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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
904.00
-91.00
1 170.00
+10.00
Apr 20
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	904.00	-91.00	1 170.00	+10.00	Apr 20

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
732.90	-1.99	863.12	-1.99	1 394.26	-4.92	Apr 21

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	598	668	-70	667	745	-78	1 170	1 225	-55	Apr 21
Singapore	632	695	-63	698	828	-130	1 250	1 218	+32	Apr 21
Fujairah	595	642	-47	702	797	-95	1 420	1 281	+139	Apr 21
Houston	615	669	-54	814	774	+40	1 075	1 130	-55	Apr 21

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Latest News
- 2026-04-21
  Oil falls on expectations US-Iran talks likely to proceed, opening supply
  Oil prices fell on Tuesday, reversing gains in the previous session, on expectations peace talks between the U.S. and Iran will take place this week and allow more supply to flow from the key Middle East producing region. Brent crude futures declined... Read more Oil prices fell on Tuesday, reversing gains in the previous session, on expectations peace talks between the U.S. and Iran will take place this week and allow more supply to flow from the key Middle East producing region.
  Brent crude futures declined 54 cents, or 0.6%, at $94.94 a barrel at 0300 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for May fell $1.11, or 1.2%, to $88.50. The May contract expires on Tuesday and the more-active June contract was down 76 cents, or 0.9%, at $86.66.
  Both benchmarks surged on Monday, with Brent up 5.6% and WTI up 6.9%, after Iran again shut the Strait of Hormuz, closing the key oil transport artery, and the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship as part of its blockade of the country’s ports.
  Still, investors are focusing on the likelihood talks this week will result in the extension of the existing ceasefire or a final agreement, though the chance of further conflict and disruptions to oil flows remains.
  "While energy markets popped higher yesterday following Iran’s decision to reverse its opening of the Strait of Hormuz, they’re still trading in a manner which suggests optimism over U.S.-Iran talks," said ING analysts in a note.
  "But we believe markets are underpricing the ongoing supply disruption. Optimism appears to be clouding the reality of the supply shock."
  Iran is weighing participation in peace talks in Pakistan, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday, following Islamabad’s efforts to end the U.S. blockade.
  
  The blockade has posed a major hurdle to Tehran rejoining peace efforts, with the current two-week ceasefire set to expire this week.
  "We continue to lean toward an MOU being signed and/or the ceasefire being extended this week, potentially evolving into a broader agreement," Citi analysts said in a note. "That said, we remain prepared to pivot toward a more protracted disruption scenario should negotiations falter this week."
  Underscoring the uncertainty around the talks, the Iranian official stressed that no decision has been made to attend, as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said "continued violations of the ceasefire" by the U.S. is a hindrance to further negotiations.
  Separately, Iran’s top negotiator and Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf reiterated that Tehran would not negotiate under threats.
  Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor for about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, remained limited on Monday.
  If disruptions to the strait persist for another month, total losses could rise to about 1.3 billion barrels, with prices likely near $110 a barrel in the second quarter of 2026, Citi said.
  Kuwait declared force majeure on oil shipments due to the strait’s blockade, Bloomberg News reported.
  The higher prices caused by the closure of the strait have cut oil demand by about 3% so far, analysts at Societe Generale said in a client note.
  The risk is "skewed toward larger losses the longer normalisation is delayed," it said, adding it expects "full normalisation" to supply only by late 2026. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-04-21
  Oil Is No Longer Trading Like a Market
  The oil market is heading into unknown spaces. To paraphrase Starship Enterprise, “Oil markets ('Space' the final frontier. These are the voyages of the starship Enterprise. Its 5-year mission: to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new... Read more The oil market is heading into unknown spaces. To paraphrase Starship Enterprise, “Oil markets ('Space' the final frontier. These are the voyages of the starship Enterprise. Its 5-year mission: to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations, to boldly go where no man has gone before”. As we can now see, there is a moment in every crisis when the language of markets, which is normally based on price discovery, marginal barrels, and supply-demand balance, quietly but dangerously stops making sense. For the oil markets, that moment has now passed. We are now witnessing a tight market, and not a disrupted one, but a real-time structural breakdown of the very mechanisms that have governed global energy flows for decades, fundamentally altering market dynamics and stability.
  
  This should not have come as a surprise, as analysts have been warning for years that the global oil framework is increasingly fragile, as it is not only reliant on a handful of chokepoints but also on a logistical architecture built on the perception or expectation of uninterrupted flows. For most oil market pundits, even in the most pessimistic scenarios, the ruling assumption (or the most comforting one ) was still that the price would act as the ultimate balancing mechanism. Conventional theories all pointed out that higher prices would incentivize supply, dampen demand, and restore equilibrium. Reality at present is that this assumption is now being tested to destruction, exposing the danger of overdependence on price signals alone in a fragile structure.
  
