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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
1 139.00
+7.00
1 195.00
+20.00
Aug 10
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	1 139.00	+7.00	1 195.00	+20.00	Aug 10

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
598.21	+6.82	771.63	+7.24	1 311.62	+34.67	Aug 11

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	520	618	-98	645	690	-45	1 195	1 457	-262	Aug 11
Singapore	602	642	-40	842	779	+63	1 160	1 450	-290	Aug 11
Fujairah	605	590	+15	805	721	+84	1 310	1 513	-203	Aug 11
Houston	480	613	-133	688	708	-20	1 190	1 330	-140	Aug 11

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Latest News
- 2026-08-11
  Oil steadies near one-week highs as US-Iran peace deal hopes dim
  Oil prices steadied on Tuesday at more than one-week highs amid fading hopes of a deal between the U.S. and Iran to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after President Donald Trump demanded compensation for damage the U.S. has incurred. Brent... Read more Oil prices steadied on Tuesday at more than one-week highs amid fading hopes of a deal between the U.S. and Iran to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after President Donald Trump demanded compensation for damage the U.S. has incurred.
  
  Brent crude futures fell 10 cents, or 0.11%, to $87.62 a barrel by 0405 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 5 cents, or 0.06%, to $82.08 a barrel.
  
  Both benchmarks rose more than 5% on Monday to their highest since July 31, after Trump responded to Iran’s conditions for a peace deal with his own demands that Iran pay compensation for people killed in wars, attacks and protests, which is likely to complicate efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  Later in the day he added that the U.S. had control of the strait and had swept the strategic oil waterway for Iranian mines.
  
  "There appears to be a gulf, no pun intended, between the U.S. and Iran over what any agreement would actually look like," said Tim Waterer, chief market ‌analyst at ⁠KCM Trade.
  
  "As a result, some of the optimism that built up last week is being unwound, giving oil prices a decidedly bid tone."
  
  Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco has postponed the restart of its 400,000-barrel-per-day Jazan refinery to August 30 after the Houthis claimed two attacks on the plant on Sunday.
  
  "The chokehold risk around both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb remains highly significant. Even intermittent restrictions or the threat of further incidents keep insurance costs elevated and force longer shipping routes ... hence energy flows look likely to stay constrained near term," Waterer said.
  
  In a note on Monday, analysts at Barclays said that in the week ending August 7, crude oil and refined product net exports through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 3 million barrels per day, down from 4.4 million bpd the previous week.
  
  Markets will likely remain in a state of morbid detachment if oil continues to slip through both blockades via ship-to-ship transfers and overland routes, said IG’s analyst Tony Sycamore.
  
  Meanwhile, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is offering spot crude in a tender, its eighth issued since the start of June as the UAE state oil company works to move oil from inside the Strait of Hormuz. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-08-11
  Global Diesel Crunch Worsens Ahead of Peak Winter Demand
  As peace in the Persian Gulf remains elusive and Ukrainian drones keep raining on Russian refineries, a global fuel crisis is looming larger by the day as demand is set to increase in the coming months, especially for diesel. Shortages are already... Read more As peace in the Persian Gulf remains elusive and Ukrainian drones keep raining on Russian refineries, a global fuel crisis is looming larger by the day as demand is set to increase in the coming months, especially for diesel.
  
  Shortages are already reality in some parts of the world. In Southeast Asia, Reuters reported last week, palm oil farmers are seeing diesel supply shortages and spiking prices. In the United States, diesel fuel exports hit an all-time high in the first week of August, running at an average daily rate of 1.9 million barrels. Meanwhile, Russia, the world’s number-two diesel exporter, has banned exports in order to deal with the local supply squeeze caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries.
  
  The situation is quite far from perfect for large fuel importers such as the European Union because it is now facing new competitors such as Brazil and Turkey, which previously took in a lot of Russian diesel fuel. Still, with that gone, they have to compete with U.S. barrels as supply from the other big refining hub in the Middle East remains severely disrupted.
  
