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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
967.00
+63.00
1 325.00
-5.00
Apr 28
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	967.00	+63.00	1 325.00	-5.00	Apr 28

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
772.58	-5.34	930.04	-7.19	1 467.55	-7.41	May 4

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	675	750	-75	770	834	-64	1 325	1 439	-114	May 4
Singapore	700	781	-81	800	928	-128	1 308	1 432	-124	May 4
Fujairah	690	725	-35	880	897	-17	1 556	1 495	+61	May 4
Houston	665	752	-87	870	882	-12	1 230	1 255	-25	May 4

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Latest News
- 2026-05-04
  Oil slips after Trump says US will help free ships stranded in Strait of Hormuz
  Oil prices eased on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States would begin an effort to free up ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, however the lack of a U.S.-Iran peace deal kept prices supported above $100. Brent crude futures... Read more Oil prices eased on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States would begin an effort to free up ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, however the lack of a U.S.-Iran peace deal kept prices supported above $100.
  Brent crude futures fell 64 cents, or 0.59%, to $107.53 a barrel by 2308 GMT after settling down $2.23 on Friday.
  U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $101.10 a barrel, down 84 cents, or 0.82%, following a $3.13 loss on Friday.
  "For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business," Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social site on Sunday.
  Oil prices remained above $100 a barrel with no peace deal in sight and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz still limited. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran continued over the weekend with the countries assessing responses from each other.
  "Peace talks have been stalled as both sides refuse to move on their respective red lines," ANZ analysts said in a note.
  Trump has made a nuclear deal with Tehran a priority, while Iran has proposed to set aside nuclear issues until after the war ends and the foes agree to lift opposing blockades on Gulf shipping.
  
  On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, or OPEC+, said they will raise oil output targets by 188,000 barrels per day in June for seven members, the third consecutive monthly rise.
  The increase is the same as that agreed for May minus the share of the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC on May 1. However, the higher volume will remain largely on paper as long as the Iran war continues to disrupt Gulf oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-05-04
  OPEC+ agrees third oil output quota hike since Hormuz closure
  OPEC+ agreed on Sunday a modest oil output hike for June, an increase that will remain largely on paper as long as the Iran war continues to disrupt Gulf oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Seven OPEC+ countries will raise oil output targets by... Read more OPEC+ agreed on Sunday a modest oil output hike for June, an increase that will remain largely on paper as long as the Iran war continues to disrupt Gulf oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
  Seven OPEC+ countries will raise oil output targets by 188,000 barrels per day in June, the third consecutive monthly increase, OPEC+ said in a statement after an online meeting. The increase is the same as that agreed for May minus the share of the United Arab Emirates, which left the group on May 1.
  The move is designed to show the group is ready to raise supplies once the war stops and signals that OPEC+ is pressing on with a business-as-usual approach despite the departure of the UAE from OPEC+, OPEC+ sources and analysts said.
  “OPEC+ is sending a two-layer message to the market: continuity despite the UAE’s exit, and control despite limited physical impact," said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad and former OPEC official.
  “While output is increasing on paper, the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the Strait of Hormuz constraints. This is less about adding barrels and more about signaling that OPEC+ still calls the shots.”
  Top OPEC+ producer Saudi Arabia’s quota will rise to 10.291 million bpd in June under the agreement, far above actual production. The kingdom reported actual production of 7.76 million bpd to OPEC in March.
  
  The seven members who met on Sunday were Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. With the UAE leaving, OPEC+ includes 21 members including Iran. But in recent years only the seven nations plus the UAE have been involved in monthly production decisions.
  HIKE REMAINS LARGELY SYMBOLIC UNTIL HORMUZ RE-OPENS
  The Iran war, which began on February 28, and the resulting closure of the Hormuz strait have throttled exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, as well as from the UAE. Before the conflict, these producers were the only countries in the group able to raise production.
  Even when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it will take several weeks if not months for flows to normalise, oil executives from the Gulf and global oil traders have said.
  The supply disruption has propelled oil prices to a four-year high above $125 per barrel as analysts begin to predict widespread jet fuel shortages in one to two months and a spike in global inflation.
  Crude oil output from all OPEC+ members averaged 35.06 million bpd in March, down 7.70 million bpd from February, OPEC said in a report last month, with Iraq and Saudi Arabia making the biggest cuts due to constrained exports.
  The seven OPEC+ members will meet again on June 7, the statement said. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-05-04
  Hormuz Deadlock Persists as Trump Faces War-Powers Deadline at Home
  Two months after the Iran war began, the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted for tanker traffic while U.S. President Donald Trump faces a key legal deadline at home under the 1973 War Powers Resolution. As of early Friday, May 1, the deadlock... Read more Two months after the Iran war began, the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted for tanker traffic while U.S. President Donald Trump faces a key legal deadline at home under the 1973 War Powers Resolution.
  