  While some are still regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as just another geopolitical disruption, as we see in statements and strategic policies of global leaders, especially in the EU, it should now be regarded as the removal, not relevant if this is partial or near-total, of the world’s single most critical artery in the global energy landscape. Yes, we all know that roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG flows normally transit this narrow waterway, with a current loss of over 13 million bpd. This loss is not a volume that the market can absorb through price signals alone, underscoring the potential for widespread supply disruptions and market instability.
  
  Financial markets have, at present, deceptively muted the immediate effects. Oil prices have fluctuated, even softened at times, which should be seen or assessed as a persistent disbelief among traders that the disruption is real, sustained, and structurally damaging. Reality, especially beneath the surface, is showing a much bleaker, even pitch-dark picture, while the physical market is telling a very different story. At present, European and Asian refinery runs are not reduced due to demand destruction but because feedstock is not available. More attention should be paid to developments in storage, as storage levels are being drawn down at an accelerating rate. This is not only crude oil but also increasingly petrochemical products. The whole market is currently cannibalizing itself.
  
  Politicians, policymakers, and financials should start to understand that they have several critical misunderstandings. The first one is that reduced refinery throughput is not evidence of weakening demand. Current markets show the opposite, as it is clear that it is a symptom of constrained supply chains. Europe’s refineries are now caught between a rock and a hard place, as they already operate in a structurally tight environment due to years of underinvestment and the loss of Russian barrels. The Iran war and Hormuz are now putting refineries under additional strain. On the other side of the globe, Asian refiners, especially those in import-dependent economies such as South Korea and India, have already entered a phase in which procurement strategies are shifting from optimization to survival.
  
  Timelines at present clearly matter more than headlines. It should be understood that crude oil is not delivered instantly. Until now, refineries have been able to sustain their runs using barrels that were largely loaded weeks ago, before the latest escalation. For European and Asian refineries and markets, when these shipments are discharged and consumed, the reality will become very visible, as there will be no replacement cargoes. By early May, which is an optimistic scenario, the illusion of normalcy will begin to fracture. By mid-May, it will be gone.
  
  Policymakers should also reassess the status of their inventories. Market indicators show that these inventories, which are the last buffer, are far thinner than is currently admitted. OECD commercial stocks have been declining for months and are now approaching operational minimums. The call for another SPR release will be heard, but even this can only provide temporary relief. This will definitely not be a substitute for sustained flows. Optimism about the USA is also unfounded. In the media, the United States is often seen as the swing supplier of the market, but it has already constrained itself. Export capacity is finite, and domestic political pressure is already building to prioritize internal supply over global markets. We are also not talking about an American oil and gas company, but individual players (with shareholders).
  
  A second uncomfortable reality is that we are looking in real time at the fragmentation of the oil market into regional blocs. At present, we don’t have a single fluid structure anymore, but a European, Asian, and North American market. All of these parts are independently competing for a shrinking pool of accessible barrels, each with its own constraints and political priorities.
  
  While Asia is making headlines, Europe is having a very acute stress. The total continent, even the so-called pro-Russia parties, has spent the past two years restructuring its energy framework away from Russian hydrocarbons. Europe has shifted to a new reliance on seaborne imports from the Middle East, the United States, and West Africa. The closure of Hormuz and the loss of 13+ million bpd from the market include Gulf flows that were meant for Europe. The continent’s energy architecture is now hit at its heart. Even with maximum inflows from the United States, which has, until now, been able to maintain elevated export levels, this gap (crude oil and products) cannot be closed.
  
  At the same time, Europe’s refining landscape, after decades of lower investments or even closures, is not even optimized for all crude types. When trying to substitute Middle Eastern grades with alternatives, the refining sector faces technical and economic inefficiencies, which also directly result in the tightening of product markets. Diesel, already structurally short in Europe, is expected to be one of the first major casualties. Jet fuel and gasoline will follow, with knock-on effects across transport, industry, and ultimately consumer prices.
  
  For Asia, these challenges are severe but different. For the last few decades, Asia has been the largest importer of Middle Eastern crude. This dependency is even growing structurally. China and India, while benefiting from discounted Russian barrels, are not at present able to fully offset the loss of Gulf supplies. South Korea and Japan, with very limited domestic resources and high import dependencies, are highly exposed.
  