  In the European Union, as many as 30 refineries closed between 2009 and 2024, with another 400,000 barrels daily in capacity set for closure in 2025 amid Brussels’ tightening emission reduction rules that have raised costs for refiners substantially—and made the originally trade-focused bloc a lot more vulnerable to global market disruptions.
  Related: BofA: Hormuz Needs 10 Times More Ships to Stabilize Oil Markets
  
  “Europe has a tremendous diesel problem,” Eugene Lindell, head of refined products at consultancy FGE NexantECA, told Bloomberg. “It will get ugly in the sense that you will probably see extremely high flat prices.” These high prices will spread to everything from consumer goods to services and, according to FGE’s Lindell, translate into pressure on political circles.
  
  “We’re in a diesel supply crunch right now because none of the Persian Gulf refineries can get product out,” Rabobank senior energy strategist Joe DeLaura said, as quoted by the Wall Street Journal earlier this month. “Crude oil is just the input, but diesel is the everything the industrial economy runs on,” he also said. “Everything in agriculture, everything in construction, everything in mining. Also everything on the supply and distribution side runs on diesel.”
  
  Big Oil majors have also been sounding the alarm on a supply squeeze in fuels that is a lot more serious than the squeeze in crude oil, but it has led to nothing but an attack on the industry by President Trump, who told Exxon and Chevron they were making too much money and had to pass some of it on to consumers.
  
  Meanwhile, those record diesel exports are costing the United States. These have been running at rates of 1.5 million barrels daily for five weeks in a row before rising to the record high, according to Bloomberg. Because refineries cannot produce more diesel at the moment, fuel sellers have been dipping into inventories. As a result, these are now at the lowest since 1996, Bloomberg reported, with peak demand season right around the corner and refinery maintenance season even closer.
  
  Prices are, as usual, a good indicator of the supply security of diesel fuel. In Europe, the price of diesel has gone up by 40% since mid-June, while the price of crude oil has only added 5% over the same period, Bloomberg said in its report on the state of diesel supply from last week. Inventories of the fuel in the EU have shrunk by 30% since March—and the EU has cut off its access not only to Russian fuels but to fuels made from Russian crude in third countries.
  
  This would leave European fuel importers even more exposed to U.S. supply, but that is not going to remain at record rates, according to some analysts. “Gulf Coast refiners can’t keep exporting diesel to Northwest Europe indefinitely. They have their own fish to fry,” Kpler’s head of clean petroleum products Zameer Yusof told Bloomberg.
  
  Asia, meanwhile, has its own fuel supply problems and will not be in a rush to share its diesel, such as it is, with the Europeans. “We never fully recovered from refining losses in the Middle East, and have also lost Russian capacity,” oil analyst June Goh from Sparta Capital said, as quoted by the publication. “The misery of Europe is not an immediate crisis, but one down the line.”
  
  If we add natural gas to diesel, the crisis becomes a lot more severe. The EU’s gas stocks are much lower than the seasonal average, analysts are concerned shortages might emerge by winter, and no one is doing anything about it as gas buyers wait for lower LNG prices—which are rather unlikely at the moment. Unfortunately for large energy importers, relief in global diesel supply is also rather unlikely for the time being. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-11
  MABUX: Global bunker market to continue upward trend on Aug. 11 amid uncertainty over the situation in Hormuz.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — maintained its upward momentum on Aug. 11 for the second consecutive session: 380 HSFO: USD/MT: 591.39 (+6.92) VLSFO: USD/MT: 764.39 (+9.85) MGO:... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — maintained its upward momentum on Aug. 11 for the second consecutive session:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 591.39 (+6.92)
  VLSFO: USD/MT: 764.39 (+9.85)
  MGO: USD/MT: 1 276.95 (+3.60)
  
