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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
547.94
-83.81
652.00
+7.00
May 31
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	547.94	-83.81	652.00	+7.00	May 31

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
471.32	+4.12	589.54	+4.00	770.51	+4.89	Jun 2

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MBP INDEX vs DBP INDEX (ICE/NYMEX)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	Date
Rotterdam	432	465	-33	521	558	-37	652	742	-90	Jun 2
Singapore	430	476	-46	558	551	+7	679	751	-72	Jun 2
Fujairah	418	502	-84	538	555	-17	817	799	+18	Jun 2
Houston	402	438	-36	512	546	-34	685	724	-39	Jun 2

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Latest News
- 2023-06-02
  Oil prices rise as Congress approves US debt ceiling bill
  Oil prices rose on Friday amid bullish sentiment following the passage of a U.S. debt ceiling bill in Washington, while markets weighed the likelihood of price-supportive OPEC+ production cuts over the weekend. Brent crude futures rose 34 cents, or 0.46%... Read more Oil prices rose on Friday amid bullish sentiment following the passage of a U.S. debt ceiling bill in Washington, while markets weighed the likelihood of price-supportive OPEC+ production cuts over the weekend.
  Brent crude futures rose 34 cents, or 0.46% to $74.62 a barrel by 0302 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) rose 30 cents, or 0.43%, to $70.40, following two consecutive days of losses.
  Markets were reassured by Congress' passage of a bill suspending the U.S. government's $31.4 billion debt ceiling, as well as by earlier signals of a potential pause in rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
  The bill was approved by the Senate on Thursday night U.S. time, staving off a calamitous sovereign default that would have rocked global financial markets.
  Market sentiment was also buoyed by Thursday's U.S. crude stock data from the Energy Information Administration, which indicated that crude imports had jumped last week.
  Investor attention is now fixed on the June 4 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, collectively called OPEC+.
  Ministers from key oil producing countries will decide whether to further trim output to support government revenues.
  Further reductions in OPEC+ output following their surprise cut of 1.16 million barrels per day in April would be bullish for crude prices.
  Signals on any such cut have been varied, with Reuters reporting and analysts from banks including HSBC and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) indicating that further outputs cuts are unlikely and that the bloc would adopt a "wait and see" approach.
  Other market observers have pointed to weak manufacturing data out of China and the U.S. as making OPEC+ cuts more likely.
  "Oil prices are stabilizing after a round of disappointing global manufacturing data supported the case for OPEC+ to deliver another production cut," said Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at OANDA.
  In the U.S., Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Thursday that its manufacturing PMI fell to 46.9 last month from 47.1 in April, the seventh-straight month that the PMI stayed below the 50 threshold, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity in the world's largest oil consumer.
  Manufacturing data out of China painted a mixed picture, with Thursday's better-than-expected Caixin/S&P Global China manufacturing PMI contrasting with the previous day's official government data that reported factory activity in May had contracted to the lowest level in five months.
  However, traders are "thinking that Russia might not necessarily stick to a hard stance on output cuts, especially since they are struggling to commit to their quotes,"Moya added. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2023-06-02
  U.S. Crude Joins Biggest Oil Benchmark
  Starting today, U.S. oil will be part of the Brent crude basket that underlies the world's most traded benchmark contract. It will be the first non-European grade included in the basket, highlighting the change that the U.S. shale revolution brought... Read more Starting today, U.S. oil will be part of the Brent crude basket that underlies the world's most traded benchmark contract.
  
  It will be the first non-European grade included in the basket, highlighting the change that the U.S. shale revolution brought about for the global oil market.
  
  "Since the restart of U.S. crude exports in 2015, WTI Midland has become a baseload grade for European refiners and a core part of the North Sea oil market," Vera Blei, who is in charge of oil market price reporting at S&P Global Platts, said in 2020.
  
  At the time, she added that the inclusion of WTI to the Brent basket "would provide additional volume and ensure the continued robustness of Dated Brent for the next decade and beyond."
  
  Bloomberg reported on the ratings agency's plans to include U.S. crude in the Brent benchmark three years ago, but these plans understandably lost the spotlight to Covid. But now that the pandemic is not the number-one news everywhere, S&P Global Platts' plans re-entered the news space and, beginning today, the change is a fact.
  