  While there is already a scramble for crude oil, fuels, and chemicals, it has not become very visible. Long-term contracts are being renegotiated, while spot markets are tightening, and logistical chains need to be rerouted at high costs. This shift is not only geographical but strategic. After decades of globalization and liberalization, energy security as a strategy and risk is back with a bang. It is now taking clear precedence over efficiency in the coming years, reversing decades of globalization in the oil trade.
  
  Still, these moves do not fully capture the scale of the disruption. Yes, logistics has become a major issue. However, the real issue is a present political issue.
  
  The assumption that the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened through negotiation is increasingly detached from reality. While diplomats and policymakers still believe in diplomacy, reality is totally different. The balance of power within Iran has shifted decisively towards the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an entity whose strategic calculus is fundamentally different from that of civilian policymakers. For the IRGC, control over Hormuz is not merely a bargaining chip; it is a central pillar of its regional power projection.
  
  Recent events underline this shift. At the same time that the Iranian government stated that the Strait is open again, IRGC reactions were 180 degrees in the opposite direction. The IRGC is no longer signaling its intentions; it is enforcing. Ships now require explicit approval to transit, and movements are dictated by military command rather than commercial logic. Conflicting statements from Iranian civilian officials and hardline commanders have exposed a fragmented state where diplomacy is performative. Still, control rests firmly with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the hardcore extremist fundamentalist military group controlling the country. Facts on the ground show that the IRGC has sidelined moderates and is driving an uncompromising strategy that rejects negotiations outright.
  
  Global oil market pundits, politicians, traders, and financials should understand and realize that this is not accidental. Iran’s approach has evolved into a deliberate long-war doctrine: selective closure, controlled escalation, and maximum economic pressure on global markets. The powers in Iran have been able to retain leverage by turning Hormuz into a managed chokepoint rather than a fully closed one. At the same time, Tehran’s hardcore powers now have leverage over the main artery of energy while avoiding outright military confrontation. In reality, it is an “all-or-nothing” strategy played over extended timelines. They are exploiting the West’s dependency on stable flows and its political aversion to sustained disruption. By using a layered maritime denial strategy, they can impose uncertainty and raise systemic costs.
  
  This introduces a third and perhaps most profound shift in oil markets. Price has been replaced by power as the primary determinant of oil flows. In history, in a functioning market, scarcity will lead to higher prices, which, in the end, turn into incentivized supply and demand destruction. However, when geopolitical actors physically constrain supply, the price will lose its balancing function. Said, there is no price at which a barrel can be delivered if the route itself is blocked.
  
  In such a reality, the oil market will not be clear but fractured. For all, when this happens, there is no immediate path back. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-21
  The U.S.-Iran Deal, The Deadline, and The $200 Per Barrel of Oil Question
  This week brings with it the 22 April deadline marking the end of the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The on-again/off-again/on-again closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran, and Washington’s naval blockade specifically on Iranian ports,... Read more This week brings with it the 22 April deadline marking the end of the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The on-again/off-again/on-again closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran, and Washington’s naval blockade specifically on Iranian ports, can broadly be seen as part of the ongoing negotiations for peace that began on 8 April, with the mood surrounding the talks having swung as wildly on both sides as the state of the blockades. Even before the recent spate of hostilities, mediating Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi declared that an “historic breakthrough” between the U.S. and Iran had been reached, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi underlining the positive progress. And U.S. President Donald Trump said just a few days ago that the two sides were on the cusp of a deal. That said, a senior European Union (E.U.) security source exclusively told OilPrice.com last week that there are serious rifts between Iran’s Foreign Ministry and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), with the latter far less willing to make key concessions than the former. And Trump has since stated that if a deal is not signed by the Wednesday, 22 April deadline, he “maybe won’t extend” the ceasefire and the U.S. will have to “start dropping bombs again”. In that case, another deadline will come into focus: 1 May is the legal deadline for President Trump to seek congressional approval to continue military operations under the ‘War Powers Act’, following the 60-day mark on 29 April. So, what are the likely scenarios here?
  
