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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
904.00
-91.00
1 150.00
-5.00
Apr 20
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	904.00	-91.00	1 150.00	-5.00	Apr 20

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
727.46	-0.93	848.10	-0.80	1 376.36	-9.47	Apr 22

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	592	688	-96	662	766	-104	1 150	1 265	-115	Apr 22
Singapore	620	715	-95	682	852	-170	1 202	1 258	-56	Apr 22
Fujairah	574	661	-87	682	821	-139	1 340	1 321	+19	Apr 22
Houston	617	669	-52	810	775	+35	1 100	1 188	-88	Apr 22

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Latest News
- 2026-04-22
  Oil prices turn lower as investors assess outlook for US-Iran peace talks
  Oil prices turned lower on Wednesday after rising about $1 at the start of trade in Asia, with investors assessing the outlook for U.S.-Iran peace talks following the U.S. extension of a ceasefire. Brent crude futures were down 21 cents, or 0.2%, at... Read more Oil prices turned lower on Wednesday after rising about $1 at the start of trade in Asia, with investors assessing the outlook for U.S.-Iran peace talks following the U.S. extension of a ceasefire.
  Brent crude futures were down 21 cents, or 0.2%, at $98.27 a barrel at 0039 GMT, after touching $99.38 earlier in the session. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $89.39, after climbing as high as $90.71.
  Both benchmark contracts rose about 3% on Tuesday.
  U.S. President Donald Trump said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire with Iran, hours before its expiry, to allow talks to continue to end a war that has killed thousands and shaken the global economy.
  The move appeared unilateral, and it was not immediately clear whether Iran, or U.S. ally Israel, would agree to extend the truce, which began two weeks ago.
  "With the outcome of talks still unclear and the Strait of Hormuz closed, the market lacks clear direction," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities.
  "Unless fighting resumes, prices are likely to stay near the current levels for now," Kikukawa said.
  Trump also said the U.S. Navy would maintain its blockade of Iran’s ports and shore, which Iranian leaders have called an act of war.
  There was no immediate comment from Iran’s most senior leaders on Trump’s ceasefire extension. Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, said Iran had not asked for the extension and repeated its position of breaking the U.S. blockade by force.
  
  Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally channels about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, remained broadly halted on Tuesday with only three ships passing along the waterway in the past 24 hours, shipping data showed.
  Elsewhere, the Israeli military said Hezbollah fired rockets at its troops in southern Lebanon, accusing the Iran-backed group of violating a ceasefire ahead of U.S.-mediated talks with Lebanon this week. There was no immediate comment from Hezbollah.
  In Europe, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the Druzhba oil pipeline pumping Russian oil onto the continent is ready to resume operation. Three industry sources, however, said Russia is set to stop oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline starting on May 1.
  Later on Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration will publish inventory data.
  U.S. crude oil inventory fell by 4.5 million barrels last week after three weeks of gain, while gasoline and distillate stock also declined, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.
  Analysts estimated a 1.2 million-barrel draw of crude for the week ended April 17. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-04-22
  Iraq Turns to Risky Overland Routes as Oil Exports Collapse
  Iraq has been facing a critical oil export crisis since tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz largely seized up. About a month ago, Iraq reached a temporary agreement with Iran to allow its ships to sail through the waterway; however, additional... Read more Iraq has been facing a critical oil export crisis since tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz largely seized up. About a month ago, Iraq reached a temporary agreement with Iran to allow its ships to sail through the waterway; however, additional war risk premiums for Persian Gulf transits have increased dramatically, rendering transport through the route uneconomical.
  
  Unlike Iran, which relies heavily on a shadow fleet of tankers to transport its oil, Iraq lacks a large national fleet, forcing it to rely on third parties. Lack of shipping forced Iraq’s oil production to collapse by 80% to roughly 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day, turning into an existential crisis for a country that relies on oil for up to 95% of federal budget revenue. But now Iraq can breathe a sigh of relief after a key border crossing opened after remaining shut for more than a decade. The Rabia-Yarubiyah border crossing between Iraq and Syria has been reopened after remaining closed for 13 years, offering Iraq a potential alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. The border was initially closed in 2011 due to the Syrian civil war and was later seized by the Islamic State (ISIS) in 2014 before being retaken by Iraqi Kurdish forces.
  
