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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
1 215.00
-206.00
1 407.00
+30.00
Mar 25
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	1 215.00	-206.00	1 407.00	+30.00	Mar 25

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
804.43	+27.90	944.44	+26.40	1 640.60	+41.46	Mar 30

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	735	733	+2	780	812	-32	1 407	1 394	+13	Mar 30
Singapore	690	765	-75	865	914	-49	1 820	1 387	+433	Mar 30
Fujairah	715	711	+4	865	882	-17	1 680	1 450	+230	Mar 30
Houston	687	647	+40	870	755	+115	1 322	1 329	-7	Mar 30

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Latest News
- 2026-03-30
  Oil prices surge to over $115/barrel after Yemen’s Houthis attack Israel
  Oil prices rose sharply in early trade on Monday after Yemen’s Houthi group attacked Israel over the weekend, pointing to a broader scope for the war in the Middle East. Continued hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran also pointed to little... Read more Oil prices rose sharply in early trade on Monday after Yemen’s Houthi group attacked Israel over the weekend, pointing to a broader scope for the war in the Middle East.
  Continued hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran also pointed to little de-escalation in the war, with Tehran stating that it was prepared for U.S. ground troops.
  Brent oil futures jumped 2.2% to $115.08 a barrel by 19:05 ET (23:05 GMT). It had initially surged as high as $116.43 a barrel.
  Get more breaking news and key insights on oil during the Iran war by subscribing to InvestingPro
  The Yemen-based, Iran-backed Houthis said on Sunday that they had launched a barrage of missiles against Israel, and vowed to launch more attacks. Their joining the war sparked concerns over a potential escalation in the conflict, given that the group has the capability to attack ships passing through the Red Sea.
  Israeli forces said they were attacking targets across Iran’s capital over the weekend, while the U.S. said that it had deployed 3,500 troops in the Middle East aboard the USS Tripoli warship.
  Oil was sitting on stellar gains in March, with Brent up nearly 60% as the onset of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran greatly disrupted global supplies. Iran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane that supplies 20% of the world’s oil consumption.
  Pakistan said it was prepared to host talks between the U.S. and Iran after Washington proposed a ceasefire and called for negotiations.
  
  But Tehran largely rejected the notion of direct talks with the U.S., and also accused Washington of secretly planning a ground invasion over the weekend. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-03-30
  Middle East War Reignites the Energy Transition
  The worst oil and gas supply shock in history has exposed the vulnerability of dependence on fossil fuel imports and is making renewables popular again. As governments scramble to contain the fallout from the energy shock, both in supply and prices, increased... Read more The worst oil and gas supply shock in history has exposed the vulnerability of dependence on fossil fuel imports and is making renewables popular again. As governments scramble to contain the fallout from the energy shock, both in supply and prices, increased electrification in transportation and power generation is once again the talk of the town.
  
  As the war in the Middle East laid bare the shock of losing oil and gas supply, policymakers and analysts are once again considering the benefits of fossil fuel importers boosting the share of renewable energy sources in their power mix and electrifying transport to reduce dependence on the now expensive – and scarce – supply of oil and gas.
  
  The current crisis, the second major shock this decade after the Russian invasion of Ukraine four years ago, is likely to drive increased focus on domestic energy supply. For fossil fuel importers, this means accelerated clean energy adoption.
  
  The war in the Middle East is now making the case for oil and gas-consuming countries to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels and strengthen their self-sufficiency in energy supply, where possible.
  
  Yet, boosting renewables is easier said than done. Massive investments are needed in grids and transmission, separate from the spending on turbines, solar panels, battery storage, and electric vehicles, as well as incentives.
  
  In theory, accelerated deployment of domestic solar, wind, and batteries would reduce dependence on fossil fuels for power generation.
  
  But the spike in fossil fuel prices to four-year highs doesn’t make a great case for faster renewables rollout, as the resulting surge in inflation and potentially higher-for-longer interest rates would raise the costs of clean energy materials and installations.
  
