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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
995.00
-32.00
1 270.00
-30.00
Apr 13
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	995.00	-32.00	1 270.00	-30.00	Apr 13

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
756.72	-6.71	876.33	-7.16	1 456.67	-12.66	Apr 15

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	633	663	-30	660	739	-79	1 270	1 275	-5	Apr 15
Singapore	666	689	-23	736	821	-85	1 510	1 268	+242	Apr 15
Fujairah	627	635	-8	720	790	-70	1 500	1 331	+169	Apr 15
Houston	635	680	-45	835	788	+47	1 200	1 155	+45	Apr 15

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Latest News
- 2026-04-15
  Oil mixed as Middle East supply uncertainty outweighs hopes for US-Iran talks
  Oil prices were mixed on Wednesday with Brent futures up and U.S. futures down amid uncertainty over crude supply from the key Middle East producing region as the Strait of Hormuz remains mainly shut. Brent crude futures were up 40 cents, or 0.4%, to... Read more Oil prices were mixed on Wednesday with Brent futures up and U.S. futures down amid uncertainty over crude supply from the key Middle East producing region as the Strait of Hormuz remains mainly shut.
  Brent crude futures were up 40 cents, or 0.4%, to $95.19 a barrel at 0420 GMT, paring earlier losses of as much as 0.9%, after falling 4.6% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $91.05. The contract earlier fell as much as 4.7% after dropping 7.9% the session before.
  Talks to end the war between the U.S. and Israel and Iran could resume in Pakistan over the next two days, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, after the collapse of negotiations over the weekend prompted Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports. This has increased optimism talks could eventually settle the conflict and open up crude oil and fuel flows.
  While the market is thinking the worst is over and factoring in further rounds of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran in the coming days, there is more hope than actual developments at this point, said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank.
  "Physical oil is still trading at significant premiums to these futures prices," he said.
  The war has mostly shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for crude and refined product flows out of the Gulf to global buyers, particularly in Asia and Europe.
  
  Refiners are desperately seeking alternative crude supply, pushing the premiums they are willing to pay for oil from areas such as the U.S. Gulf Coast and North Sea. A cargo of WTI Midland for delivery to Rotterdam traded at a record premium of $22.80 a barrel above benchmark European prices on Tuesday.
  Despite a two-week ceasefire, transit through the strait remains uncertain, with traffic at only a fraction of the 130 or so vessels that moved through the waterway before the war, sources said on Tuesday.
  A U.S. destroyer stopped two oil tankers from leaving Iran on Tuesday, a U.S. official said.
  "While diplomatic headlines suggest the possibility of renewed U.S.-Iran talks and even a temporary easing of transit restrictions, the physical reality remains fragmented," the Schork Group said in a note.
  The market stands to lose some access to further supply after two U.S. administration officials told Reuters on Tuesday the U.S. will not renew a 30-day waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil at sea that expires this week, and quietly let a similar waiver on sanctions on Russian oil expire over the weekend.
  Later in the day, markets will be watching for official U.S. inventory data from the Energy Information Administration due at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT).
  U.S. crude oil stockpiles were expected to have risen slightly last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories likely fell, a Reuters poll showed.
  
  Market sources familiar with American Petroleum Institute figures said on Tuesday U.S. crude oil inventories jumped for the third straight week.
  Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-04-15
  The U.S. Is Making Major Strides Toward Nuclear Fuel Independence
  Nuclear energy is poised for a major comeback in the United States. Donald Trump has made the revitalization of the domestic nuclear power sector a major aim of his administration, with the stated goal to reestablish the United States as the global leader... Read more Nuclear energy is poised for a major comeback in the United States. Donald Trump has made the revitalization of the domestic nuclear power sector a major aim of his administration, with the stated goal to reestablish the United States as the global leader in nuclear energy. The idea is that updating and expanding the United States' aging nuclear fleet will give the country a major leg up in terms of energy independence and autonomy.
  
  However, the U.S. nuclear energy sector – like the vast majority of the global nuclear sector – is extremely reliant on imported nuclear fuel, largely from Kazakhstan and Russia. And prices for uranium are soaring on the global market thanks to a global nuclear energy resurgence. The World Nuclear Association projects that global demand for uranium will balloon 28 percent by 2030 and nearly double by 2040, causing increased competition between nuclear energy producers around the world.
  
  At present, only five plants in the world operate large-scale uranium conversion, and half of global capacity is controlled by Russia, resulting in a major resource bottleneck and precarious geopolitical pain points. As a result, "U.S. nuclear energy faces fuel supply chain vulnerabilities, with tight uranium supplies, geopolitical risks, and rising costs threatening both existing reactors costs and advanced reactor development," according to a January report from Stanford Energy.
  