  As of early Friday, May 1, the deadlock at the world’s most vital oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, doesn’t appear close to being resolved. The U.S. is doubling down on the naval blockade outside the Strait aimed at stopping Iranian oil exports. But Iran controls most vessel movements through the lane and is increasingly defiant that it wouldn’t give up control over the passage that used to handle a fifth of daily global oil and LNG flows before the war.
  
  In a message on Thursday, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei – who hasn’t been filmed or recorded since he was elected in early March after his predecessor, and father, was killed – suggested that the only place of the U.S. in the Persian Gulf is “at the bottom of its waters.”
  
  Meanwhile, under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, President Trump is required to terminate any use of U.S. Armed Forces within 60 days after submitting a report of a war to Congress if Congress hasn’t authorized the military action—and it hasn’t.
  
  The 60-day deadline expires on Friday, and could be extended by the President by no more than 30 days.
  
  U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued on Thursday the U.S.-Iran ceasefire “has stopped the clock” on that deadline count, while House Speaker, Republican Mike Johnson, said, “We are not at war.”
  
  Regardless of how the Trump Administration and Congress handle this legal provision, there appears to be no resolution in sight to the deadlock at the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to the loss of hundreds of millions of barrels of crude since the war began.
  
  Related: Repsol Holds Off on U.S. Listing for Upstream Unit Despite 2026 Plans
  
  Losses are growing by the hour, and oil market participants may have finally caught up on the huge loss of supply that won’t be returning for months, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened unconditionally today.
  
  “In round numbers, the 1 billion [barrels] is baked in now because we have probably lost 600 million to 700 million at this stage, but by the time things get moving again, if they get moving again, it takes time to bring all back,” Russell Hardy, CEO at the world’s biggest independent oil trader, Vitol Group, said at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne last week.
  
  The disrupted energy flows triggered a global race for alternative supply, and sent energy prices soaring with the prospect of slowing global economic growth and even leading to a global recession if the world’s most critical oil chokepoint stays mostly inaccessible for another three months. In the U.S., gasoline prices hit their highest level since July 2022, the previous instance in which oil prices spiked to above $100 per barrel after Russia invaded Ukraine.
  
  The U.S. blockade outside Hormuz has been partially effective, according to vessel-tracking and satellite imagery data.
  
  “Iranian export activity remains constrained but adaptive. Kharg Island continues to load, but with queue pressure and dark tanker drift,” marine intelligence firm Windward said in a report on Thursday.
  
  Over the past week, traffic at the Strait of Hormuz has become more active, but the wider system is more opaque, Windward noted.
  
  “Visible transit is increasing, while concealed activity, enforcement reach, and regional operating risk continue to grow.”
  
  With no resolution to the Hormuz deadlock in sight, oil prices would continue to rise as the global system is exhausting the buffers that have cushioned the blow so far.
  
  “Given the magnitude of the production loss and the unavailability of spare capacity, the buffers in the system are insufficient to replace the volumes of lost barrels, and if the disruption persists for longer, the existing buffers will become less effective,” Bassam Fattouh, director at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) and OIES Head of Oil Research, Andreas Economou, wrote in a paper this week.
  