  One possible outcome is that no deal is reached by midweek, but the ceasefire is extended to allow for further negotiations. In this event, the E.U. source and a senior Washington-based legal source who works closely with the U.S. Treasury Department exclusively told OilPrice.com last week, the U.S. is likely to maintain a holding pattern on action. This will consist of continuing with its own blockade on Iranian ports, while further reinforcing its position off the south coast of Iran, with the USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier en route to the area, having rounded the Cape of Good Hope very recently. Added to the U.S.’s other materiel nearby, Washington should have little practical trouble in continuing its blockade of Iran if its keeps doing so at a distance. “The guys [U.S. navy and other forces] can do everything they need to monitor and enforce the Iran blockade from the Arabian Sea, which is all they need to do to make Iran start to feel the economic pain of the closure,” said the Washington source. “To the same end, we’ve also decided not to renew a 30-day sanctions waiver for Iranian oil exports [that expired on 19 April], and we’re further extending financial sanctions on it too,” he added. “Both of these measures will also put more pressure on China, which has gotten a lot of its oil from Iran over the years [on the terms of the Comprehensive ‘25-year China-Iran Strategic Partnership’], and which up until our blockade of the [Iranian] ports was freely able to keep receiving it,” he added. In this scenario -- with blockades in place but talks still ongoing -- the E.U. source underlined that it would be highly likely that the U.S. would facilitate the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz sooner
  
  A less optimistic scenario is that no deal is reached by midweek, the ceasefire is not extended, and the U.S./Israel-Iran war resumes in full. “From the Iranian side, it would include the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the same for the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, attacks on the critical energy infrastructure of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, attacks on key U.S. military and civilian targets in the region, and later attacks on key targets in the U.S., Israel, and in any countries associated with the U.S./Israel attacks,” said the E.U. source. “If it [Iran] goes down this route then we’d be looking at the bigger options from our side,” said the Washington source. “This includes the sort of infrastructure targeting the President referred to recently [including key bridges and civilian power plants], further targeted special military operations, and more sanctions, all designed to increase pressure on the current regime from inside and out,” he underlined. This scenario would be the one in which oil prices could easily go to the $200 per barrel level promised by Iran in the early stages of the war. Houston-based Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie Group, has assessed the possible impact of the war continuing until the end of June. “If the Strait [of Hormuz] were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand, with some countries, particularly in Asia, already facing physical shortages,” he underlined. “And with the global economy much less oil intensive than 50 years ago, we would not be surprised if that would require historically high real prices -- over $200 per barrel -- for a time, which would equate to a U.S. gasoline price of around $7 per gallon,” he concluded.
  
  Such a scenario would be extremely negative for the U.S. and politically disastrous for Trump, as fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Historical data highlights that every $10 pb change in the oil price results in around a 25-30 cent change in the price of a gallon of gasoline, and for every 1 cent per gallon that the average price of gasoline rises, more than $1 billion or so per year in consumer spending is lost -- causing economic damage. Politically speaking, since 1896 the sitting U.S. president has won re-election 11 times out of 11 if the economy was not in recession within two years of an upcoming election. However, sitting U.S. presidents who went into a re-election campaign with the economy in recession won only once out of seven occasions. Trump may still seek another term as President, but even if he does not, he does not want his political legacy to be defined by a failed Iran adventure as was Jimmy Carter’s, according to the Washington source. And, in any event, his Republican Party will want to optimise their chances for another of their members to be in the top job, which means keeping gasoline prices -- and therefore, oil prices -- at the low end.
  
  All this points to a deal being made at some point sooner rather than later, according to both the U.S. and E.U. sources, but what will it look like? Early in the conflict, Trump clearly laid out the four objectives he wants to achieve with the U.S.’s current actions against Iran and its proxies. In the order in which he said them, they started with making it impossible for Iran to build a nuclear arsenal and then moved on to degrading and destroying its missile stockpiles and production capabilities. Then came regime change and finally the end of the financing and arming of its proxies. All these aims were endorsed by every member of his cabinet. Moreover, all of them were in the draft of President Barack Obama’s original version of the ‘Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’ (JCPOA, or colloquially ‘the nuclear deal’) agreed with Iran between 2013 and 2015, also detailed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. They remained the same in the version of the JCPOA that Trump and his team have been trying to negotiate with Iran ever since the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in May 2018.
  
  In terms of specifics, says the E.U. source, progress has been made on the key nuclear issue. “Iran has already agreed to a suspension if its uranium enrichment in principle, with the only difference being the duration -- five years against the 20-years now proposed as a minimum by Washington,” he told OilPrice.com over the weekend. “Iran has also agreed to dispose of its stockpile of enriched uranium in principle, with the only difference to the U.S. being that it wants to do so itself, whereas Washington wants the material handed over to it,” he added. “There is also agreement from Iran that it will in principle reduce its support for its proxies across the region, although in practical terms its ability to meaningfully support them for the foreseeable future looks very limited anyway,” he told OilPrice.com. “As of now, there’s not much movement on the issue of curtailing its ballistic missile resources, but there may soon be enough for Trump to extend the deadline for the negotiations further,” he concluded. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-21
  MABUX: Global bunker market expected to shift upward on Apr. 21.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — extended its downward trajectory on Apr. 20, marking the sixth consecutive day of declines: 380 HSFO: USD/MT: 734.89 (-7.79) VLSFO: USD/MT... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — extended its downward trajectory on Apr. 20, marking the sixth consecutive day of declines:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 734.89 (-7.79)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 865.11 (-5.34)
  MGO: USD/MT 1 399.18 (-14.25)
  