  The crossing provides a critical overland route for trade and oil exports, and a safer alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively blocked to most commercial traffic despite temporary announcements of reopening. The crossing is now open for passengers, transit and commercial trade, including the transportation of fuel oil by truck to Mediterranean ports. This restoration completes the reopening of all three major official border crossings between Iraq and Syria, joining Al-Qaim-Al-Bukamal and Al-Walid-Al-Tanf. The revitalisation of these routes is a central part of efforts to boost regional trade and energy transit. Rabia-Yarubiyah is not only designated as a key corridor for Iraqi oil transit toward the Mediterranean but also a transit route for Turkish goods; the Al-Walid-Al-Tanf, which reopened in March, has already begun facilitating the entry of crude oil tankers from Iraq to Syria's Banyas refinery while the Al-Qaim-Al-Bukamal route, reopened in June 2025, offers passage for both passenger and truck traffic.
  
  Meanwhile, the back and forth between the U.S. and Iran at the Strait of Hormuz shows no signs of coming to an end. On Friday, Iran announced the strait was "completely open" following a ceasefire in Lebanon. However, it reversed its decision a day later with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) regaining control and demanding that the U.S. lift its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran has stated that to permit passage, they will have to oversee traffic through designated routes, effectively forcing ships to follow Iranian-controlled paths. Oil prices have been on a rollercoaster on the constant shifting of positions between Washington and Tehran, reversing their recent downtrend with Brent crude now approaching $100 per barrel.
  
  That said, using the Rabia-Yarubiyah border crossing for Iraqi oil transport poses significant challenges for the country. Overland trucking of Iraqi oil through Syria is a costly, less-efficient emergency solution and crisis management tool, rather than a strategic alternative to pipelines or maritime transport. Energy officials have warned that current oil transport operations involving roughly up to 700 tankers daily, often holding 30 tons each, already exceed optimal capacities, causing backlogs at border points. Land-based trucking is inherently inferior to pipelines and marine transport, facing higher costs and logistical inefficiencies that could prevent a consistent 600-700 truck daily flow, even with both Rabia and al-Waleed operating. Traffic at similar neighboring crossings is frequently delayed by lengthy permit procedures and limited storage capacity on the receiving side, which may impact the Rabia route as well.
  
  Additionally, insecurity issues could also rear their ugly head, with the area in Nineveh province in Iraq as well as the Hasakah countryside in Syria having a history of conflict, having been controlled by ISIS and subsequently Kurdish forces before being returned to Syrian authorities. The region has experienced drone attacks and shelling, making the route insecure and challenging the sustainability of operations.
  
  Ultimately, a complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz might be the only real solution for the likes of Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar–the hardest hit by its closure. Unfortunately, the situation in Iran remains highly tenuous, with U.S. President Donald Trump recently stating that he is highly unlikely to extend the ceasefire beyond the Wednesday deadline and could resume his assault on Tehran. A second round of negotiations is scheduled in Islamabad for Wednesday, with the U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance, though Iran has yet to formally confirm its participation, citing contradictory messaging from Washington. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-22
  Iran War Has Cost The World $50 Billion of Lost Oil Supply, So Far
  Seven weeks after the war in the Middle East began, the world has already lost 500 million barrels of oil supply, equal to around $50 billion at an average price of $100 per barrel, around which futures prices have been hovering since February 28. The... Read more Seven weeks after the war in the Middle East began, the world has already lost 500 million barrels of oil supply, equal to around $50 billion at an average price of $100 per barrel, around which futures prices have been hovering since February 28.
  
  The losses are enormous and continue to pile up as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 million barrels per day of oil supply moved before the war, remains severely restricted, and tensions in the region escalated again.
  
  Even if traffic were restored today at full capacity, oil and LNG supply will take months, and in some cases, years, to recover as all Middle Eastern producers have been forced to curtail upstream production and refinery operations due to hits on energy infrastructure and inability to move oil and LNG cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is the only route to international markets for some of these producers.
  