  “Consequently, prices will have to play a central role in the adjustment through their impact on production and consumption.” Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-05-04
  MABUX: Global bunker indices expected to extend downward trend on May 04 amid Iran’s proposal for peace talks.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued its downward movement on May 01: 380 HSFO: USD/MT: 777.92 (-2.05) VLSFO: USD/MT 937.23 (-2.42) MGO: USD/MT 1 474.96 (-9.06) As... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued its downward movement on May 01:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 777.92 (-2.05)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 937.23 (-2.42)
  MGO: USD/MT 1 474.96 (-9.06)
  
  As of May 01, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which tracks the spread between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP), registered the following dynamics across key hubs (Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, Houston):
  
  • HSFO segment: All four ports continued to be undercharged, with discounts narrowing across the board: by $15 in Rotterdam, $31 in Singapore, $27 in Fujairah, and $22 in Houston. MDI values in Rotterdam and Singapore continued to exceed the $100 threshold.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Houston returned to the overcharged zone, becoming the only overpriced port in this segment, with its premium increasing by $11. The other three ports remained undercharged, with discounts narrowing by $14 in Rotterdam, $25 in Singapore, and $50 in Fujairah. MDI values in Rotterdam and Singapore stayed above $100, while Fujairah dropped below this threshold. Houston remained near full correlation between MBP and DBP.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston continued to register undercharging. The underpricing margin widened by $6 in Rotterdam but narrowed by $6 in Singapore and $46 in Houston. Fujairah remained the only overcharged port, although its premium declined by $8. MDI values in Rotterdam and Singapore continued to exceed $100.
  
  The global bunker market is expected to maintain its downward trajectory on May 04, driven by geopolitical signals, including Iran’s proposal for peace talks: 380 HSFO: minus 5-15 USD/MT, VLSFO: minus 5–120USD/MT, MGO LS: minus 4–20 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-05-04
  Russia’s Oil Revenues Surge as the World Scrambles for Supply
  Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, several major world powers introduced strict sanctions on trade with Moscow. Europe and the United States have been gradually decreasing their dependence on Russian gas and other energy products and putting... Read more Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, several major world powers introduced strict sanctions on trade with Moscow. Europe and the United States have been gradually decreasing their dependence on Russian gas and other energy products and putting pressure on other countries to do the same, to place a financial strain on Moscow, as the war with Ukraine continues. However, some countries, such as India and China, have used these sanctions as an excuse to buy discounted crude and gas from Russia, in a bid to reduce costs and boost energy security.
  
  Imports of Russian crude to China and India have increased significantly since 2022. In 2024, China bought a record of more than 100 million tonnes of Russian oil, which contributed nearly 20 percent of its energy imports. Meanwhile, India spent an estimated $140 billion on Russian energy imports. Over the last year, both Asian countries deepened their ties with Moscow following the imposition of high tariffs on imports by the United States.
  
  Although several countries have decreased their dependence on Russian energy since the invasion of Ukraine, shifting dependence to alternative energy sources, some have been forced to turn back to Russia in the wake of the “largest oil disruption in history”. Even the United States, the main advocate for the imposition of strict sanctions on Russian energy, appears to have changed its tune in recent weeks.
  
  On 16th April, the U.S. Treasury Department extended a sanctions exemption on the sale of some Russian crude, which is expected to be in effect until May 16. This follows a previous sanctions waiver on Russia, which expired on April 11. The move by the Trump administration to ease sanctions is in response to the strain placed on the global energy market following the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran in February and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  The move is expected to decrease the cost of oil as countries are permitted to legally purchase hundreds of millions of barrels of crude from Russia. A spokeswoman from the U.S. Treasury said: “As negotiations accelerate, Treasury wants to ensure all oil is available to those who need it.”
  
  In recent weeks, it has remained unclear if the Strait of Hormuz will be fully opened again or whether it will remain under threat of attack. On April 10th, Iran reopened the Strait to all commercial ships before closing it once again less than 24 hours later, citing the ongoing U.S. blockade on Iranian ports as the cause.
  
  As the trade outlook in the Middle East remains uncertain, Russian sales of crude to India are expected to remain near record highs in April and May, largely owing to the latest U.S. sanctions waiver. The finances earned from the sale of Russian oil could help Moscow fund its military spending for the war in Ukraine.
  
  India shipped around 2.25 million bpd of Russian crude in March, marking an increase of almost 100 percent compared to February volumes. Russian crude arrivals in Indian ports were expected to reach 2.1 million bpd for the week of April 20 to 27, an increase from 1.67 million bpd the previous week.
  