  Nevertheless, many governments are set to look to accelerate the adoption of clean domestic energy to future-proof a larger part of their energy systems to supply shocks. Whenever the war in the Middle East ends, it’s unlikely it will be the last.
  
  For Asia, the region most vulnerable to the Middle East’s oil and gas supply, where shortages were almost immediately felt, this could be “the Ukraine moment” to start considering reducing reliance on fossil fuels, according to green energy think tank Ember.
  
  “This is Asia’s Ukraine moment. Unlike the oil crises of the 1970s, there is now a better alternative…Oil volatility means EVs are a common-sense choice for countries wishing to insulate themselves from future shocks,” said Daan Walter, a principal at Ember.
  
  Dependence on fossil fuels has been exposed by the war, once again, Ember’s analysts note.
  
  “The technology to end that dependency exists. The only question is how many more crises it takes.”
  
  The best form of energy security is to onshore and internalize the energy systems, according to Ulrik Fugmann, Co-Head of the Environmental Strategies Group at BNP Paribas Asset Management.
  
  “Put very simply, the cost, and certainly prolonged cost, of a fossil fuel shock far outweighs the investments needed to continue to build out renewables,” Fugmann said on a BNP Paribas Asset Management podcast last week.
  
  Chinese clean energy manufacturers could be the biggest winners of the global rethink of energy security and energy supply.
  
  Since the beginning of the Iran war, investors have bet on higher global demand for renewable energy and electric vehicles, as the conflict traps most of the Middle East’s oil and gas supply at the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, shares of Chinese battery makers and green energy manufacturers have jumped this month.
  
  The domestic energy narrative has been a huge boost to green energy stocks in China, which is the world’s biggest renewable energy developer and a dominant supplier of batteries, wind turbines, solar panels, and other critical components for clean energy solutions. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-30
  Why Spain Is Weathering Europe’s Energy Crunch Better Than Most
  Europe has “sleepwalked into yet another energy crisis” watching energy prices spike across the continent for the second time in four years due to instability in global politics and energy trade. Four years after the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent global... Read more Europe has “sleepwalked into yet another energy crisis” watching energy prices spike across the continent for the second time in four years due to instability in global politics and energy trade. Four years after the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent global energy markets reeling, Europe has made significant progress weaning itself off of Russian oil and gas imports and building up its own energy supply chains. But the European Union still relies on imports for more than half of its energy needs, leaving it achingly vulnerable to the current energy crisis stemming from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and the war that the United States and Israel are waging in Iran.
  
  But while most of Europe’s major economies are scrambling to mitigate the damage of skyrocketing energy prices, one nation is feeling pretty good about its prospects. Spain could be sitting pretty thanks to its enormous investment in solar energy in recent years – but as much as Spain is turning into a role model for autonomy and resilience through clean energy, it may not be a formula for success in other European nations.
  
  “Spain can demonstrate examples of how investing in renewable energy helps our households experience a lower impact from gas price increases,” Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of Spain said in Brussels, the seat of the European Commission, on Thursday. At present, renewables represent almost 60 percent of Spain’s energy mix.
  
  “Last Saturday, the price per megawatt-hour of electricity in Spain was €14, while in Italy, Germany and France, consumers were paying over €100,” Sánchez went on to say. “That difference in price was not the result of random luck, but rather because this government has spent the last eight years working to be at the forefront of renewable energy deployment.”
  
  But Spain’s apparent buffer from energy market shocks may not be so simple to replicate in the rest of Europe – nor is it as simple and bulletproof as Sanchez would make it seem. While it’s true that Spain’s share of renewables is about 10 percent higher than the average in Europe, its relatively low energy prices are also thanks to the nation’s nuclear energy program, which keeps the nation’s energy markets stable in times of significant variability in solar and wind output.
  
