 bcm, a significant deceleration from the previous week’s draw of 3.58 bcm. Last week’s withdrawal clip was also less than both last year’s draw of 3.65 bcm and the five-year average of 3.09 bcm.
  
  Gas inventories are at 85.2% of capacity, 10.54 bcm lower y/y but just 0.36 bcm below the five-year average.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com