  Brent used to be made up of five oil grades, produced at five North Sea fields: Brent, Ekofisk, Troll, Forties, and Oseberg. But the combined production of these five fields has fallen to less than 700,000 bpd from some 850,000 bpd in late 2020.
  
  Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil sold abroad has soared by more than 700% in less than ten years. From about half a million barrels daily right after the export ban was lifted at the end of 2015, to date, U.S. crude oil exports have expanded to over 4 million barrels daily.
  Related: WTI Screams Back Up Past $70 Despite Crude Inventory Builds
  
  U.S. crude arriving in Europe specifically has topped 1 million barrels daily, reaching 1.25 million bpd in March. This is unlikely to change anytime soon as the EU, to its own displeasure perhaps, still uses quite a lot of oil and has to get it from somewhere that is not Russia. What better source than the U.S.?
  
  "WTI Midland is the best candidate for this because it already has a fairly similar refining slate to most of the North Sea grades," said S&P Global's director for crude and fuel oil markets in April, speaking to Reuters.
  
  It is also the best candidate because its production has been growing strongly in the past decade, unlike the production of Brent, Ekofisk, Troll, Forties, and Oseberg. By including WTI Midland in the Brent basket, S&P Global will make that basket more accurately representative of the physical oil trade situation.
  
  The more interesting part, however, is how the addition of WTI Midland would affect prices. Some analysts argue that, because it is cheaper, the addition of the U.S. crude will bring overall Brent prices down with it. Others note that the addition would increase the influence of U.S. events on global oil prices.
  
  "Bottom line for Brent is that it will be much more influenced by U.S. fundamentals such as Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases and Permian production," Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at IBC Private Wealth US, told Reuters in April.
  
  "Once you become a benchmark, you have influence over all the other grades of crude," Surrey Clean Energy director Adi Imsirovic told the Wall Street Journal this week.
  
  This influence will continue, not only because there is now a U.S. crude grade added to the Brent benchmark. It is because U.S. oil production, even at a slower growth rate, will continue to be much stronger than European production. [if !supportLineBreakNewLine][endif]
  
  After all, Britain's potential future Prime Minister just vowed to ban new oil and gas licensing for the North Sea if his Labour Party wins the next elections. Perhaps in the future, Brent crude will become even more international. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2023-06-02
  MABUX: Global bunker prices to rebound on June 02.
  MABUX World Bunker Index (as index calculated on current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO) continued trending down on Jun. 01: 380 HSFO - USD/MT - 467.20 (-7.28) VLSFO - USD/MT – 585.54 (-2.44) MGO - USD/MT – 765.62 (-8.37) As of Jun. 01, the... Read more MABUX World Bunker Index (as index calculated on current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO) continued trending down on Jun. 01:
  
  380 HSFO - USD/MT - 467.20 (-7.28)
  VLSFO - USD/MT – 585.54 (-2.44)
  MGO - USD/MT – 765.62 (-8.37)
  
  As of Jun. 01, the MABUX MBP/DBP Index (MDI) (the correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX digital bunker price benchmark (DBP), recorded the following changes:
  
  - HSFO segment: the underprice premium declined in all selected ports, ranging from $3 to $13, except for Singapore, where the MDI remained unchanged.
  
  - VLSFO segment: the undercharge ratio did not show any significant changes, with a slight increase in Fujairah but a decrease in Rotterdam. Houston remained unchanged. Singapore continued to be the only overpriced port, with the overcharge premium slightly increasing by $3.
  
  - MGO LS segment: the undervalue margins narrowed Rotterdam by $6 and in Singapore by $9 but widened in Houston by $15. The overprice premium increased in Fujairah by $11.
  
  We expect Global bunker indices to change in an uptrend on Jun. 02: 380 HSFO –plus 5-10 USD/MT, VLSFO – plus 5-12 USD/MT, MGO LS –plus 7-15 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2023-06-02
  Oil Jumps As EIA Reports Surprise Crude Build
  Crude oil prices moved higher moments before the Energy Information Administration reported an inventory build of 4.5 million barrels for the week to May 26. At 459.7 million barrels, crude oil inventories in the U.S. are around 2% below the five-year... Read more Crude oil prices moved higher moments before the Energy Information Administration reported an inventory build of 4.5 million barrels for the week to May 26.
  
  At 459.7 million barrels, crude oil inventories in the U.S. are around 2% below the five-year average for this time of the year.
  