  Other nations in Europe have also gone all in on renewables, but relying on variable energy sources can be economically and logistically dangerous. Rapid renewable expansion has led to extreme price volatility and record numbers of hours of sub-zero prices in 2025. While this is great news for consumers, who are paying the price of the war in Iran, it’s not sustainable for the continent's energy sector. Moreover, while Spain is currently enjoying the spotlight for its renewable-heavy grid, it’s gotten bad press for it in the past – such as in April, 2025, when more than 50 million people across Spain and Portugal lost electricity in “the most severe and unprecedented blackout that had occurred in Europe in the past 20 years.”
  
  And while Spain is faring better than many countries, it is not immune from the energy crisis sending shockwaves across the planet. Just this week, the Spanish government earmarked $5.8 billion in funding to help counter the war’s impact on local energy prices.
  
  All told, while Spain is an important case study for renewable transitions and their interactions with energy insecurity, its case is complex and unique. “Spain is in a fundamentally different structural position compared to most of its European neighbours. Since 2019, it has doubled its wind and solar capacity — adding more new renewable capacity than any other EU country except Germany, whose power market is twice the size,” Jan Rosenow, professor of energy and climate policy at Oxford University, recently told Politico. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-30
  MABUX: Global bunker market to continue firm upward movement on Mar. 30.
  The global bunker market remains predominantly macro-driven, with constrained demand dynamics. Geopolitical risks continue to lend support to prices, while weak physical fundamentals limit the potential for sustained upside. The MABUX World Bunker... Read more The global bunker market remains predominantly macro-driven, with constrained demand dynamics. Geopolitical risks continue to lend support to prices, while weak physical fundamentals limit the potential for sustained upside.
  
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — resumed a pronounced upward trajectory on Mar. 27 following four consecutive days of decline:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT 776.53 (+8.89)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 918.04 (+3.38)
  MGO: USD/MT 1 599.14 (+36.34)
  
  In Singapore, bunker prices are posting a moderate upward correction in line with crude benchmarks; however, underlying fundamentals remain weak. Delivered premiums have narrowed, and market activity continues to be subdued.
  
  In Fujairah, the market remains broadly stable, with prices holding steady despite elevated crude levels. Supply is sufficient, but demand remains muted amid ongoing regional disruptions and operational uncertainty related to the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  As of Mar. 27, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — which monitors the spread between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP) – indicated the following trends across the major global hubs of Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston, against a backdrop of continued high volatility:
  
  • HSFO segment: Singapore shifted into the undercharge zone, becoming the only underpriced port in this segment, with the discount widening by $89. The remaining ports stayed in the overcharge zone, though premiums narrowed by $3 in Rotterdam, $44 in Fujairah, and $4 in Houston.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Singapore also moved into the undercharge zone, joining Rotterdam, with discounts increasing by $6 in Rotterdam and $63 in Singapore. Fujairah and Houston remained overcharged; however, the premium declined by $62 in Fujairah, while increasing by $25 in Houston.
  
  • MGO LS segment: All ports continued to be overcharged. Overpricing levels decreased by $47 in Rotterdam, $44 in Singapore, and $124 in Fujairah, while increasing by $18 in Houston.
  
  We expect the Global bunker market to maintain its upward momentum on Mar. 30: 380 HSFO: plus 15–30 USD/MT, VLSFO: plus 15–35 USD/MT, MGO LS: plus 20–45 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-03-30
  The Cushion Is Gone and the Oil Market Is Now Exposed
  The global oil market has been on a rollercoaster since late February, but the price reaction to the largest supply disruption in history has been relatively muted. The calm was not complacency; buffers were there to absorb the shock. But the system that... Read more The global oil market has been on a rollercoaster since late February, but the price reaction to the largest supply disruption in history has been relatively muted. The calm was not complacency; buffers were there to absorb the shock. But the system that held for four weeks is no longer the system we are operating in today.
  
  The oil market did not underreact to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz; it absorbed it.
  
  For nearly four weeks, markets have shown remarkable resilience in the face of disruption, supported by a combination of pre-war surplus, crude-on-water, and policy barrels that provided a temporary buffer and kept prices contained.
  
  That phase is now ending.
  