  The ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has led India and China to compete for global oil supplies, mainly from Russia, as well as Saudi Arabia. “The competition for Russian crude between India and China has been intense and will continue to be so for June-loading cargoes,” a senior analyst at Kpler, Muyu Xu, told CNBC. “The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz is prompting Asian countries to seek cheap crude that is readily available, and Russian crude falls into this category,” added Xu.
  
  Before the War in Iran, China was importing vast quantities of Iranian crude. However, the conflict has caused major disruptions to energy trade as well as led to the destruction of energy infrastructure across the Middle East. This has led China to rely more heavily on Russia for its oil supplies.
  
  It is not just China and India that are turning to Russian energy, as, in April, Indonesia announced plans to buy up to 150 million barrels of oil from Russia. Roughly 20 to 25 percent of Indonesia’s oil imports typically come from the Middle East and traverse the Strait of Hormuz. “Indonesia has now secured a commitment from the Russian government. We can store 150 million barrels in Indonesia to address economic volatility issues,” the Antara state news agency quoted President Prabowo Subianto’s brother Hashim as saying.
  
  The ongoing Middle East conflict continues to drive up energy prices due to the severe energy trade disruptions, caused largely by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This has led many governments to seek alternative energy sources to ensure their energy security for the coming months. The temporary waiver for sanctions on the import of Russian energy is expected to drive up oil and gas trade significantly in the coming months, which could result in more money being channelled into Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine – the exact thing that the United States and Europe were originally trying to avoid by introducing sanctions. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-05-04
  Inside BP’s Dramatic Pivot Back to Oil and Gas
  As she sat down to pen her first email to BP’s 100,000 staff, Meg O’Neill opted against sparing the radical rhetoric. To the American oil and gas thoroughbred, who had just become the first ever female chief executive of a British energy major, there... Read more As she sat down to pen her first email to BP’s 100,000 staff, Meg O’Neill opted against sparing the radical rhetoric.
  
  To the American oil and gas thoroughbred, who had just become the first ever female chief executive of a British energy major, there was only one course available to her new employer should it wish to avoid extending its more-than-decade-long spell of financial mediocrity.
  
  “Right now, we’re operating in an environment of significant complexity: geopolitical tension; conflict; rapid technological change; and shifting global energy demand,” she told BP employees. “I’m committed to providing clear direction and consistency so we can move forward together with confidence.”
  
  Alongside the memo, the former Woodside chief executive unveiled yet another corporate reset for the petrochemicals giant, returning it to its structure of old with two distinct divisions. One, its upstream division, would deal with discovering and extracting oil and gas. And the other, its downstream arm, would be devoted to refining and selling it.
  
  Taking the shears so aggressively to BP’s historically unwieldy corporate structure left the priority of its new leader beyond doubt. The brief pandemic experiment under former boss Bernard Looney – in which the firm set itself the most ambitious renewable targets of any global energy company – had been fully consigned to the dustbin of history. Instead, O’Neill would accelerate the work begun by her immediate predecessor, Murray Auchincloss, and embrace the same hydrocarbons that powered BP to supermajor status throughout the 20th century.
  
  Middle East tailwind carry BP to stellar first quarter
  
  O’Neill’s energetic start would have made more waves among the BP rank and file, were it not for the fact many will have heard it all before. O’Neill is the fourth chief executive to pass through the doors of BP’s Surrey headquarters in fewer than three years. Meanwhile her reset was BP’s third since the pandemic, as that long line of bosses sought to revive the fortunes of a corporate supertanker that turns over some $189bn a year.
  
  But if the strategic overhaul alone failed to turn heads, then BP’s first quarter trading update on Tuesday – the maiden set of results under O’Neill’s stewardship – was almost unignorable. During the first three months of 2026, profit at the group more than doubled, far exceeding both its own estimates and the expectations of analysts.
  
  Buoyed by the historic turmoil in oil and gas markets caused by the regional conflict in the Middle East, its trading desk, which thrives in volatile markets, posted profit before tax of $3.2bn (£2.4bn); its best quarter since Russia’s Ukraine invasion.
  
  Even more impressive was its ability to keep overall production flat, despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping lane traditionally responsible for carrying a fifth of all seaborne oil and gas traffic, over the last month of the reporting period.
  