  500 Million Barrels of Oil Off the Market
  
  Six weeks after the war began, cumulative crude and condensate supply losses in the Middle East had reached 430 million barrels as of April 10, data by Kpler showed.
  
  The analytics firm estimated that Middle Eastern crude supply plunged by an average of 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in March compared to February levels, with a significant portion of the drop driven by Saudi Arabia.
  
  At the end of the seventh week, the cumulative supply loss from the Middle East reached 500 million barrels, per Kpler data. This means a total revenue loss of about $50 billion with oil prices averaging around $100 per barrel since the war began, Johannes Rauball, a senior crude analyst at Kpler, told Reuters.
  
  To put the huge supply loss into perspective, 500 million barrels are equal to almost a full month of oil consumption in the U.S., or more than a month of oil demand in all of Europe, per Reuters estimates.
  
  With so much supply out of the market, inventory draws are accelerating. Kpler said last week that crude markets are tightening with onshore inventories falling by 41 million barrels by mid-April, signaling a drawdown rate of 2.7 million bpd.
  
  “The shift follows the exhaustion of earlier supply buffers and peaks in regional shut-ins,” Kpler’s analysts noted.
  
  “Continued constraints on flows via the Strait of Hormuz suggest further inventory pressure ahead, reinforcing a tightening physical balance.”
  
  Global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 million bpd to 97 million bpd in March, in the largest disruption in history, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report published last week.
  
  Global observed oil inventories fell by 85 million barrels in March, with stocks outside of the Middle East drawn down by a significant 205 million barrels (or by 6.6 million bpd) as flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained choked off, the IEA has estimated.
  
  “Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing the pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy,” said the agency.
  
  Days after this report was published, the Strait of Hormuz was briefly open for a few hours, but then tensions escalated again, and the world’s most critical oil chokepoint was closed off again. The narrow window of open Strait did not change market balances as few tankers managed to pass Hormuz.
  
  The Strait remained mostly closed as of April 21.
  
  Slow and Lengthy Recovery
  
  Even if it were to open to free, safe, and unconditional traffic for all vessels as early as today, global oil supply will need months – and possibly years in some cases – to recover to pre-war levels, analysts warn.
  
  This implies that disruptions and oil price volatility will continue for months to come, even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to unrestricted traffic today.
  
  Earlier this month, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said that an estimated 11 million bpd of upstream production shut-in across the Middle East can only be restored when export logistics normalize with an open Strait of Hormuz.
  
  Even unconstrained, it will take countries like Iraq a long time to reach prior production levels—as long as between 6 and 9 months—given the complexities involved, due to both reservoir management and resource constraints, said Fraser McKay, Head of Upstream Analysis at WoodMac.
  
  A recovery of LNG supply would take even longer, considering that Qatar has signaled that the damage from Iranian missile strikes to the Ras Laffan LNG complex, the world’s single largest LNG-producing facility, would cost it about $20 billion per year in lost revenue and take up to five years to repair.
  
  The Middle Eastern producers may need up to two years to restore their oil and gas output to the levels from before the war, the IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol said last week.
  
  “This gap is now becoming apparent,” Birol told Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung in an interview published on Friday, referring to the fact that there weren’t any loadings and shipments of oil and gas to Asia in March.
  
  “If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, we must prepare for significantly higher energy prices,” Birol said.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-22
  MABUX: Global bunker market to enter a phase of irregular movements on Apr. 22.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued its downward trend on Apr. 21, marking the seventh consecutive session of declines: 380 HSFO: USD/MT: 728.39 (-6.50) VLSFO: USD/MT... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued its downward trend on Apr. 21, marking the seventh consecutive session of declines:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 728.39 (-6.50)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 848.90 (-16.21)
  MGO: USD/MT 1 385.83 (-13.35)
  
  As of Apr. 21, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which reflects the spread between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP), showed the following developments across key global hubs (Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: All four ports remained in the undercharged zone, with discounts widening further by $40 in Rotterdam, $47 in Singapore, $60 in Fujairah, and $34 in Houston.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Houston remained the only overcharged port, although its premium narrowed by $50. The other ports continued in the undercharged zone, with discounts increasing by $41 in Rotterdam, $57 in Singapore, and $61 in Fujairah. MDI values in Singapore and Fujairah again exceeded the $100 threshold.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Rotterdam and Houston were undercharged, with discounts expanding by $62 and $27, respectively. In contrast, Singapore and Fujairah were overcharged, with premiums declining by $75 and $159. Singapore’s MDI approached full (100%) correlation between MBP and DBP.
  