  As of Aug. 11, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which monitors the spread between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP), indicated the following trends across the four major global bunkering hubs—Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: Fujairah remained the only overvalued port in this fuel segment, with its premium narrowing by a marginal $1. The other three ports remained undervalued. Discount levels increased by $2 in Rotterdam, while declining by $12 in Singapore and $6 in Houston. Houston's MDI remained above the $100 mark.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Rotterdam shifted into the undercharge zone, becoming the only underpriced port in this bunker segment, with its discount widening by $17. The other three ports remained overpriced, with premiums increasing by $20 in Singapore, $15 in Fujairah, and $3 in Houston. Fujairah's MDI exceeded the $100 mark, while Houston remained close to the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.
  
  • MGO LS segment: All four ports continued to be undervalued. Discount margins widened by $14 in Rotterdam, and by $4 each in Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston. MDIs in Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore remained well above the $100 mark.
  
  MABUX expects the Global bunker market to continue its upward trend on Aug. 11 amid uncertainty over the situation in Hormuz: 380 HSFO: plus 2-10 USD/MT, VLSFO: plus 3-15 USD/MT, MGO LS: plus 5–20 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-08-11
  The Hormuz Crisis Has Forever Changed the Economics of Energy Security
  Complex systems reveal their true characteristics only under stress. Disturbance exposes assumptions that routine operation conceals and becomes the catalyst for adaptation. Capital reassesses risk, governments reconsider policy, and markets establish... Read more Complex systems reveal their true characteristics only under stress. Disturbance exposes assumptions that routine operation conceals and becomes the catalyst for adaptation. Capital reassesses risk, governments reconsider policy, and markets establish a new equilibrium. The resulting system may ultimately prove stronger than the one that preceded it, but it is never identical.
  
  Recent developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz provide one such moment. Whether they ultimately prove to be a lasting geopolitical inflection point remains uncertain. More immediately, they have challenged one of the assumptions upon which the modern energy system has long operated: that uninterrupted access through one of the world's most important energy corridors could largely be taken for granted. If that assumption has begun to change, capital will respond as it always has. It will search for a new equilibrium. That process will not diminish the enduring importance of the Gulf's extraordinary resource base, but it may begin to alter the way resilience is valued alongside geology and cost.
  
  This new equilibrium is explained analogously by the Second Law of Thermodynamics – one of the foundational principles of physics, whose implications extend far beyond the natural sciences. It states that ordered systems naturally progress toward disorder unless energy is continually invested to sustain them. A wine glass resting intact on a table represents a highly ordered state. If it is knocked to the floor and shatters, the process is effectively irreversible. The fragments can be gathered, melted and fashioned into another glass, but never without the expenditure of additional energy, nor into precisely the same ordered system that existed before. The lesson is not that order cannot be recreated, but that it is never recreated freely or in exactly the same form.
  
  The same principle provides a useful framework through which to view complex human systems. Economies, institutions, supply chains and international markets are ordered structures assembled over decades through immense investments of capital, technology and political cooperation. Their stability is often mistaken for permanence because it has become so familiar. Yet, like all ordered systems, they require continual reinforcement. Once disturbed, they do not return to their previous equilibrium. They reorganize, sometimes rapidly and violently, more often gradually and almost imperceptibly, into a new one.
  
  The Strait’s role in the global energy system
  
  The Strait of Hormuz has long been described as the world's most important energy chokepoint. While accurate, the description understates its significance. Its importance lies not simply in the volume of hydrocarbons that transit its waters, but in the concentration of economic, financial, and geopolitical systems that converge within a remarkably narrow corridor, and all operated previously under the assumption that the Strait would function without interruption.
  
  Recent events demonstrated how quickly that assumption can falter. Public debate focused on whether the Strait remained physically open. Markets appeared to ask a different question. They responded not to a sustained closure, but to the erosion of certainty itself.
  