  The numbers had analysts gushing. Maurizio Carulli, global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot, hailed them as “both positive and ahead of expectations”. XTB’s Kathleen Brooks simply branded them “stunning”.
  
  They even led Ed Miliband to post a much-derided – and now-deleted – post on X. The bumper profits, he said, had vindicated the government’s decision to extend its controversial windfall tax on North Sea oil, even though over 90 per cent of them were generated beyond the UK.
  
  O’Neill hones in on ‘critical’ work fixing BP’s balance sheet
  
  But despite the eye-catching headline numbers, industry strategists were most encouraged by the progress – and noises – the energy major made about shoring up its historically porous balance sheet. Despite the cash coming at the expense of the company’s now-axed share buyback programme, BP revealed it had redirected the cash that would have been used to purchase shares to pay off $4.3bn of corporate bonds without reissuing them.
  
  “We are pleased to see the planned retirement of some hybrid debt, which will help decrease financing costs,” Carulli added, referencing the more than $1.3bn BP had been spending annually on debt interest alone for much of its recent history.
  
  Carulli and other energy onlookers would have been even more buoyed by the 45 minutes O’Neill and her finance chief Kate Thomson spent on a call with analysts on Tuesday, when the words ‘balance sheet’ were uttered more than a dozen times.
  
  “The balance sheet repair is critical,” O’Neill told strategists on the call, adding: “That, at the end of the day, is something that is going to be a critical focus of the leadership team over the coming years.”
  
  As part of those same efforts, BP has also promised to double down on simplifying its sprawling portfolio, too much of which has been vastly underperforming. In December, it offloaded its lubricant business, Castrol, to an American private equity firm for $10.1bn. And last month, it sold a German refinery that had been plagued by issues Klesch Group, for an undisclosed amount. Those sales will both count towards the group’s ambitious plan to bank $20bn through asset disposals by next year. Both of those came after the even more stunning decision under Auchincloss to cancel $10bn worth of investment in renewable projects, and divert it into its petrochemicals arm.
  
  On Tuesday’s same earnings call, O’Neill confirmed that the group would continue to evaluate the divisions and assets fit to carry forward into the slimmed-down BP, telling analysts: “Every industry needs to be asking itself which businesses are part of that [divestment].”
  
  But while the firm’s latest trading update galvanised most of its investors – its shares popped nearly three per cent on the day despite it having already told shareholders to expect “exceptional” earnings – there are signs the supermajor’s owner-base remains restive; and divided.
  
  Shareholders divided over pace of oil and gas embrace
  
  Less than a week before the results, its board lost two different votes at an eagerly anticipated annual general meeting. Shareholders rejected resolutions on shifting the gathering to a virtual affair and a plan to abandon a minor element of its climate reporting. Even more concerning was the fact nearly a fifth of shareholders rejected the reelection of new chair Albert Manifold – the ultimate figurehead for BP’s embrace of oil, gas and a simpler structure. Most chairs are reelected with near-unanimous investor support.
  
  While unquestionably embarrassing, to Quilter’s Carulli, the vote did not amount to more than a “storm in a teacup”.
  
  “Manifold has actually done quite a good job in the past couple of months,” he told City AM. “And I don’t think we should read into this as a lack of confidence in the chair, but he is a lightning rod for other areas of dissatisfaction. Those other areas are not substantial ones, either. It’s more a warning shot that he and the board need to look out for shareholders’ wishes.”
  
  That copybook blot notwithstanding, had you given O’Neill and Manifold the option to have a rebellion-free shareholder meeting over that accommodating first-quarter update, they would undoubtedly have booked the cold, dispassionate 113 per cent jump in profit every time.
  
  It is hard to overstate the dire straits in which the only out-and-out British energy major found itself just a year ago. After all its chopping and changing, shares in BP from the start of 2022 to this time last year were exactly flat. Shell’s over the same period were up a buoyant 72 per cent. Things got so bad that in May 2025, rumours abounded that its Anglo-Dutch rival was lining up a mega-bid. And shortly before then, it had emerged that famed and feared activist investor Elliott Management had taken out a five per cent stake in the group, which it has used to pummel the group to accelerate its simplification.
  