  As of Apr. 20, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — reflecting the spread between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP) — indicated the following developments across key global hubs (Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: All four ports remained in the undercharged zone, with discount levels continuing to narrow: $61 in Rotterdam, $53 in Singapore, $61 in Fujairah, and $71 in Houston. Fujairah’s MDI approached full (100%) correlation between MBP and DBP, signaling increased pricing alignment.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Houston shifted back into the overcharged zone, becoming the only overpriced port in this segment, with its premium widening to $88. The remaining ports stayed undercharged, though discounts continued to contract: $78 in Rotterdam, $69 in Singapore, and $70 in Fujairah. Consequently, the MDI values in these ports fell below the $100 threshold.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Rotterdam and Houston maintained undercharged status, with discounts narrowing to $172 and $74, respectively. In contrast, Singapore and Fujairah remained overcharged, with premiums increasing to $78 and $129. Rotterdam’s MDI dropped below the $100 mark, indicating reduced deviation from the digital benchmark.
  
  The global bunker market is expected to reverse into an upward trend on Apr. 21, driven by geopolitical concerns surrounding a potential collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire: 380 HSFO: plus 5-15 USD/MT, VLSFO: plus 5–20 USD/MT, MGO LS: plus 10–25 USD/MT.This anticipated rebound reflects heightened risk premiums entering the market amid escalating geopolitical uncertainty.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-04-21
  Middle East Oil Pricing Is Cracking Under Pressure
  In a “perilous position,” the Platts Dubai benchmark, which used to price around 18 million barrels per day, nearly a fifth of global supply, is now severely strained by the halt in exports through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, with most... Read more In a “perilous position,” the Platts Dubai benchmark, which used to price around 18 million barrels per day, nearly a fifth of global supply, is now severely strained by the halt in exports through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, with most cargoes having been unable to move safely through the chokepoint, the system is grappling with a fundamental question of how to price oil that cannot be loaded. The situation remains largely unchanged as of today, despite Washington’s announcement that the Strait is officially open for business again. The Platts Dubai benchmark depends on crude produced in the UAE, Oman, and Qatar, much of it loaded within the Strait. But since the outbreak of conflict, tanker traffic has slowed dramatically, leaving the benchmark disconnected from physical reality. Platts has responded by cutting deliverable grades from five to two--Murban and Oman--reducing supply in the pricing basket by roughly 40%.
  
  Market participants have told Reuters the benchmark is “effectively broken,” with some stepping back from trading Dubai-linked cargoes or derivatives altogether. Others are shifting activity toward exchange-based mechanisms, particularly Murban Futures on IFAD, where pricing continues to function even as physical-linked benchmarks come under strain. For those traders, the appeal of Murban Futures is practical as much as structural. They offer a way to hedge and price exposure in a continuously traded market, rather than relying on a short assessment window where a small number of transactions can dominate outcomes.
  
  Oman crude has not been able to replace the missing barrels, leaving Murban to carry most of the load. Oman exports can bypass the Strait, and the DME Oman futures contract was built to provide a transparent, exchange-based pricing mechanism, but liquidity remains thin, and participation is limited. Within the Platts Dubai system, Oman remains tied to the same stressed setup, so it is not solving the pricing problem.
  
  In practice, the deliverable basket has narrowed to Murban and Oman, with Murban increasingly shouldering the burden of price formation. Against that backdrop, price discovery is beginning to migrate away from the Platts window toward Murban Futures on ICE Futures Abu Dhabi (IFAD), which provide continuous, exchange-based pricing that is not confined to a short assessment window and is less exposed to a small number of transactions when liquidity thins.
  
  The energy crisis has also exposed how vulnerable the Middle East benchmark is to concentrated trading.
  
  Platts Dubai pricing is built on its Market on Close process, where partial cargo trades are combined into full deliveries. With fewer participants and thinner liquidity, influence is becoming concentrated. Trade data shows that TotalEnergies’s trading arm spent around $4 billion on Dubai partials in March, taking delivery of 77 out of 82 cargoes and effectively dominating the process, adding upward pressure on prices. This does not break any rules, but it points to a potential problem.
  