  At the height of the disruption, vessel crossings through the Strait declined sharply while crude exports fell materially from previous levels. Most crude tankers transited with their Automatic Identification System transponders disabled, reflecting heightened commercial caution. Although export volumes recovered somewhat subsequently, inbound ballast traffic lagged, indicating that commercial confidence strengthened more slowly than physical flows.
  
  It is here that Iran's asymmetric advantage becomes apparent. Iran does not need to dominate the Gulf militarily, nor permanently close the Strait, to impose meaningful costs on the global energy system. It needs only to convince market participants that uninterrupted passage can no longer be assumed. Higher insurance premiums, precautionary inventories, deferred investment and increased freight costs become the economic consequences of uncertainty rather than the physical destruction of vessels. The objective is not necessarily to deny access, but to erode confidence in the system itself.
  
  That strategy is reinforced by a second asymmetry: endurance. For more than four decades, Iran has demonstrated an unusual willingness to absorb sanctions, diplomatic isolation and sustained economic pressure while pursuing longer-term strategic objectives. Even US President Donald Trump acknowledged this characteristic, describing Iranians as "very tough" people. In asymmetric competition, the capacity to absorb pressure over time can be as consequential as the ability to project force.
  
  This leverage derives primarily from geography. Any actor capable of introducing persistent uncertainty into a critical transport corridor acquires disproportionate influence over the system that depends upon it, particularly an actor with incredible tolerance for pain. Alternative export routes undoubtedly improve resilience, but they do not eliminate the underlying vulnerability. Every pipeline, export terminal and bypass route requires years of investment, engineering and political coordination to construct, yet comparatively little effort to disrupt. That asymmetry cannot be engineered away; it can only be managed.
  
  The consequences extend well beyond the Gulf. The immediate disruption matters, but the more important question is how markets respond once the decades-long certainty itself has been challenged. Uninterrupted access through the Strait can no longer be assumed with the same confidence as before, and the cost of resilience is beginning to change. That adjustment will not occur through a single geopolitical event or market reaction. It will emerge gradually, as investors incorporate a different assessment of risk into long-term capital allocation.
  
  The new premium
  
  If the significance of the Strait lies in the assumptions it challenged, the more important question is how markets respond. The history of the energy industry is one of continual adaptation. Capital, technology and infrastructure have never remained static. They respond to changing economic, technological and geopolitical realities by creating new forms of order.
  
  Thus, a return to the broken glass. The lesson of the Second Law of Thermodynamics is not that order cannot be restored, but that restoration is neither automatic nor costless. Every major geopolitical shock has left behind an energy system that was reorganized rather than restored. The rise of new producing basins, the globalization of liquefied natural gas, the shale revolution, and successive geopolitical crises have each reshaped the system that preceded them. None recreated the previous equilibrium – each established a new one.
  
  The events surrounding Hormuz should be viewed through that same lens. It would be premature to conclude that the global energy system has entered a fundamentally different era or that Gulf producers have somehow lost their structural advantages. The Gulf remains home to some of the world's largest and lowest-cost hydrocarbon resources, and neither geology nor economics has fundamentally changed. What has changed is confidence. The assumption of uninterrupted passage that underpinned decades of investment will not be restored to what it was before this disruption.
  
  Yet capital rarely waits for certainty before moving. Investment decisions are based on probabilities, not outcomes. As resilience begins to command a greater premium alongside geology and cost, the first change will not be where hydrocarbons are produced, but how they are valued. Geography has always influenced energy economics through distance to market, infrastructure and broader above-ground risk. The importance of the region’s geography itself is unlikely to change – but the discount rate capital assigns to it might.
  
  The first evidence of such a repricing is likely to emerge across the Atlantic Margin. Producers, including Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and the United States, already combine competitive resource bases with comparatively resilient access to global markets. Their strategic position may improve because geography itself is beginning to command a higher premium, not because their geology has changed. Gulf producers would remain indispensable to global supply, yet Atlantic Margin resources could become incrementally more attractive where comparable economics are coupled with lower geopolitical exposure.
  