  What is more, China and Russia have been securing nuclear fuel supply chains for decades as the West backed away from nuclear energy. Now that the world is re-embracing the controversial resource, it may be too late for Europe and the United States to get a foothold in key uranium markets. "Russian and Chinese players have been very keen to secure access to resources in central Asia and Africa, creating a very aggressive competitive environment," Benjamin Godwin at Prism Strategic Intelligence told the Financial Times last year.
  
  Achieving true nuclear energy independence will therefore require the United States to cultivate a homegrown nuclear fuel sector. As luck would have it, the United States is home to vast quantities of uranium, but building up supply chains to extract and enrich that uranium takes a lot of time and money. To homeshore these supply chains efficiently and cost-effectively, multiple approaches are necessary, including the extraction of new uranium resources as well as the recycling of spent nuclear fuel. And the United States is making considerable progress on both.
  
  Just this month, uranium production began at the largest uranium in-situ recovery (ISR) site seen in the country in over a decade. "The estimated resource from the project, located on a 20,000-acre site, is currently 6,155,000 pounds of U3O8, the most stable form of uranium oxide," states an Interesting Engineering report published last week. The Burke Hollow site in South Texas is the latest development from The Uranium Energy Corporation (UEC), which also has a similar operation site in Wyoming.
  
  "UEC's recent production achievements in Texas and Wyoming highlight the importance of uranium production as the foundation of a secure, domestic nuclear fuel cycle," said Chris Wright, US Energy Secretary. "As we continue rebuilding the full fuel cycle, including key downstream infrastructure, this progress shows we can build it here and lead from here."
  
  The United States is also funding high-level research into recycling spent nuclear fuel, which could potentially boost resource utilization by a jaw-dropping 95 percent. "Used nuclear fuel is an incredible untapped resource in the United States," Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy Ted Garrish was quoted by World Nuclear News back in February. "The Trump Administration is taking a common-sense approach to making sure we're using our resources in the most efficient ways possible to secure American energy independence and fuel our economic growth."
  
  Together, these measures will be transformative for the independence and autonomy of the United States nuclear sector, which is the single-largest in the world. It may also inadvertently represent an important step forward for clean energy production in an era of anti-renewable sentiment, as nuclear power production does not release any carbon dioxide. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-15
  IEA Chief Issues Stark Warning on Oil Prices
  Just as oil prices on the futures market slip again on hopes for a quick end to the war in the Middle East, the head of the International Energy Agency issued a warning: prices are going to go higher yet. “Prices are already high, but they are not... Read more Just as oil prices on the futures market slip again on hopes for a quick end to the war in the Middle East, the head of the International Energy Agency issued a warning: prices are going to go higher yet.
  
  “Prices are already high, but they are not reflecting the severity of the problem — I agree there is a disconnect,” Fatih Birol said at an event this week, as quoted by Bloomberg. “But I think soon we will see they will converge, which is an extremely sensitive issue for the global economy.”
  
  The war has so far cost Middle Eastern producers as much as 13 million barrels daily in lost output, and that is just crude oil. Exports of crude plus refined products have slumped by an estimated 20 million barrels, the head of the IEA said. He added that more than 80 oil and gas facilities in the region have been damaged, contributing to the severity of the situation.
  
  Meanwhile, the longer the war continues, the more oil production will be lost. Nomura this week warned that it expected an additional loss of 2.3 million barrels daily for March. Compared to a year earlier, Middle Eastern oil production is down by 9.3 million barrels daily, equal to a rather concerning supply squeeze of 57%.
  
  Despite these developments, oil benchmarks were down today, after topping $100 per barrel earlier this week following President Donald Trump’s latest move on Iran, involving a stated full blockade on vessel traffic to and from Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf. Analysts explained the decline with hopes that the ceasefire agreed at the end of last week would not be canceled despite the blockade.
  
  Supply, however, remains constrained, as evidenced by the latest surge in physical oil prices. These hit an all-time high of $150 per barrel for oil for immediate delivery in Europe and Africa. The surge comes as parts of the world, notably Europe and Asia, scramble for fresh oil supply as the last tankers that left the Middle East before Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz approach their final destinations at receiving refineries.
  
  “It will hit the west in a month when all the Asian cargoes bought leave the Atlantic basin,” Energy Aspects analyst Nic Dyer told the Financial Times. “Refineries in Europe and the US will also have to cut runs from next month to share the pain of the shortage,” Dyer noted.
  
  In Asia, refiners are already ramping down, despite draws from strategic and commercial stockpiles, suggesting the crude oil supply squeeze is more serious than many futures traders might assume, echoing Birol’s expectations about much higher prices down the road.
  
  “Signs are emerging that the system may be coming under increasing strain,” JP Morgan’s Natasha Kaneva told the FT. “European and Asian refiners are competing aggressively for the remaining cargoes, driving spot Brent price — more directly tied to prompt physical delivery than Brent futures — to record highs.”
  