  When a benchmark is driven by a small number of transactions within a narrow pricing window, a single player can end up shaping the price and eroding competitiveness (an issue that becomes more pronounced as liquidity thins). That concentration risk is exactly what exchange-based futures like Murban are designed to reduce, spreading price formation across more participants and longer time horizons.
  
  New Pricing Mechanism
  
  The more immediate question is not just how the Dubai benchmark adapts, but whether price discovery is already shifting elsewhere. As the deliverable pool contracts and liquidity inside the Platts window deteriorate, Murban Futures on IFAD are increasingly serving as a parallel venue for price formation, offering continuous trading and greater transparency at a time when traditional benchmarks are under stress.
  
  The growing role of Murban futures is a phenomenon that dates back to well before the Iran war, but it is just one way one way the blend is altering Middle East oil. An arguably even more consequential shift has been how Murban has been changing pricing behavior inside the benchmarks themselves, particularly in Asia, as supply discipline and refinery economics upend long-standing relationships between sweet and sour grades. One clear sign of this shift is how Murban trades inside the Dubai benchmark. Murban is no longer just one of the grades that can be delivered into the basket: during periods when medium and heavy sour supplies are tight, Murban has often been the most available crude, and prices have tended to settle around it. In some cases, that has left Murban trading below sour grades that would normally be priced at a discount.
  
  Just a decade ago, this inversion would have been difficult to imagine. The Dubai benchmark was built around medium sour crudes flowing into Asia, where refineries were set up to run heavier barrels. Light sweet grades like Murban typically traded at a premium because they were easier to process and produced more high-value products. As supply patterns have shifted and refinery economics have changed, that relationship has narrowed and, even sometimes reversed.
  
  A major driver has been supply management rather than demand. OPEC+ production cuts disproportionately constrained medium and heavy sour grades, tightening the availability of crudes such as Upper Zakum, Oman, Al Shaheen, and Dubai Fateh. Murban, by contrast, has remained relatively abundant and freely tradable. As a result, during periods of tight sour supply, Murban has often become the cheapest deliverable crude in the Dubai basket, effectively capping the benchmark’s value.
  
  At the same time, refinery economics in Asia have evolved. Over the past decade, refiners, particularly in China, have invested heavily in complex upgrading capacity that allows them to process heavier, cheaper crudes while still maximizing output of light products such as gasoline, naphtha, and jet fuel. That investment has reduced the structural advantage once enjoyed by light sweet crudes and made refiners more willing to substitute across grades based on availability rather than quality alone.
  
  Last year, medium sour grades in the Dubai basket occasionally traded above Murban. The shift was not about quality; rather, it reflected supply dynamics. OPEC+ cuts tightened the availability of heavier sour barrels, while Murban continued to flow more freely. That left Murban as the (sometimes) lowest-priced deliverable crude in the basket, setting the effective floor for the benchmark. This evolving reality forced benchmark administrators to change their strategies.
  
  Platts changed its Dubai benchmark in January to give Murban a much larger role, allowing it to trade freely within the basket instead of being held above Dubai. The old premium system was replaced with a Murban Quality Adjustment that can move both ways, meaning Murban can be priced above or below other grades based on market conditions, with the adjustment calculated off recent price differences with Oman. That system also allows negative adjustments, where a seller would effectively compensate a buyer if Murban prices are below the rest of the basket. But in March, as the Iran war disrupted flows, Platts reversed part of that change and suspended negative adjustments, putting a floor back under Murban to keep barrels flowing into the system when it was one of the few grades still available.
  
  The result of all of this is a market in transition. While Platts Dubai remains a key reference point, its pricing power is increasingly constrained by structural and geopolitical pressures. In contrast, Murban Futures on IFAD have proven to be a mechanism that can function under stress, with pricing shaped by broader participation rather than by a handful of trades in a compressed window. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-21
  Air Canada Scraps Key U.S. Routes Amid High Fuel Prices
  Air Canada has announced the suspension of several key routes, including major U.S. connections, after jet fuel prices nearly doubled in the wake of the Iran-United States war that kicked off in late February. According to Air Canada, all service... Read more Air Canada has announced the suspension of several key routes, including major U.S. connections, after jet fuel prices nearly doubled in the wake of the Iran-United States war that kicked off in late February.
  
  According to Air Canada, all service from Toronto and Montreal to John F. Kennedy International Airport will be suspended starting June 1, 2026, and resume on October 25, 2026, while flights to Salt Lake City and Jacksonville will also be suspended. Air Canada will, however, maintain service to the New York area through LaGuardia and Newark, with approximately 34 daily departures still operating from across Canada.
  