  A year on, and all arrows are pointing in a more lucrative direction. Since that nadir, the group’s stock price has risen some 63 per cent as shareholders gorged on its re-embrace of fossil fuels. And even Elliott’s uncompromising team appears sated. A person familiar with the New York hedge fund’s thinking told City AM that Manifold’s first few months had been “encouraging”, and that he has already been a “positive catalyst for change”.
  
  Perhaps when O’Neill next sits down to address her 100,000 staff – she will be able to adopt a somewhat less alarmist tone on the state BP finds itself in. For now though, as the Elliott source went to lengths to stress somewhat forebodingly, “it’s still early days”. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-05-04
  Iran’s Currency Crisis Deepens as War Batters Economy
  Iran's currency has fallen to a record low against the US dollar as the two-month-long conflict rattles the country's sanctions-hit economy. Air strikes by the United States and Israel, launched at Iran on February 28, along with the American naval... Read more Iran's currency has fallen to a record low against the US dollar as the two-month-long conflict rattles the country's sanctions-hit economy.
  
  Air strikes by the United States and Israel, launched at Iran on February 28, along with the American naval blockade on Iranian ports and vessels, have disrupted Tehran's vital oil exports, hampered domestic production, and fueled inflation.
  
  Iran's national currency, the rial, dropped to a new low of 1.81 million to the US dollar on April 29 before rebounding the next day. The rial has seen its value fall by ‌nearly 15 percent in recent days, according to Iranian media.
  
  Iran and the United States agreed to a cease-fire on April 8, although Washington increased economic pressure by imposing a blockade on April 13, a move that has made it harder for Tehran to obtain hard currency through exports.
  
  According to Iran's Central Bank, annual inflation, which was above 40 percent before the war, increased to 50 percent as of April 4.
  
  Iranians say the prices of basic goods such as rice, eggs, and chicken have increased significantly since the conflict began.
  
  Rising inflation was the catalyst for nationwide protests that broke out in January and posed one of the biggest threats to the Iran's clerical rulers since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
  
  The authorities responded to the demonstrations with unprecedented force, killing thousands of people, according to human rights groups.
  
  Iran, too, has sought to impose significant economic pain on the United States and its allies. It responded to US-Israel air strikes by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil and gas supplies, to international shipping.
  
  The move has rattled international energy markets and upended the global economy.
  
  On April 29, the price of Brent crude rose by almost 7 percent to over $126 a barrel, the highest since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-05-04
  Oil Prices Fall as Trump Launches “Project Freedom” and OPEC+ Increases Output
  Oil prices edged lower in early Asian trading on Monday after President Trump announced the U.S. would guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+ confirmed a modest output increase. At the time of writing, WTI crude was down 0.65% at $101.30,... Read more Oil prices edged lower in early Asian trading on Monday after President Trump announced the U.S. would guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+ confirmed a modest output increase.
  
  At the time of writing, WTI crude was down 0.65% at $101.30, while Brent crude had dropped 0.39% to $107.80.
  
  The President took to social media on Sunday to announce that "Project Freedom" would begin on Monday morning, Middle Eastern time. The project will involve the U.S. guiding stranded vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz. He emphasized that the stranded ships would be from "areas of the world that are not in any way involved" with the conflict in the Middle East.
  
  In the same post, Trump described the discussions with Iran as “very positive”, suggesting they could lead to broader de-escalation. U.S. Central Command confirmed the operation would involve significant military support, including over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, and 15,000 personnel.
  
  The announcement appears to have at least temporarily tempered some of the geopolitical risk concerns that sent prices spiking last week.
  
  Adding to the downward pressure on prices, OPEC+ confirmed on Sunday a modest production increase for June. The group said seven members would raise output targets by 188,000 barrels per day, marking the third consecutive monthly increase.
  
  In reality, actual supply from OPEC+ members remains severely restricted as the Hormuz disruption has sharply curtailed exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait. The UAE, which announced its decision to exit the group last week, has also seen its production curtailed by the conflict.
  
  Even if shipping lanes reopen, it will likely take months for flows to normalize, meaning the OPEC+ announcement (like the UAE's decision to leave the group last week) is only relevant for mid- to long-term oil market outlooks.
  