  With spare capacity largely trapped behind the Strait, and inventories already drawing down, the system has shifted from buffered to fragile.
  
  European refiners are about to feel this directly, as they will have to increasingly compete with Asian buyers for the same Atlantic Basin barrels.
  
  When the next disruption hits, whatever its source, there will be little left to absorb it.
  
  Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, Chief Oil Analyst , Rystad Energy
  
  For nearly four weeks, the crude oil market has displayed remarkable resilience, holding together in the face of a 17.8 million barrels-per-day trade flow lost out of the Strait of Hormuz (of which 14.2 million bpd is crude and condensates).
  
  The relatively muted price reaction was possible because the market entered this crisis with a heavily buffered system.
  But that buffer has disappeared.
  
  The global oil system can no longer absorb shocks the way it could three weeks ago.
  
  Any secondary disruption that would have generated a linear, manageable price response in a buffered system – such as an outage at the CPC pipeline from the Caspian through Russia, an active hurricane season, or infrastructure damage at Yanbu or Fujairah – would now hit a market with no absorptive capacity left.
  
  The floor has moved up.
  
  So has the ceiling.
  
  And critically, the distance between a routine supply event and a disproportionate price move has collapsed.
  
  This is no longer a market that is tight for a couple of weeks, it is a market that will be fragile for longer.
  That distinction is what the crude oil price does not yet fully reflect.
  
  Before this conflict, the world was expecting a crude oil surplus of roughly 3.0 million bpd this year, onshore and offshore inventories were ample, and there was healthy spare production capacity, albeit very localized.
  
  Those combined “extra” barrels allowed the market to absorb a supply shock that, in any other starting configuration, would have caused prices to react more violently.
  
  Those buffers are now largely consumed, and the system that absorbed the initial shock is not the system operating today.
  Nearly 500 million barrels of total liquids have been lost in the disruption so far.
  
  The combined policy response of strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) releases by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and waivers of sanctions against Russian and Iranian crude amount to about the same volume. In addition, excluding offshore inventories, the release rate of those policy barrels is far slower than the 17.8 million bpd loss rate of crude and oil products combined.
  
  In past coordinated releases, total IEA flows have not reached above the 2.0 million bpd mark of sustained flows, which provides a good empirical reference point to assume that the actual deliverable volumes at system level will not hover much above that level.
  
  Rystad
  
  The mismatch goes beyond flow rates.
  
  The IEA release is directed at IEA member countries, which do not include some of the economies most exposed to the disruption, such as Pakistan and India, which receive none of the release directly.
  
  China built up substantial strategic reserves through 2025 and early 2026 but has shown no indication of drawing them down.
  
  India is relying on Russian crude in floating storage following a US sanctions waiver, but only 8.0 million barrels are left.
  
  There are still about 34 million barrels of Iranian and 21 million barrels of Venezuelan crude in floating storage, most of which is expected to head to China.
  
  Rystad
  
  Another crucial variable that explains why prices have not moved further is the length of the supply chain.
  
  The Strait of Hormuz throughput has been lost for nearly four weeks now, but global oil arrivals only showed the first meaningful decline last week, of about 7.0 million bpd below the three-year average.
  
  For the first three weeks of the disruption, oil arrivals were largely unaffected.
  
  The cascading supply chain implications of a sustained shortage are structurally similar to what Covid-19 did to demand in 2020 – but operating from the supply side and with less policy flexibility to respond.
  
  The pipeline of barrels already at sea, in combination with floating storage, SPR releases, and the spare production capacity, have collectively provided a buffer that is now being exhausted in real time.
  
  From this week, every day matters.
  
  Before the Brent crude flat price reacts, the physical markets are the canary in the mine, and differentials are now starting to move as European buyers realize that they will face fierce competition from Asian refiners for Atlantic basin barrels. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-30
  Oil Climbs on Fears of Multi-Front Supply Shock
  Oil prices had another volatile start to the week before breaking out due to a combination of military escalation and diplomatic breakdown. At the time of writing, after climbing to $116 and then flash crashing to $114, Brent Crude was trading at $116.69,... Read more Oil prices had another volatile start to the week before breaking out due to a combination of military escalation and diplomatic breakdown.
  