  Overall, bunker prices were trending lower, but the market remains sensitive to new disruptions. Regional supply-demand balances have improved, particularly in Singapore. However, persistent geopolitical uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz continues to pose upside risks, with the potential for rapid price repricing if negotiations stall or shipping conditions deteriorate. We expect the global bunker market to shift into a phase of irregular changes on Apr. 22: 380 HSFO: plus-minus 5-15 USD/MT, VLSFO: plus-minus 5–20 USD/MT, MGO LS: plus-minus 10–25 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-04-22
  Venezuela's Orinoco Belt is an Environmental Nightmare
  U.S. intervention in Venezuela, with illegitimate President Nicolas Maduro snatched in a daring January 2026 night raid, opened the country's oil industry to foreign investment. While President Donald Trump is aggressively pushing for Big Oil to invest... Read more U.S. intervention in Venezuela, with illegitimate President Nicolas Maduro snatched in a daring January 2026 night raid, opened the country's oil industry to foreign investment. While President Donald Trump is aggressively pushing for Big Oil to invest in Venezuela, energy majors are taking a more sober approach. Venezuela's heavily corroded oil infrastructure, responsible for a nationwide environmental catastrophe, will require tens of billions of dollars to remediate before production will rise significantly. This, along with an ecological crisis precipitated by chronic spills and leaks, is heavily impacting investor sentiment.
  
  While Lake Maracaibo, South America's largest water body, is enduring the worst of the environmental devastation unleashed by Venezuela's oil industry, the Orinoco Belt is facing a similar catastrophe. The oil-rich area spans a vast 21,000 square mile (34,000 square kilometer) arc that stretches across central and eastern Venezuela.
  
  The Orinoco Belt has an estimated 1.3 trillion barrels of oil in place, which is predominantly situated in the Miocene Oficina Formation. The USGS estimates there are between 380 and 652 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil in the petroleum-rich region, making the Orinoco Belt the world's largest heavy oil resource. Indeed, the hydrocarbon-rich area for decades was responsible for 50 to 70% of Venezuela's oil production.
  
  As a result, the Orinoco Belt will be the key driver of Venezuela's petroleum-led recovery. In fact, production in the region has grown at an impressive rate since Washington's early January 2026 intervention. Sources from Venezuela's national oil company PDVSA, quoted in a Reuters article, claim February 2026 production from the Orinoco Belt reached just over 500,000 barrels per day, a 100,000-barrel increase over early January 2026. It is impressive production growth that is driving Venezuela's growing oil output.
  
  By March 2026, two months after the White House took control of Venezuela's interim government, OPEC data shows production had climbed to 988,000 barrels per day. This is a notable 8.7% increase over February 2026 and is an impressive 8.5% higher compared to the same period a year earlier. Caracas' recent regulatory reforms, which make it easier and more secure for foreign oil companies to invest in Venezuela, will drive higher production. Chevron, which holds interests in the Petroindependencia and Petropiar facilities in the Orinoco Belt, recently announced it signed agreements to expand heavy oil operations in the region.
  
  Importantly, U.S. oil imports from Venezuela are expanding with shipments accelerating after Maduro was ousted. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows January 2026 shipments surged by a whopping 45% month over month to nearly 6.2 million barrels. Unsurprisingly, that number is five times greater than the 1.2 million barrels imported for January 2023, when shipments recommenced after earlier strict sanctions were eased by then U.S. President Joe Biden. There is every expectation that Venezuela's oil shipments to the U.S. will grow as production expands.
  
  You see, the heavy sour crude oil produced in the Orinoco Belt was once highly sort after by U.S. Gulf Coast refineries. Low-cost, efficient shipping, because of Venezuela's proximity to the Gulf Coast, and the deep discounts applied to the highly viscous sour crude produced, created a financial incentive for refiners to process that type of petroleum. Consequently, by the early 1980s, operators were refitting refineries with the technology needed to process Venezuela's heavy oil to maximize profits. Washington's easing of sanctions, along with growing willingness, will significantly boost imports of Venezuela's heavy sour crude to Gulf Coast refineries.
  