  The Atlantic Margin carries its own above-ground risks, including resource bases that remain smaller, fiscal terms still subject to political change, and physical exposure to hurricanes and weather-related disruption the Gulf does not face to the same degree. International operators have been present in the Gulf since mid-last century, often during periods considerably more volatile than the present one. Resilience is not simply a function of geography; it also reflects how well a basin's risks are understood and priced, and Gulf risk has been priced by experienced operators for decades. This indicates that the repricing of resilience is likely to be gradual and contested rather than a wholesale reallocation of capital.
  
  Over a longer horizon, the same logic may reshape capital allocation more broadly. Mature producing provinces may attract greater investment through enhanced oil recovery. Deepwater exploration could become increasingly attractive where it offers resilient access to global markets. Advances in technology may also encourage the replication of shale development beyond the United States and Argentina. None of these outcomes is predetermined, nor do they diminish the enduring importance of Gulf production. They simply illustrate how a gradual repricing of resilience can influence where capital seeks its next opportunities.
  
  The new equilibrium
  
  The global energy system has repeatedly adapted to geopolitical shocks, technological breakthroughs and changing patterns of trade. The situation in the Strait is but one manifestation of that enduring reality, albeit one of exceptional consequence.
  
  The Gulf will remain one of the world's most important sources of oil and gas for decades to come. Its resource quality, production costs and strategic importance remain unmatched; however, the question is not whether geology has become less important, but how much of a premium resilience now commands alongside it. As it does, the competitive landscape will evolve not through the displacement of Gulf production, but through a gradual repricing of relative advantage across the broader energy system.
  
  The consequences extend well beyond the Strait itself. Producers that combine competitive resources with resilient access to market may find their strategic position incrementally strengthened. Others may respond by diversifying export routes, expanding enhanced oil recovery, pursuing new deepwater opportunities or accelerating technological innovation. The system will not reorganize through government policy or military strategy alone. It will evolve through millions of independent investment decisions, each responding to changing perceptions of risk and return.
  
  That is the Strait's enduring significance. It did not merely expose a geopolitical vulnerability — it has begun changing the framework through which long-term energy investments are evaluated. As resilience earns a lasting premium alongside geology and cost, political geography ceases to be simply a measure of above-ground risk. It becomes part of production economics itself, and that reallocation will carry significant, lasting consequences for the global energy system.
  
  Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views or beliefs of Rystad Energy. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-11
  Trump Faces Growing Pressure to Restrict U.S. Oil Exports
  The U.S. oil industry got a scare last week. News reports claimed that the Trump administration may be considering an export ban on crude oil and refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel in order to bring those prices down—prices which have... Read more The U.S. oil industry got a scare last week. News reports claimed that the Trump administration may be considering an export ban on crude oil and refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel in order to bring those prices down—prices which have been elevated considerably by the reduction of oil supplies worldwide in the wake of the Iran war. But a Trump administration spokesperson said the administration has no plans to ban exports of oil or natural gas products.
  
  It's important to note that there is an old adage in Washington, D.C.: "Nothing is true until it is officially denied." The administration has probably discussed such a ban. Whether it will implement one is the question. With exports of distillate fuels (which include diesel and fuel oil) hitting the highest on record and gasoline exports bouncing between about 750,000 and 1 million barrels per day, American consumers may be wondering why the administration doesn't act now.
  