  Jet fuel prices jumped from around $2.50 per gallon pre-war to over $4.30 per gallon by mid-April, exposing carriers with minimal oil price hedging to surging operating expenses.
  
  Air Canada joins a growing list of global carriers, including Lufthansa and KLM, that have recently trimmed their schedules to combat skyrocketing operating costs, while carriers like JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU), Spirit, and Frontier were already struggling with profitability before the surge. Jet fuel typically accounts for 20% to 30% of an airline's total operating expenses, making it one of the highest and most volatile costs, often rivaling labor costs.
  
  Last month, we reported that Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), United Airlines (NYSE:UAL), and Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) are the only three U.S. carriers expected to remain profitable if jet fuel prices persist around $4.00 per gallon. Delta and United maintain higher operating margins and a revenue mix weighted toward premium travel, which is less sensitive to price hikes than budget segments while Southwest Airlines has historically used aggressive hedging to lock in lower fuel costs, though it scaled back some positions in 2025. Delta also benefits from owning the Monroe Energy refinery, which provides a "leg-up" by partially protecting the company against the rising spread between crude oil and refined jet fuel.
  
  While airlines have been raising fares and baggage fees by $10-$50 to offset costs, budget carriers have less room to absorb these hikes without losing their price-sensitive customer base. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-21
  Gas Prices Dip Below $4 Per Gallon While Oil Prices Reverse Downtrend
  The national average price of gasoline in the United States has dipped below the $4 mark for the first time in weeks, with data compiled by GasBuddy from more than 12 million individual price reports across more than 150,000 gas stations revealing that... Read more The national average price of gasoline in the United States has dipped below the $4 mark for the first time in weeks, with data compiled by GasBuddy from more than 12 million individual price reports across more than 150,000 gas stations revealing that the national average fell by 9 cents from a week ago to $3.97 per gallon, with further drops to $3.65-$3.85 possible in the near future. However, AAA reported the national average at $4.042 per gallon on Monday, down from $4.125 a week ago.
  
  The disconnect comes from different methodologies used by GasBuddy and AAA. While GasBuddy aggregates real-time, user-reported prices, AAA relies on Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) data, which is based on credit card transactions and direct station surveys.
  
  According to GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan, retail lag could keep prices at local gas stations elevated due to gas stations which paid high prices earlier. As usual, gas prices continued to show wide variances across the 50 states, with motorists at Louisiana and Ohio paying just $3.684 per gallon compared to $5.837 in California and $5.385 per gallon in Washington State.
  
  The fuel price drop comes as oil prices retreated last week from recent highs amid hopes that a resolution between Washington and Tehran would be reached soon. However, oil prices reversed trend on Monday after Iran re-closed the vital Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping over the weekend , reviving fears of a collapse in the ongoing ceasefire. Brent crude for June delivery rose 5.6% to trade at 12.20 pm ET on Monday, while WTI crude for May delivery jumped 6.0% to trade at $88.75 per barrel.
  
  Unfortunately for U.S. motorists, the reprieve might be short-lived, with De Haan warning that, “However, that relief may prove fleeting. Oil prices surged in Sunday night trading after Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump signaled further escalation if Tehran does not come to an agreement. With global oil flows remaining at risk, renewed volatility is taking hold, and the continued back-and-forth is making any lasting resolution increasingly fragile. As a result, gasoline prices are likely to rise again in the days ahead, with diesel expected to follow if disruptions persist, and many of the states that exhibit price cycling could see increases in the next 24-48 hours.”
  
  De Haan’s sentiment is shared by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright who recently warned that gas prices are not likely to fall below $3 per gallon until 2027. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-21
  Kuwait Declares Force Majeure as U.S. Seizure of Iranian Ship Escalates Tensions
  Kuwait has declared force majeure on shipments of crude oil and refined products after disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz prevented some vessels from entering the Persian Gulf. The move comes as tensions in the Strait escalated again following the... Read more Kuwait has declared force majeure on shipments of crude oil and refined products after disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz prevented some vessels from entering the Persian Gulf.
  
  The move comes as tensions in the Strait escalated again following the U.S. seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the waterway.
  
  According to Reuters, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation has notified customers that it is invoking contractual clauses allowing it to withhold certain scheduled deliveries after the blockade hindered access to the Gulf. The measure is not expected to result in a complete halt to supply.
  
  The latest escalation follows a volatile weekend in which the Strait briefly reopened before closing again after Iran linked the reopening of the shipping lane to the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade targeting its oil exports.
  