  Last week’s change compares with a substantial draw of 12.5 million barrels for the previous week, which caused prices to jump but only for a short while.
  
  This week, the American Petroleum Institute surprised markets with a large inventory build estimate that pressured prices on Wednesday but Thursday presented a chance for a reversal as the House of Representatives voted for the debt ceiling suspension deal agreed by President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
  
  Meanwhile, the EIA reported a 200,000-barrel inventory draw in gasoline, with production averaging 10 million barrels daily in the week to May 26.
  
  This compared with a draw of 2.1 million barrels for the previous week, when production averaged 10.3 million barrels daily.
  
  In middle distillates, the authority estimated an inventory build of 1 million barrels for the week to May 26, and a production rate of 5 million bpd.
  
  This compared with an inventory draw of 600,000 barrels for the previous week, when production averaged 4.9 million bpd.
  
  At the time of writing, Brent crude traded at $73.11 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $68.86 per barrel, both up since opening on the day when Midland crude joins the Brent basket.
  
  This is the first time a non-European crude oil grade will be part of the global benchmark.
  
  Meanwhile, a poll Reuters ran among economists has suggested that prices will not be able to top $100 this year, remaining below $90 per barrel for the remainder of the year.
  
  According to the respondents in the poll, Brent will average $84.73 per barrel this year, while West Texas Intermediate will average $79.20 per barrel. Both figures were downward revisions on earlier forecasts. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2023-06-02
  Iraq’s Crude Oil Exports Stay Flat As Kurdistan Saga Continues
  Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest oil producer, exported on average 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in May, flat compared to April, according to the Iraqi oil ministry. Iraq’s revenues from oil stood at $7.3 billion last month, as sales were made... Read more Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest oil producer, exported on average 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in May, flat compared to April, according to the Iraqi oil ministry.
  
  Iraq’s revenues from oil stood at $7.3 billion last month, as sales were made at an average of $71.30 per barrel, the ministry said in a statement carried by Reuters.
  
  Iraq is currently exporting oil only via its southern oil export terminals, with around 450,000 bpd of exports from the northern fields and from the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan still shut in due to a dispute over who should authorize the Kurdish exports.
  
  Amid fears of a recession and concerns about slower-than-expected Chinese recovery, the oil market hasn’t particularly missed Kurdistan’s exports. Oil prices registered monthly losses in both April and May. Oil actually had the seventh consecutive month of monthly losses in May.
  
  Kurdistan’s exports—shut-in since March 25—have yet to resume. Earlier this week, reports emerged that a flare-up between the regional government in Kurdistan and the federal Iraqi government in Baghdad added risk for the resumption of oil flows from the northern Iraqi region.
  
  Rudaw reports that the spike in tension followed amendments in relation to Kurdistan that the Iraq government had made to the federal budget last week. The Kurdish government slammed the changes as unconstitutional.
  
  Kurdistan’s crude oil exports—around 400,000 bpd shipped through an Iraqi-Turkey pipeline to Ceyhan and then on tankers to the international markets—were halted on March 25 by the federal government of Iraq.
  
  The suspension of oil flows out of northern Iraq and Kurdistan via Ceyhan forced companies to either curtail or suspend production because of limited capacity at storage tanks.
  
  Iraq is now waiting for a final go-ahead from Turkey, but the recent Baghdad-Kurdistan flare-up could delay the approval of the budget and may destroy the delicate balance that Baghdad and Erbil achieved in the wake of the oil export halt from Kurdistan.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2023-06-02
  South Africa Could Ease Blackouts By Burning Heavy Fuel Oil
  South Africa’s chronic 10-hours-per-day blackouts could finally have a solution that won’t sit well with energy transitioners—burning heavy fuel oil. South Africa’s Electricity Minister, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, has announced that the country will start... Read more South Africa’s chronic 10-hours-per-day blackouts could finally have a solution that won’t sit well with energy transitioners—burning heavy fuel oil.
  
  South Africa’s Electricity Minister, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, has announced that the country will start an emergency procurement program. The program will negotiate power purchase agreements, and will last for five years. Some of the power will come from natural gas from Turkey’s Karpowership through an existing agreement. At least 1,200 MW of the 2,000 MW needed will be sourced that way.
  
  The remaining power could come from a more controversial source: heavy fuel oil from Karpowership’s other plants, an anonymous source told Bloomberg.
  