  The mineral-rich Orinoco Belt is situated in one of the world's most environmentally sensitive regions. The 31,000 square mile (50,000 square kilometer) territory lies along the eastern edge of the Orinoco River Basin, a globally important ecologically biodiverse area. The vast river basin is South America's third-largest catchment region, covering most of Venezuela along with large parts of neighboring Colombia and northern Brazil. The Orinoco River, which drains roughly 70% of Venezuela, is becoming a giant repository of toxic chemicals, fertilizer run-off, and spilled petroleum.
  
  Decades of oil industry operations with little to no regulatory oversight saw oil spills, leaks, and other industry-related emissions become commonplace in the Orinoco Belt. These are impacting the surrounding terrain, including the 1,329-mile (2,140 kilometer) Orinoco River, which is South America's third-longest waterway. The Orinoco River flows into the South Caribbean Sea southeast of Trinidad and Tobago through the 275-mile (443-kilometer) Orinoco Delta, which is one of the world's most biodiverse wetlands.
  
  Frequent oil spills and industry discharge are contaminating the Orinoco River, its tributaries, nearby wetlands, and the environmentally crucial 26,700 square mile (46,000 square kilometer) delta. Chronic oil spills and leaks from the Orinoco Belt not only threaten the more than 1,000 fish species, crocodiles, dolphins, and giant otters living in the waterway but also contaminate potable water supplies for local communities as well as the jungle and nearby crops.
  
  A 2022 oil leak left a lengthy stain along the Orinoco River's shore and waters around the vast wetland, impacting communities in the vicinity. The spill was traced back to a well in the shallow water offshore Perdenales oilfield, which is part of national oil company PDVSA's 60% controlled Petrowarao joint venture with Anglo-French independent driller Perenco holding 40%. The field is largely idle because PDVSA lacks the capital to operate and maintain the facility. The risk of further spills and leaks is growing exponentially because of a lack of critical maintenance and the presence of petroleum in the idle wells.
  
  While that incident did not occur in the Orinoco Belt, it demonstrates that oil spills from aging, poorly maintained infrastructure are a chronic hazard in Venezuela, which poses a threat to the Orinoco River and its vast, highly biodiverse wetland. Decades of mismanagement by state-controlled PDVSA, along with a lack of critical maintenance and workovers, have left petroleum industry infrastructure in the Orinoco Belt in a parlous state. As a result, heavily corroded wellheads, pipelines, and storage facilities are chronically leaking petroleum into the environment.
  
  Sources estimate there are over 12,000 wells in the Orinoco Belt, of which less than 2,000 are currently active. Serious Concerns are growing over the hazards presented by idle wells, with oil trapped within these facilities. The risk of serious leaks or spills is exacerbated by the heavily corroded condition of the wells, which is deteriorating further because of the harsh environment of the Orinoco Belt. This is a widespread problem across Venezuela with derricks, pipelines, pumping stations, storage facilities, and refineries in a ramshackle state.
  
  The extremely high sulfur content of the extra-heavy crude lifted in the Orinoco Belt makes it highly corrosive, which sees it accelerate the deterioration of extraction and transportation infrastructure. When this is combined with decades of poor maintenance, the risk of spills and leaks increases exponentially. As part of a broader cover-up of the oil industry's deep environmental cost, state-controlled PDVSA ceased reporting oil spills and other crucial operational data during 2016. Thus, making it impossible to track the volume and severity of oil spills in the Orinoco Belt.
  