  The answer is complex, as I detailed in my piece in May entitled "Will the U. S. curtail oil exports as fuel prices rise?" But the short version is two-fold:
  
  The oil industry has always enjoyed the right to export refined products such as gasoline and diesel. The U.S. has refinery capacity in excess of its needs, and so the industry has sold the excess abroad. Only more recently did the industry gain the unfettered right to export crude oil and natural gas, arguing that nearly every other American industry has the right to sell its products to the highest bidder across the world. Why should the oil and gas industry be singled out? Well, it no longer is, and it's been that way for more than a decade.
  Until a recent tirade against the oil companies over high gasoline prices, President Donald Trump touted his support of the oil industry and delivered on many industry-friendly policies. His support was not surprising since, by one estimate, the industry spent $450 million on campaign contributions, lobbying and advertising to support Trump and Republicans in the 2024 election cycle. It's hard to see now how Trump would defy an industry which is so powerful and which supported him to such a great degree.
  To implement an export ban, the president would have to declare an emergency. It's not hard to see how the closing of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would be seen as an emergency. But it's not clear how much such a ban would lower prices. It depends on whether such a ban included refined products such as gasoline and diesel and not just crude oil. As it turns out, not all oil is the same. The United States produces more than it needs of what is called light sweet crude ("sweet" because it is low in sulfur content, a pollutant that must be removed) and less than it needs of what is called heavy sour crude (which, not surprisingly, has higher sulfur content).
  
  U.S. refineries are set up to use a certain mix of light and heavy crude; hence we export some light crude and import some heavy crude to get the right supply of both. Therefore, restricting exports of light crude won't help refineries make more finished products since the key to that is having the aforementioned right balance of light and heavy crude.
  
  My guess is that unless gasoline and diesel prices remain elevated for months more, export controls will remain off the table. But if the high prices don't dissipate by then, the American public will be clamoring for a solution. Don't be surprised if the opposition party starts pounding the table for some type of export restrictions in order to score some points with the public and against the president.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-11
  Bullish Oil Bets Shrink for a Second Week Running, COT Data Show
  Money managers have reduced their bullish bets on both Brent and WTI crude futures over the past two weeks despite little progress on a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In the latest reporting week to August 4, portfolio managers trimmed... Read more Money managers have reduced their bullish bets on both Brent and WTI crude futures over the past two weeks despite little progress on a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  In the latest reporting week to August 4, portfolio managers trimmed their net long position in NYMEX WTI by 7,257 lots to 101,050 lots, data from the exchanges found. The net long position, the difference between bullish and bearish bets, in ICE Brent crude oil futures was slashed by 11%, or by 20,361 lots to 164,722 lots.
  
  This was the second consecutive weekly decline in speculative positions in the two key crude oil futures benchmarks as traders and speculators are hesitant to add more bullish bets on a price rally.
  
  Oil prices have dropped over the past two weeks amid hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen and Iran and Oman could reach a deal on a joint management of some of the lanes.
  
  “Speculative sentiment turned more cautious last week,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note early on Monday.
  
  According to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, the energy complex saw reduced exposure in the weekly Commitment of Traders report through August 4 despite persistent supply risks.
  
  “Renewed price weakness drove a 25k reduction in the combined crude net long to 266k contracts, following 171k of net buying during the previous three weeks,” Hansen said.
  
  “Despite persistent geopolitical supply risks, positioning continues to signal limited conviction in a sustained price rally,” the commodity expert noted.
  
  Meanwhile, crude oil prices began this week with a gain following a statement by Iran setting six demands for a peace deal with the United States and claims from the Houthis that they had struck an Aramco refinery in Jazan.
  
  As of 10:00 a.m. ET, the Brent front-month futures were up by 2.70% at $85.81. The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was trading 2.69% higher at $80.28. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-11
  BofA: Hormuz Needs 10 Times More Ships to Stabilize Oil Markets
  Bank of America (BoFA) is warning that oil prices could continue climbing into the winter if the U.S. and Iran fail to reach an agreement reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with severe shortages already emerging in diesel, gasoline and global natural gas... Read more Bank of America (BoFA) is warning that oil prices could continue climbing into the winter if the U.S. and Iran fail to reach an agreement reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with severe shortages already emerging in diesel, gasoline and global natural gas markets.
  
  “We’ve been expecting oil to be in the $70 to $80 a barrel range for Brent on the assumption that we were going to see some resolution,” Francisco Blanch, Bank of America’s head of commodities and derivatives research, told CNBC on Monday. “But if we don’t, we’re going to keep creeping higher into the winter.”
  