  Talks are expected to begin this week.
  
  Heavy fuel oil is bound to raise a few eyebrows, especially since several environmental organizations have worked tirelessly to shut down Karpowership’s
  
  In order to prevent blackouts, power must be kept in near-perfect balance to keep the system synchronized.
  
  At last count, Karpowership has about 30 of these powerships—or power barges—at the ready. Heading into last winter, Germany used power barges to help it stave off blackouts. Ukraine was also in talks with Karpowership to utilize ship-based emergency power last November, followed by Cuba in December. Trinidad and Tobago were also in conversations with Turkey about these floating power vessels, which have the flexibility of switching between fuels.
  
  Last week, South Africa was reportedly considering extending the operational lives of two of its largest coal-fueled power plants to boost its energy security, Bloomberg sources said at the time. The two plants, Kendal and Oethabo, are currently set to be decommissioned after 2035.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2023-06-02
  Europe’s 11th Russian Sanctions Package Could Be Coming Soon
  The next revision of Europe’s Russian sanctions could be coming as soon as next week, although the measures won’t be as strong as originally intended, people familiar with the negotiations told Reuters. The European Commission had plans to tighten... Read more The next revision of Europe’s Russian sanctions could be coming as soon as next week, although the measures won’t be as strong as originally intended, people familiar with the negotiations told Reuters.
  
  The European Commission had plans to tighten up the loopholes in the existing sanctions, and put out its proposal last month. The members of the coalition were expected to be signed off on sometime between May 19 and 21, but the proposal to beef up sanctions against Russia wasn’t without dissension, prompting additional negotiations and revisions to the proposal.
  
  The proposal to upgrade the sanctions, as originally designed, was to be tougher across several areas, including targeting third countries that are not going far enough to make sure Russia is following existing sanctions. The measures would have been a deterrent to countries who were either assisting Russia with its sanctions-busting trade, or even who were turning a blind eye to Russia’s skirting of the sanctions. The targets would have seen restrictions on exports of key goods. But the revised sanctions watered this measure down, opting to hold companies and not countries responsible, Reuters sources suggested.
  
  Other measures in the proposal included trade restrictions for Chinese firms that have allegedly shipped banned goods to Russia, banning goods from traveling through Russia, and halting Russia’s oil flows through the northern part of the Druzhba pipeline.
  
  Reuters sources said that the EU Commission is looking to have member states sign off on the revised proposal as early as next week.
  
  Europe has found itself the subject of criticism over its Russian sanctions, which some have argued have too many loopholes for Russia to wander through as it attempts to continue its oil and gas trade regardless of the actions taken against it. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2023-06-02
  Chinese Government Encourages Tesla To Expand Business In Shanghai
  Tesla's relationship with China continues to look cozy heading into the second half of 2023, with Shanghai party chief Chen Jining reportedly encouraging Elon Musk to expand his business in China. At the conclusion of a trip through China for Musk,... Read more Tesla's relationship with China continues to look cozy heading into the second half of 2023, with Shanghai party chief Chen Jining reportedly encouraging Elon Musk to expand his business in China.
  
  At the conclusion of a trip through China for Musk, on Thursday Bloomberg reported in a wrap-up that Musk was told to expand his investment and businesses in Shanghai, citing an official government statement.
  
  The city is reportedly seeking "deepening cooperation with Tesla on electric vehicles and energy storage sector". Tesla "hopes to keep deepening cooperation" with the city, Bloomberg noted.
  
  Recall, we wrote days ago how Musk was visiting China for the first time in three years. We reported yesterday that Musk told Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang in Beijing that Tesla opposes "decoupling" and is willing to invest more in China.
  
  Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, shared his thoughts on Musk's first visit to China in three years yesterday. He said the visit comes amid a worsening EV price war and stressed the importance for Tesla to capture a greater market share in China versus domestic competitors.
  
  "Playing nice in the sandbox in Beijing is something the Street is laser-focused on to make sure there are no disruptions to Tesla's expansion," Ives wrote in the note.
  
  Elon Musk's tour of the country started earlier this week, on Tuesday. As we noted then, Tesla's second-biggest market, after the US, is China, where the company operates a massive factory in Shanghai. The world's second richest person met top Chinese officials and visited Tesla's Shanghai factory.
  