  At the time of writing, after climbing to $116 and then flash crashing to $114, Brent Crude was trading at $116.69, up 3.66%. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate had risen 3.18% to $102.80.
  
  Brent Price
  
  Another weekend of escalation in the conflict started with an Iranian strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on Saturday, wounding at least 15 U.S. service members and damaging key aerial refueling assets. The strike could hinder Saudi air defences, which heightens the risk of a successful attack on the Kingdom's energy infrastructure.
  
  Fears of a further disruption to oil markets then worsened as Yemen’s Houthi rebels formally entered the conflict, launching ballistic missiles toward southern Israel and signaling that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait may now be at risk.
  
  While the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has provided some relief for markets, with Saudi Arabia redirecting oil through its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea. If the Houthis were to shut that in as well, the supply crisis would worsen significantly.
  
  Over the weekend, the U.S. continued its military buildup in the region, with the arrival of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, a unit that consists of 3,500 personnel and specializes in amphibious raids. This heightened concerns that the U.S. may attempt to take Kharg Island or put 'boots on the ground' in some other arena. Reporting from the Wall Street Journal suggests the President is considering an operation to extract Iran's uranium.
  
  President Trump added fuel to the fire in a Sunday interview with the Financial Times when he said his preference would be to "take the oil in Iran," a move that would require seizing Kharg Island.
  
  Elsewhere, Israel launched a new wave of airstrikes over the weekend targeting sites in Tehran, including a heavy-water plant and a yellowcake production facility, which resulted in partial power outages in the city.
  
  Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said Islamabad is prepared to host talks between the U.S. and Iran, but it remains unclear how committed either side is to negotiations.
  
  Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf dismissed the prospect of negotiations, warning that Iranian forces are prepared for American soldiers and will “set fire to their souls and punish their regional partners forever.”
  
  That rhetoric, combined with continued strikes across the region and a U.S. troop buildup, has led markets to largely discount diplomatic progress for now.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-30
  Macquarie: Two More Months of War Could Send Oil to $200
  Oil prices could hit a record $200 per barrel if the war in the Middle East drags on through the entire second quarter, analysts at Macquarie Group have warned. The odds of the Iran war dragging on until June were put at 40% by the analysts in a note... Read more Oil prices could hit a record $200 per barrel if the war in the Middle East drags on through the entire second quarter, analysts at Macquarie Group have warned.
  
  The odds of the Iran war dragging on until June were put at 40% by the analysts in a note carried by Bloomberg. But the scenario of the war ending by the end of March currently appears more plausible, with odds at 60%, according to Macquarie.
  
  “If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand,” Macquarie’s analysts wrote in the report.
  
  “The timing of the re-opening of the straits, and physical damage to energy infrastructure, is the main determinant of the longer-term impact on commodities,” they added.
  
  Many other analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz, which is already closed to most tanker traffic for nearly a month, remains blocked for another month or two, oil prices could jump to as high as $150 and even $200 per barrel, forcing a global economic shock.
  
  Analysts started expressing views that $200 oil is not a fantasy anymore—with 20% of global oil supply choked at the Strait of Hormuz buyers are racing to procure physical cargoes, refiners in Asia consider cutting processing rates, and Asian countries restrict fuel exports.
  
  Andrew Harbourne, Wood Mackenzie’s senior analyst for oil markets, notes that the record 400-million-barrel release coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) will cover only about four weeks of disruption in the Gulf.
  
  “Strategic stocks remain an effective emergency buffer, but they are a one-off intervention that must eventually be rebuilt and cannot cover a sustained supply gap,” Harbourne added.
  