  Iran’s foreign ministry said it has no plans for a new round of talks following the U.S. seizure of the vessel. U.S. President Donald Trump said a delegation led by Vice President JD Vance is heading to Islamabad for talks. Pakistan has tightened security in the capital ahead of the potential negotiations.
  
  Iran has warned that it cannot guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz if its oil exports continue to be restricted, saying that security for shipping in the waterway cannot be separated from pressure on its own crude flows.
  
  Shipping activity in and around the Strait has been disrupted again, with vessels altering routes and operators reassessing transit risks through one of the world’s most important oil shipping lanes.
  
  After plunging late last week, oil prices rebounded in early trading as markets reacted to the renewed disruption and the risk of further constraints on flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  The renewed pressure also comes as Iran-aligned Houthis have threatened to target the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising concerns about additional risks to alternative export routes for Middle East crude.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-21
  World’s Biggest Physical Oil Trader Warns of Months of Price Volatility
  Seasonally lower demand ahead of the peak summer driving season and the continued turbulence in the Middle East could extend the violent oil price swings for months ahead, the top executive of oil trader Gunvor has told the Financial Times. “It is... Read more Seasonally lower demand ahead of the peak summer driving season and the continued turbulence in the Middle East could extend the violent oil price swings for months ahead, the top executive of oil trader Gunvor has told the Financial Times.
  
  “It is a little bit of a more challenging, softer period that we need to be careful of,” Gary Pedersen, chairman and CEO of Gunvor Group, told FT in an interview published on Monday.
  
  “Frankly, it could be very choppy,” commented on the oil market Pedersen, who took over the top job at one of the world’s biggest physical oil trading groups after a management buy-out in December 2025.
  
  Before the big shake-up at the group, Gunvor was accused by the U.S. Treasury Department of being a Kremlin puppet and was denied a license to take over the international operations of Russia’s second-largest oil producer Lukoil, which the United States sanctioned last autumn.
  
  The recent violent swings in oil futures prices were partly due to what Gunvor’s new head Pedersen attributed in the FT interview to a “masterclass” in political messaging from U.S. President Donald Trump.
  
  Oil futures prices have sold off sharply several times in recent weeks following various comments from President Trump that a deal with Iran is imminent or the war is “very close to over”.
  
  But oil futures markets haven’t fully priced in the major disruption to physical supply that has crashed with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the severely constrained Middle Eastern crude and fuel supply.
  
  Physical crude supplies remain very tight as buyers across the world scramble for replacement of the oil from the Middle East, Gunvor’s Pedersen told FT.
  
  In a sign that buyers are rushing to lock in supply, empty supertankers have left Asia en route to the U.S. via the Cape of Good Hope in one of the biggest queues of vessels ever seen at sea—ships sent to load U.S. crude. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-21
  India Allows More Russian Ship Insurance as Oil Imports from Moscow Soar
  India has recently raised the number of Russian insurers allowed to provide protection and indemnity (P&I) cover for ships docking at Indian ports, as Indian refiners are once again boosting imports of Russian crude thanks to a U.S. waiver. The number... Read more India has recently raised the number of Russian insurers allowed to provide protection and indemnity (P&I) cover for ships docking at Indian ports, as Indian refiners are once again boosting imports of Russian crude thanks to a U.S. waiver.
  
  The number of Russian insurers eligible to cover marine indemnity and protection has been raised to 11, up from eight previously, India's Directorate General of Shipping has said, as carried by Reuters.
  
  India has recently allowed new Russia-based insurers to provide cover for ships docking at Indian ports, especially such carrying oil cargoes to the world's third-largest crude oil importer.
  
  These Russian firms are not part of the International Group of P&I Clubs, but they provide cover to vessels loaded with Russian oil. In recent years, Western insurers have steered clear of Russian cargoes due to the Western sanctions on Russia's oil exports.
  
  India is now back to buying Russian crude oil en masse, following a U.S. waiver allowing crude loaded on vessels to be purchased without penalties.
  
  The U.S. Treasury Department has just extended the waiver for two weeks until mid-May.
  
  After the U.S. issued the first sanction waiver in March, a race began for Russian oil cargoes at sea, with several tankers even diverting from China to supply their cargoes to Indian buyers, according to shipping data from earlier this month. In just the first two weeks of March, the volume of Russian crude on the water fell by more than 20 million barrels, which is equivalent to a drawdown rate of over 2 million barrels per day, Vortexa reported in mid-March.
  
  Refiners in Asia have used the sanctions waiver to stock up on Russian crude, with India actively scooping up large volumes of Russia's oil, after it was discouraged by the U.S. early this year to continue importing high volumes of Russian oil. Source: Oilprice.com

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