  CCP's mouthpiece Global Times tweeted earlier this month, "Shanghai will further deepen cooperation with Tesla, pushing its layout on autonomous driving, robots and other business sectors in the city."
  
  Despite souring relations between China and the US, Musk appears to be betting big on Shanghai production while other companies are rejiggering supply chains out of the world's second-largest economy to other friendlier countries. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2023-06-02
  Qatar Signs Long-Term LNG Supply Deal With Bangladesh
  QatarEnergy has signed an agreement to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Bangladesh's state firm PetroBangla for 15 years beginning in 2026, Saad al-Kaabi, chief executive at the Qatari state company said on Thursday. LNG buyers are looking for... Read more QatarEnergy has signed an agreement to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Bangladesh's state firm PetroBangla for 15 years beginning in 2026, Saad al-Kaabi, chief executive at the Qatari state company said on Thursday.
  
  LNG buyers are looking for long-term supply to secure gas from Qatar's massive expansion projects to insulate themselves from volatile spot prices.
  
  Bangladesh, in particular, was one of the South Asian economies most hit by the soaring LNG spot prices and withdrew from the spot market last year, alongside other buyers such as India and Pakistan.
  
  Even some governments in Europe—including Germany's—which were reluctant to sign long-term deals before the energy crisis due to emissions concerns, are now open to such deals.
  
  "If a European is actually negotiating with me and has an issue, he will tell me 'I have an issue with duration,' I've not heard that," QatarEnergy's al-Kaabi said at a news conference, as quoted by Reuters.
  
  The deal with Bangladesh is the latest long-term agreement for LNG from Qatar's future North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) expansion projects.
  
  "The majority (of LNG exports) will be going to Asia and the other will be going to Europe and we'll be more than sold out as far as volumes of NFE and NFS," QatarEnergy's top executive said.
  
  In April, QatarEnergy said it would transfer to China's Sinopec a 5% stake in the development of the huge NFE expansion project, the largest project in the history of the LNG industry. The Qatari company picked last year TotalEnergies, Shell, and ConocoPhillips as partners to hold minority stakes in the NFE and NFS expansion projects.
  
  Qatar announced in 2021 the world's largest LNG project, which is set to raise its LNG production capacity from 77 million tons per annum (mmtpa) to 110 mmtpa. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2023-06-02
  Petrobras Looks To Grow Oil Production Outside Brazil
  Brazilian state-held oil firm Petrobras is considering growing its oil reserves and production with projects abroad after a major drilling project at home was denied due to environmental concerns, Reuters reported on Thursday, quoting sources familiar... Read more Brazilian state-held oil firm Petrobras is considering growing its oil reserves and production with projects abroad after a major drilling project at home was denied due to environmental concerns, Reuters reported on Thursday, quoting sources familiar with the company’s plans.
  
  Petrobras, which hasn’t made a large domestic discovery in more than a decade, could decide on a U-turn in its exploration policy and look to grow outside Brazil instead of focusing domestically and shrinking its foreign presence as it has done over the past decade.
  
  The reason for the possible U-turn in exploration and production strategy is the recent rejection of a drilling project in the Foz do Amazonas area in the so-called Equatorial Margin where the Amazon River meets the Atlantic.
  
  Petrobras has bet big on the Equatorial Margin to replenish its reserves.
  
  But last month, Brazil’s environmental protection agency refused to grant approval for the controversial offshore oil project led by Petrobras.
  
  The agency based its decision, which was celebrated by environmentalists, on “a function of a group of technical inconsistencies.”
  
  The block in the Foz do Amazonas basin, off Brazil’s northern coast, is close to the mouth of the Amazon River, which prompted the environmentalist protest that eventually led to the regulator’s decision.
  
  Petrobras already operates several blocks in the area, which, according to Brazil’s oil and gas regulator, has a similar geology to the Guyana-Suriname Basin, where several massive discoveries have been made.
  
  Petrobras is appealing the decision of the environmental protection agency Ibama. But the state oil giant wasn’t prepared for such a rejection, according to Reuters’ sources.
  
  Drilling in the Equatorial Margin has been Petrobras’ “Plan A, B, and C” for replenishing its oil reserves, one of the sources noted. Without the Equatorial Margin, Petrobras may have to seek growth opportunities outside Brazil, according to the sources. Source: Oilprice.com