  Supply shocks in the past suggest that if the war and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persist, Brent crude prices could surge to $150 to $200 per barrel. For some petroleum products, such as diesel and jet fuel, the effective prices could be $200 to $250 a barrel or more, according to WoodMac.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-30
  Argentina’s State Oil Firm Dodges $16B Payout
  Argentina no longer faces a $16.1 billion court-ordered payment tied to the 2012 nationalization of state-owned oil company YPF. A U.S. appeals court overturned the 2023 judgment that had awarded damages to minority shareholders, Barrons said on Friday.... Read more Argentina no longer faces a $16.1 billion court-ordered payment tied to the 2012 nationalization of state-owned oil company YPF.
  
  A U.S. appeals court overturned the 2023 judgment that had awarded damages to minority shareholders, Barrons said on Friday. The United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit ruled 2–1 that the claims were not recognizable under Argentine law. That removes a potential liability estimated at up to $18 billion, including interest.
  
  The case stems from Argentina’s 2012 seizure of a 51% stake in oil company YPF from Repsol under then-president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Repsol settled for $5 billion in 2014. Other shareholders, including Petersen Energia and Eton Park, did not receive compensation. They filed suit in 2015, arguing that Argentina failed to make a required tender offer under YPF’s bylaws.
  
  The U.S. district court agreed in 2023 and set damages at $16.1 billion. Argentina appealed. The appellate court reversed, finding that Argentine law did not support the breach of contract claims. The case was heard in New York because YPF is listed on the NYSE, but the legal standard ultimately rested on Argentine statutes.
  
  For Argentina, the removal of a $16–18 billion liability directly affects reserves, debt servicing capacity, and fiscal planning. Argentina had argued the payment would consume a large share of its foreign currency reserves.
  
  “We won the YPF trial,” Argentine President Javier Milei said on X.
  
  For Milei, this means Argentina does not have to come up with $16–18 billion in hard currency. That removes a direct draw on reserves and avoids pulling capital out of oil and gas. YPF continues funding drilling, completions, and midstream buildout in Vaca Muerta without the spectre of diverting cash to a legal payout.
  
  The ruling also sets clear limits for US investors. YPF may trade on the New York exchange, but Argentine law controlled the outcome. That limits how far foreign shareholders can pursue claims in U.S. courts and will feed directly into how investors price legal and political risk in state-controlled energy assets going forward. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-30
  Russia Warns of Force Majeure on Oil Cargoes After Port Disruptions
  Russia’s oil exporters are warning buyers that cargoes from its key Baltic ports may not be delivered at all. Russian producers are now saying they may declare force majeure on cargoes from key Baltic Sea ports after a sustained wave of Ukrainian drone... Read more Russia’s oil exporters are warning buyers that cargoes from its key Baltic ports may not be delivered at all.
  
  Russian producers are now saying they may declare force majeure on cargoes from key Baltic Sea ports after a sustained wave of Ukrainian drone strikes knocked out critical infrastructure this week.
  
  The epicenter is Ust-Luga, one of Russia’s most important export terminals, where oil loadings have been halted since Wednesday following repeated strikes from Ukraine and a fire that, as of Friday, was still burning. Industry sources told Reuters that shipments may not resume until mid-April.
  
  Nearby Primorsk—another backbone of Russia’s Baltic export system—has fared only marginally better. It sustained damage but has partially resumed loadings. Even so, partial is doing a lot of work here. Together, the two ports represent a massive share of Russia’s seaborne crude and product flows.
  
  Reuters calculations suggest up to 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity is currently offline when factoring in port outages, pipeline disruptions, and tanker seizures.
  
  And yet, paradoxically, Russia is making more money.
  
  With Brent pushing past $100 and Urals crude reportedly trading near that same level amid a war-driven supply crunch, Moscow is seeing a surge in oil revenues. The spike has already prompted the Kremlin to shelve planned budget tightening and reconsider spending priorities, including military outlays.
  
  Prices are papering over operational damage for now, but there is a limit.
  
  Ukraine seems to be targeting Russia’s export capacity. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signaled that long-range strikes are designed to sustain pressure precisely as sanctions enforcement loosens and Russian barrels make their way back into global markets.
  