  For now, traders are pricing in tentative optimism over a diplomatic breakthrough and an increase in tanker traffic through the Straight, but any sustained recovery in supply hinges on a durable agreement, which appears a long way off. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-05-04
  Venezuela Oil Exports Hit Seven-Year High
  Venezuela’s oil exports rose to 1.23 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, the highest level since 2018, as shipments to the United States, India, and Europe accelerated. Exports climbed 14% from March levels, according to shipping data and PDVSA... Read more Venezuela’s oil exports rose to 1.23 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, the highest level since 2018, as shipments to the United States, India, and Europe accelerated.
  
  Exports climbed 14% from March levels, according to shipping data and PDVSA documents, with 66 cargoes leaving Venezuelan ports during the month. That compares with 61 vessels in March carrying about 1.08 million bpd.
  
  Since the January capture of Nicolas Maduro and the installation of an interim government, Washington has eased sanctions and taken control of Venezuelan oil sales. That shift has reopened access for trading houses and joint-venture partners, including Chevron, to move barrels into U.S., European, and Asian markets.
  
  The result is a rapid drawdown of inventories alongside a gradual recovery in output.
  
  Flows to the United States are rising again, with Chevron already importing Venezuelan crude into Gulf Coast refineries designed to process heavy barrels. India is also increasing its take, adding another outlet for volumes that had been stranded under sanctions.
  
  International oil companies are also moving back in.
  
  New agreements signed this week with U.S. firms Hunt Overseas and Crossover Energy target the Orinoco Belt, Venezuela’s core heavy crude region. European majors, including Eni, Repsol, and BP are also expanding or exploring positions, while ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips have sent teams to assess opportunities.
  
  Venezuela is moving from an isolated producer to an active supplier again, with multiple buyers and operators re-entering the system.
  
  Even so, the recovery has limits. Venezuela still produces a fraction of its historical capacity, and rebuilding infrastructure will require tens of billions of dollars over several years.
  
  For now, the barrels are coming from inventory and incremental output gains. Nevertheless, Venezuelan crude is back in the market, and it is moving across multiple destinations at a time when global supply remains tight. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-05-04
  Syria Still Leans on Russia for Oil Supply
  Russia remains Syria’s top oil supplier and has even boosted its sales so far this year despite the fact that the Middle Eastern country emerged from a 14-year-long civil war leaning West and deposing Russia-backed leader Bashar al-Assad. Syria’s imports... Read more Russia remains Syria’s top oil supplier and has even boosted its sales so far this year despite the fact that the Middle Eastern country emerged from a 14-year-long civil war leaning West and deposing Russia-backed leader Bashar al-Assad.
  
  Syria’s imports of oil from Russia have jumped by about 75% so far this year compared to the estimated 2025 average, according to Reuters calculations and vessel-monitoring data.
  
  Last year, Russia delivered a total of 16.8 million barrels of oil to Syria, equal to about 46,000 bpd, one of the Syrian officials who spoke to Reuters said.
  
  This year, the estimated daily imports of Russian oil into Syria are about 60,000 bpd year to date, according to calculations and analyses by Reuters.
  
  Nearly two dozen tankers, all of which are under Western sanctions, have been regularly shipping oil from Russia into Syria, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Reuters.
  
  The development is a risk for Syria’s new leadership, which has just seen the U.S. and the other Western countries drop sanctions against Syria for the first time in decades, following the ousting of al-Assad.
  
  If the U.S. somehow decides to punish Russia for not cooperating for peace in Ukraine, it could demand Syria halt Russian oil imports, Syrian economist Karam Shaar told Reuters.
  
  Syria’s reliance on Russian oil is not for a lack of trying. Syria unsuccessfully sought to reach an oil supply deal with Turkey, an official at the state Syrian Petroleum Company (SPC) told Reuters.
  
  While Syria relies on Russian oil imports, it is courting Western companies to develop its oil and gas sector, which has been left in disarray during the civil war.
  
  Syria expects to award oil and gas exploration licenses to major international oil firms as it looks to tap its estimated huge reserves, the chief executive of the state-owned Syrian Petroleum Company told the Financial Times in February.
  
  Syria is tapping U.S. firms Chevron and ConocoPhillips and European majors TotalEnergies and Eni to help it drill for oil and gas and revive the country’s hydrocarbon industry, Youssef Qablawi, CEO of Syrian Petroleum Company, told FT.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com

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