  As a result, there are fears that the environmental degradation and ecological damage in the petroleum-rich region is more severe than presumed. This, along with the increasingly huge ecological debt created by Venezuela's oil industry, is deterring foreign hydrocarbon investment. You see, drillers, especially Big Oil, are reticent to inherit the tremendous financial and other risks created by Venezuela's huge environmental catastrophe, particularly with most committed to making operations environmentally sound. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-22
  How $100 Oil Could Unleash a South American Supply Surge
  A sustained $100-per-barrel oil price could unlock up to 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of additional crude supply across South America by the mid-2030s, according to new analysis by Rystad Energy. The finding comes as the effective closure of the... Read more A sustained $100-per-barrel oil price could unlock up to 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of additional crude supply across South America by the mid-2030s, according to new analysis by Rystad Energy. The finding comes as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced a sharp upward revision in our forecasted average 2026 oil price, from $60 Brent per barrel in January to $89 per barrel today. At current production levels, government revenues across South America are expected to rise by approximately $43 billion this year alone relative to our base case, reinforcing hydrocarbons’ central role in public finance from Brasilia to Caracas. Across the region, Petrobras stands to gain the most: revenues are set to rise by $13.1 billion under the current $89 per barrel forecast versus January’s $60 per barrel baseline.
  
  The Middle East conflict has done more than spike oil prices — it has exposed how dangerously concentrated global supply chains are around the Strait of Hormuz. South America is now positioned as the world’s most consequential source of incremental supply. The region offers scale, geologic quality and relative political stability at exactly the moment that the world is shopping for alternatives
  
  Offshore developments in Brazil, Guyana and Suriname represent the most immediate source of upside. Fast-tracking projects across these markets could deliver more than 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) of additional production over the next decade, backed by approximately $33 billion in incremental greenfield capex through 2035. In Guyana, ExxonMobil is targeting up to 300,000 bpd from its Yellowtail project, which came online at an initial average production of 250,000 bpd, and Rystad believes identical debottlenecking could unlock and additional 80,000 to 90,000 bpd across the Errea Wittu, Jaguar and Hammerhead fields. However, the largest upside is in earlier final investment decisions (FIDs) of new projects, not expanding existing assets. Nevertheless, limited shipyard capacity for new floating production, storage and offloading vessels (FPSOs) remains the binding constraint.
  
  Outside those three hubs, Venezuela has re-entered the global supply conversation following the January capture of President Nicolás Maduro and declining availability of medium-to-heavy sour crude from the Middle East. Under a $100-per-barrel scenario, Rystad Energy estimates Venezuela could add 910,000 bpd by 2035, with 57% coming from existing fields in the East and West provinces, where medium crude operating costs run at just $7 to $8 per barrel. ExxonMobil, whose CEO called Venezuela “uninvestable” in January, has since deployed technical teams to assess opportunities. Shell signed preliminary agreements with Venezuelan state player PDVSA in early March covering offshore gas and onshore exploration. All timelines remain contingent on sanctions relief and fiscal reform. The upside could be significantly higher if more players follow suit as investor confidence improves, driven by the presence of companies such as Chevron, Eni, Repsol and Shell. Increased participation in underdeveloped fields, particularly through partnerships with PDVSA, would further unlock additional production potential.
  
  Argentina’s Vaca Muerta is the region’s most dynamic growth story. Crude production is forecast to reach 1 million bpd by end-decade, up from current production which is around 600,000 bpd and 1.5 million bpd by 2035 under the standard price strip. In a high case scenario, production could hit 1.8 million bpd, at which point the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur (VMOS) pipeline becomes the binding constraint. China is set to emerge as the primary export destination, with consistent crude shipments beginning in 2027.
  
  The pace of growth across South America will depend less on resource availability or economics and more on execution capacity, supply-chain constraints and the broader investment environment. Countries that provide clear fiscal and regulatory frameworks are better positioned to accelerate project sanctions and capture the upside from higher prices. Those that hesitate or are slow to move will simply watch the capital flow elsewhere. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-22
  US Crude Oil, Oil Product Inventories Come Crashing Down
  The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 4.4 million barrels in the week ending April 17. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories rose by 6.10 million barrels. Analysts had expected a... Read more The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 4.4 million barrels in the week ending April 17. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories rose by 6.10 million barrels. Analysts had expected a 1 million barrel draw.
  
  Inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) continue to draw down to alleviate the pressure on prices. For week ending April 17, 4.2 million barrels left the SPR, bringing the new total to 405 million barrels. This is 320.5 million barrels shy of maximum capacity.
  
  US production stayed at 13.596 million bpd for the week ending April 10, according to the latest EIA data. This is 134,000 bpd more than this same time last year.
  