  The warning comes as negotiations over reopening Hormuz remain unresolved and tanker traffic through the world’s most important oil chokepoint remains a fraction of pre-war levels.
  
  Blanch said only around 5 to 10 ships per day are currently passing through Hormuz, compared with roughly 140 before the war. With some crude now being rerouted through Saudi Arabia and the UAE, traffic would need to recover to around 80 to 100 ships per day just to stabilize energy markets.
  
  “We have enough crude oil for now, but we have true shortages in diesel markets, gasoline markets and also global gas,” Blanch said. “We have some serious shortfalls in end products in the energy markets right now.”
  
  Those shortages are showing up most dramatically in refining margins. Blanch said diesel crack spreads–the difference between diesel and crude prices–have surged to roughly $80-$85 per barrel, meaning the diesel differential alone is now higher than the price of WTI crude.
  
  “That’s kind of never happened before except for a few occasions,” he said, adding that gasoline differentials are also extremely high and refining margins have reached record levels.
  
  Inventories offer considerably less protection than during previous supply disruptions. “We don’t have the inventories that we used to have,” Blanch said, warning that failure to secure an agreement could bring another escalation.
  
  Brent crude was trading at $86.12 per barrel Monday morning, up 3.08%, while WTI was near $80.72, up 3.25%.
  
  Bank of America is also urging investors to become more defensive as its bull-and-bear indicator climbs to 9.7, its highest since 2021. Chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett has recommended reducing exposure to risk assets rather than adding to positions, writing that the bank remains in a “Retreat/Rotate not Reload” camp. U.S. equities remain near record highs, leaving investors heavily exposed if another surge in oil and fuel prices spills into inflation and the wider economy. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-11
  Egypt and Libya Near $1 Billion Oil Pipeline Deal
  Egypt and Libya are reportedly nearing a deal to build an 800-kilometer oil pipeline connecting Tobruk with Alexandria, creating a direct route for growing Libyan crude production to reach Egyptian refineries as the war with Iran disrupts Egypt’s traditional... Read more Egypt and Libya are reportedly nearing a deal to build an 800-kilometer oil pipeline connecting Tobruk with Alexandria, creating a direct route for growing Libyan crude production to reach Egyptian refineries as the war with Iran disrupts Egypt’s traditional Gulf supplies.
  
  The proposed pipeline would cost more than $1 billion, according to a government official who spoke to Asharq Bloomberg on condition of anonymity. The two countries are now studying financing, implementation and the pipeline’s final capacity, which would be determined by Libya’s available export volumes and the processing capacity of Egyptian refineries.
  
  The project comes as Egypt scrambles to replace crude supplies disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Cairo is seeking to import at least 1 million barrels of Libyan crude per month after Kuwaiti supplies were suspended, according to an Egyptian government official previously cited by Asharq Bloomberg.
  
  A direct Tobruk-Alexandria pipeline would give Egypt access to Libyan barrels without relying on tanker shipments, while providing Libya with another outlet for crude as production climbs to its highest level in more than a decade.
  
  Libya is currently producing around 1.43 million barrels per day of crude and another 49,000 bpd of condensate, bringing total liquids production to roughly 1.48 million bpd. National Oil Corp. Chairman Masoud Suleman has said the country is pushing toward 1.5 million bpd.
  
  The pipeline plan follows talks between Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly and Libya’s Government of National Unity Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh on expanding cooperation in oil refining, natural gas and electricity.
  
  For Libya, the project could provide another market for rising production while allowing some crude to return as refined products for domestic consumption. Egypt would gain additional feedstock for its Mediterranean refining system as Gulf supply routes remain exposed to the Iran conflict.
  