  Russia can attempt to reroute flows through alternative outlets, including Black Sea ports or inland networks. But capacity is finite, and those routes are already under strain.
  
  The potential force majeure announcement comes at a time when the oil market is already under strain. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already taken a significant chunk of oil and LNG supply off the market. Now layer in Russian export outages, and the result is a system with very little slack. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-30
  Aker BP’s Earnings Slide Masks a Massive Growth Push
  Aker BP’s 2025 Annual Report confirms what the market has been sensing for months: this was not a peak year—it was a transition year. Production held firm, costs remained low, and shareholder payouts continued. But weaker realized oil prices and impairments... Read more Aker BP’s 2025 Annual Report confirms what the market has been sensing for months: this was not a peak year—it was a transition year.
  Production held firm, costs remained low, and shareholder payouts continued. But weaker realized oil prices and impairments drove a sharp drop in earnings, even as the company doubled down on a capital-intensive growth pipeline aimed at the late 2020s.
  
  Production Holds, But Growth Pauses
  
  Aker BP delivered 420.1 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboepd) in 2025, landing at the top end of guidance. That compares to 439.0 mboepd in 2024, confirming a modest year-on-year decline.
  Liquids dominated the mix at 365.5 mboepd, with gas at 59.0 mboepd, reinforcing the company’s exposure to oil price movements.
  This was a year of solid execution—but not expansion.
  
  Lower Prices Hit Earnings Hard
  
  Realized liquids prices dropped to $68.9 per boe in 2025, down from $80.1 per boe in 2024. Gas prices partially offset the decline, rising to $69.4 per boe, but not enough to compensate.
  Revenue fell to $10.94 billion from $12.38 billion, while EBITDA declined to $9.36 billion from $11.08 billion. Net profit dropped sharply to $132 million, down from $1.83 billion in 2024.
  A key driver was impairments linked to lower forward price assumptions, including a $584 million hit in the fourth quarter alone.
  The earnings decline was driven by price—not operational underperformance.
  
  Costs Remain a Key Strength
  
  Despite weaker earnings, Aker BP maintained strong cost discipline, with unit costs at $7.3 per boe—keeping the company among the lowest-cost operators on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.
  That cost base remains central to the investment case.
  
  A Softer 2026 Before Growth Returns
  
  Guidance for 2026 signals another step down before growth resumes, with production expected at 370–400 mboepd and capital expenditure in the range of $6.2 billion to $6.7 billion pre-tax.
  This combination—lower output and higher investment—underscores the scale of the ongoing development program.
  Investors are effectively being asked to look through 2026.
  
  The 2028 Growth Story
  
  The strategic focus is firmly on the second half of the decade. Aker BP is targeting around 525 mboepd by 2028, with production expected to remain above 500 mboepd into the 2030s.
  This growth is underpinned by major projects on the Norwegian Continental Shelf and continued exploration success, with more than 100 million barrels discovered net in 2025.
  At the same time, project costs are rising. The Valhall PWP-Fenris development, for example, has seen its investment estimate increase to around $7.0 billion, up from $5.9 billion previously.
  The company is clearly trading capital intensity today for scale tomorrow.
  
  Dividends Signal Confidence
  
  Even with weaker earnings, Aker BP continues to return cash to shareholders.
  Total dividends for 2025 amounted to $2.52 per share, while the quarterly dividend has been increased for 2026, implying an annualized payout of $2.646 per share.
  Raising dividends into a lower-production year sends a clear signal: management believes the growth plan is on track.
  
  The Bottom Line
  
  Aker BP’s 2025 report is less about what the company earned and more about what it is building.
  The near-term picture shows lower production and weaker earnings, while the longer-term story depends entirely on execution.
  If Aker BP delivers on its 2028 production target, the current investment cycle will be justified. If not, the market may begin to question the scale of capital being deployed today.
  For now, the market appears willing to give the company the benefit of the doubt—but that confidence will be tested over the next two years.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com

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