  At 4:47 pm ET, moments after data release, Brent crude was trading up on the day at $99.06 (+3.75%). This is up roughly $4 per barrel week over week on continued uneasiness over the failure of the US’s ability to reach a deal with Iran. WTI was also trading up on the day, by $2.74 per barrel (+3.13%) at $90.16 down roughly $1.80 per barrel week over week.
  
  Gasoline inventories fell this week by 5.165 million barrels in the week ending April 17. In the week prior, gasoline inventories rose by 626,000 barrels. As of last week, gasoline inventories were 1% above the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data.
  
  Distillate inventories fell by 4.59 million barrels, after shedding 3.4 million barrels in the week prior. Distillate inventories were already 6% below the five-year average as of the week ending April 10, the latest EIA data shows.
  
  Cushing inventory—the inventory kept at the delivery hub for the WTI Crude futures contract—rose by 678,000 barrels, after falling by 1.7 million barrels in the week prior.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-22
  China Oil Buying Set to Return After Stockpile Drawdown
  China is likely to return to buying large volumes of oil within weeks after selling down inventories during the peak of the Iran supply disruption, according to Mercuria. Marco Dunand, chief executive of the trading house, said at the FT Commodities... Read more China is likely to return to buying large volumes of oil within weeks after selling down inventories during the peak of the Iran supply disruption, according to Mercuria.
  
  Marco Dunand, chief executive of the trading house, said at the FT Commodities Summit that China has been drawing from commercial stocks accumulated ahead of the crisis, effectively stepping back from the market as prices surged and Middle East flows tightened.
  
  That sell-off is a critical and possibly underappreciated part of the recent balance. China entered 2026 with a sizable buffer after stockpiling heavily through 2025, when it was estimated to have added roughly 1 million barrels per day to storage while prices hovered near $60.
  
  Import data shows that those barrels are now being used.
  
  China’s crude imports fell 2.3% year-on-year in March to 49.98 million tons, even as first-quarter volumes remained up 8.9% on earlier stockpiling. LNG imports also dropped sharply, down 22% in March, as buyers pulled back at higher prices.
  
  China has not been a consistent buyer during the disruption. It has been a source of supply, offsetting part of the loss from the Middle East by releasing stored crude into the system.
  
  But that is nearing an end. Once inventories are drawn down to operational levels, China will need to return to the market to maintain refinery runs. Dunand put that timeline at roughly three weeks.
  
  When that happens, the balance shifts again. China is the world’s largest crude importer, and its return as a large-scale buyer would add demand back into a market already dealing with constrained supply and elevated prices.
  
  There is no visibility into China’s actual stock levels, but the direction is clear. The buffer built in 2025 is being used in 2026. Once it is no longer sufficient, imports will rise.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-22
  Norway Pumps Near Capacity as Spare Output Buffer Disappears
  Norway kept petroleum production near peak levels in March 2026—but the more important signal for oil markets is that the country is now operating with virtually no spare capacity. At a time when global supply remains highly sensitive to geopolitical... Read more Norway kept petroleum production near peak levels in March 2026—but the more important signal for oil markets is that the country is now operating with virtually no spare capacity.
  
  At a time when global supply remains highly sensitive to geopolitical disruptions, one of the world’s most reliable non-OPEC producers has little left to give.
  
  According to preliminary figures from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate, total liquids production averaged around 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, including crude oil, NGLs, and condensate. Output remains close to levels seen earlier this year and well above year-earlier volumes.
  
  Running at Full Throttle
  
  Crude oil production continued to outperform expectations, supported by strong output from core fields on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, particularly Johan Sverdrup.
  
  But the key constraint is no longer the reservoir—it is the system. Liquids production across the shelf is increasingly capped by infrastructure utilization, export capacity, and maintenance scheduling rather than resource availability. In practical terms, Norway is already producing at, or very close to, its operational ceiling. Officials have repeatedly emphasized that there is limited scope to increase output further in the short term, even if market conditions tighten.
  
  Oil Holds Strong, Gas Follows the Season
  
  Oil output remained robust through March, aided by fewer disruptions following the winter maintenance period.
  