  Libya’s National Oil Corp. did not respond to Asharq Bloomberg’s request for comment. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-11
  Indian Refiners Cut LPG Losses in August
  The biggest Indian state-controlled refiners that have been selling liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) on the retail market have seen their losses on these sales narrow so far in August, an Indian energy ministry official said on Monday. Indian Oil Corporation... Read more The biggest Indian state-controlled refiners that have been selling liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) on the retail market have seen their losses on these sales narrow so far in August, an Indian energy ministry official said on Monday.
  
  Indian Oil Corporation Ltd., Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) have seen their losses narrow nearly threefold this month compared to July, India's junior oil minister Suresh Gopi told Parliament in a written reply on Monday, carried by Reuters.
  
  The revenue loss has now narrowed to $1.97 (188 Indian rupees) per one household cylinder of LPG, widely used as a cooking fuel in India, down from $5.25 (500 rupees) in July, the official said.
  
  The Indian government compensates fuel retailers for their losses on sales of LPG. This compensation comes with a lag and at below market rates.
  
  Since the beginning of the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, India has been scrambling for LPG supply, part of which was trapped in the Persian Gulf.
  
  India has boosted imports of oil and LPG from places that don't need the Strait of Hormuz, but costs are usually higher, and the journey times are much longer compared to the shorter routes from the Persian Gulf to India.
  
  India's government in April urged local refiners to increase production of liquefied petroleum gas—the country's main cooking fuel, amid the supply crunch resulting from the war in the Middle East.
  
  Some 60% of Indian households rely on liquefied petroleum gas as their primary cooking fuel, and the blockage at the Strait of Hormuz, where 90% of all Indian LPG imports pass through, has been immediately felt by consumers.
  
  The disruption has caused soaring prices and, as a consequence, demand destruction. The government, meanwhile, has tried to tackle the crisis by redirecting LPG supply from industrial users to household consumers to ensure availability of cooking fuel. Indian authorities are also pushing for an expansion of the city pipeline gas networks to replace LPG cylinders and use where possible. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-11
  Heat Waves Could Cost the EU 1% of GDP, Dutch Bank Says
  This year’s heat waves and related productivity declines and lower agricultural output could erase as much as 1% of the gross domestic product of the European Union, wiping out most of the EU’s economic growth expected for 2026, according to Dutch bank... Read more This year’s heat waves and related productivity declines and lower agricultural output could erase as much as 1% of the gross domestic product of the European Union, wiping out most of the EU’s economic growth expected for 2026, according to Dutch bank Triodos.
  
  The bank and wealth manager, which focuses on financing environmentally and socially sustainable projects, expects labor productivity losses due to the extreme heat waves to reduce the European Union’s GDP by some 0.6% this year. Agricultural output alone is expected to fall by 3% to 7% due to the many heat waves, the bank said in a report carried by Reuters.
  
  After reaching 1.5% in 2025, EU GDP growth is projected to slow down to 1.1% this year, the European Commission said in its spring forecast nearly three months after the war in Iran crippled oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The Commission revised down its GDP growth estimate by 0.3 percentage point due to the new energy shock, expecting inflation to rise to 3.1%, an upward revision of a full percentage point compared to the Autumn 2025 Forecast.
  
  “Higher food prices, constrained power generation and higher electricity prices, and disruption to roads, ‎rail and inland waterways add to the damage,” analysts at Triodos said in their report this weekend.
  
  France, the EU’s second-largest economy behind Germany, is set to be worst hit by the loss of GDP and labor productivity, according to the bank.
  
  GDP in France could dip by about 1.4% due to several extreme heat waves this summer, meaning that the economy could contract by as much as 0.6%.
  
  This summer, France has been forced to slash nuclear power generation amid low water levels on the rivers used to cool reactors.
  
  The power supply and energy issues have spread to central and eastern Europe, with extreme heat and drought disrupting Europe's energy system, reducing refinery efficiency, forcing cuts to nuclear and hydropower generation, and driving diesel refining margins toward 20-year highs.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com

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