  Natural gas production, meanwhile, followed a more typical seasonal pattern. Volumes declined from peak winter levels but remained broadly in line with expectations heading into the summer maintenance cycle. At the same time, Norwegian gas continues to play a critical role in European energy supply, with output expected to rise again later in 2026 as storage refilling accelerates and demand stabilizes.
  
  A Late-Cycle Production Peak
  
  Norway’s current production profile reflects one of the strongest periods for the shelf in over a decade.
  
  In 2025, total petroleum output reached 239.2 million standard cubic meters of oil equivalent, the highest annual level since 2009 and just about 10 percent below the all-time peak in 2004. This strength is the result of major developments over the past decade, combined with high-efficiency assets such as Johan Sverdrup and continuous optimization of mature fields. At the same time, it underscores a more structural reality: this increasingly looks like a late-cycle peak rather than the beginning of a new growth phase.
  
  Related: Norway Risks Leaving Billions of Barrels Behind as Time Runs Out
  
  No Buffer Left for Global Markets
  
  The critical takeaway is not that Norway is producing more—it is that it cannot produce much more.
  
  During the 2022–2023 energy crisis, Norway managed to boost deliveries to Europe by adjusting maintenance schedules and maximizing output. That flexibility has now largely been exhausted, and the system is effectively fully utilized.
  
  For oil markets, this matters. With Norway running at full capacity, additional supply disruptions cannot be offset by higher North Sea output. Instead, any imbalance must be absorbed through inventories or higher prices, with spare capacity increasingly concentrated within OPEC+. In practical terms, Norway can stabilize supply—but it can no longer respond when the market tightens.
  
  What Comes Next
  
  Looking ahead, maintaining current production levels will depend on continued investment, new field developments, and improved recovery from existing assets.
  
  Without that, output is expected to trend lower over the coming decade as mature fields decline.
  
  Market Implication: Tight Means Tighter
  
  For a global oil market already navigating geopolitical risk, constrained inventories, and disciplined OPEC+ supply, Norway’s position is clear.
  
  One of the world’s most reliable sources of non-OPEC supply is maxed out—and when the next disruption hits, there are fewer barrels left to cushion the blow.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-22
  Long-Haul Flight Fares Soar as Iran War Hits European Aviation Hard
  The Middle East crisis and the subsequent jet fuel crunch have sent airline ticket prices soaring, with an estimated $105 (90 euros) increase per long-haul flight from Europe since the outbreak of the war, climate campaign group Transport & Environment... Read more The Middle East crisis and the subsequent jet fuel crunch have sent airline ticket prices soaring, with an estimated $105 (90 euros) increase per long-haul flight from Europe since the outbreak of the war, climate campaign group Transport & Environment (T&E) said on Tuesday.
  
  Airline ticket prices have jumped for short European routes, too, but the long-haul routes, of course, have seen the biggest increases as Europe grapples with slashed jet fuel supply.
  
  “The escalating crisis in the Middle East has sent profound shockwaves through the energy sector, but is particularly acute for aviation,” T&E said in its analysis today.
  
  “To the surprise of many is the extent to which the aviation industry is easily shaken by political conflicts around the world because of its over-reliance on oil and jet kerosene produced and/or transited via the Middle East.”
  
  According to the campaign group, “The recent Middle East crisis underscores that European aviation’s greatest vulnerability is its fossil fuel dependency, not the climate regulations.”
  
  Europe could be weeks away from actual jet fuel/kerosene shortages, analysts and officials warned last week.
  
  Accelerated refinery closures in the past decade and increased dependence on kerosene from the Middle East have exposed Europe’s energy supply vulnerability once again.
  
  The war in Iran has cut most of Europe’s imports of jet fuel, while local output has been falling for nearly two decades due to dozens of refineries closing permanently or being converted to biofuel production.
  
  Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), last week warned that Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of remaining jet fuel supply.
  
  Northwest Europe is one of the regions most exposed to the jet fuel crisis, as imports have dropped from historical norms this month, and the import decline is set to accelerate in the coming weeks as more U.S. jet fuel cargoes would go to Asia instead of Europe, Ernest Censier, market analyst at Vortexa, said in an analysis last week. Source: Oilprice.com

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