  Earlier this month, the IEA’s Birol said that the current oil crisis is worse than all oil shocks from the 20th and 21st centuries so far taken together. “The world has never experienced disruption to energy supply of such magnitude,” Birol told French newspaper Le Figaro in an interview. The IEA last month announced it would coordinate an emergency release of 400 million barrels from OECD stocks to tackle the crisis. This is the largest emergency oil release in the agency’s history.
  
  The abrupt change in the tone of the agency that has for two years been predicting a slump in oil demand that was causing a massive glut is telling enough. It is evidence that a glut—massive or not so much—could flip into a shortage very quickly, shattering a lot of assumptions, including about oil demand. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-15
  Oil Pulls Back as IEA Cuts Demand Outlook
  Oil prices have dipped below $100 as weaker demand outlooks and a pause in U.S.–Iran tensions shift market focus to upcoming diplomatic talks and potential escalation risks. Calm Seas, High Stakes: Hormuz Traffic Crawls as Gulf Freight Costs Surge -... Read more Oil prices have dipped below $100 as weaker demand outlooks and a pause in U.S.–Iran tensions shift market focus to upcoming diplomatic talks and potential escalation risks.
  
  Calm Seas, High Stakes: Hormuz Traffic Crawls as Gulf Freight Costs Surge
  
  - The first days of the US blockade on vessels calling at Iranian ports have so far been largely uneventful as several Iran-linked tankers managed to sail through the Strait of Hormuz without any interference.
  - At the same time, most of tankers were moving into the Persian Gulf and so far only two ships managed to move out of the Gulf since Monday afternoon, with no Iranian crude shipments seen so far.
  - Tehran might be wary of sending crude tankers through the Hormuz, potentially to be intercepted by the US Navy, claiming they’ll temporarily pause shipments before the next round of talks.
  - Pakistani sources indicate that this weekend could see another round of US-Iranian negotiations after the first round of Islamabad talks on April 11-12 yielded no results.
  - Average daily transits through the Hormuz before the war averaged 135 per day, falling to 8-10 transits per day in April so far.
  
  - The lack of diplomatic progress and Trump’s declared counter-blockade have started to push freight rates up again, with Gulf-China VLCC charter rates now rebounding above $80/tonne, the equivalent of $11/barrel.
  
  Market Movers
  
  - Italy's oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) has announced the discovery of commercial reserves of natural gas with its 1-4/16 exploration well offshore Libya, some 95 km from the country's coast in the Pelagian Basin.
  - UK energy major BP (NYSE:BP) has agreed to purchase stakes in three offshore exploration blocks in Namibia, marking its entry to the nascent oil producer, farming into plays operated by frontier driller Eco Atlantic.
  - US oil services giant Baker Hughes (NASDAQ:BKR) said it would sell its unit, Waygate Technologies, to Sweden-based Hexagon for $1.45 billion in cash, continuing its strategy of divesting non-core assets.
  - French energy major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) has signed a preliminary agreement with Turkey's TPAO to explore the country's Black Sea waters for oil, only three years after pulling out of gas exploration in adjacent Bulgaria's offshore.
  - Brazil’s state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) reported another deepwater discovery in the Campos Basin some 200 km off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, finding commercial reserves of oil within Block-C-M-477.
  
  Tuesday, April 14, 2026
  
  The IEA’s drastic slashing of 2026 global demand growth and the awkward lull in US-Iran confrontation have pushed oil prices lower so far this week, with ICE Brent back at trading several dollars below the $100 per barrel mark. Unless the US blockade of the Arabian Sea turns to a kinetic phase over the upcoming days, the second round of Islamabad talks will shape the futures curve of crude oil.
  
  Chevron Expands Its Footprint in Venezuela. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) will increase its stake in Venezuela's Petroindependencia project from 34% to 49%, whilst also getting an unspecified stake in the newly formed Ayacucho joint venture with PDVSA, boosting its outlook profile in the country.
  
  IEA Warns of a Giant Wave of Demand Destruction. According to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand will contract this year by 80,000 b/d, the first annual decline in consumption since the COVID-19 peak year of 2020, down more than 700,000 b/d compared to last month's forecast.
  
  China's Appetite for Saudi Oil Wanes. Saudi state oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) has received the lowest volume of monthly nominations from Chinese term buyers in history, with only 18 million barrels of China-bound oil expected to load in May, dropping by 750,000 b/d from April.
  
  Oman Offers New Exploration Blocks. Benefitting from a reputation boost after the US-Iran war has largely left its upstream industry unscathed, the government of Oman is now offering 5 concession areas in the eastern and central parts of the Middle Eastern country, covering a total of 53,275 km2.
  
  China Continues to Import Oil, Despite Iran War. China's crude oil imports averaged 11.77 million b/d in March, only 2.8% lower year-over-year despite the loss of most Middle Eastern supplies, even though refinery utilization rates have dipped below 70%
  Related: Trump Signals High Gas Prices Through November Midterms
  
  Philippines Seeks US Waiver on Russian Imports. The Philippines' Ministry of Energy has asked the US Treasury Department for a waiver to continue importing Russian crude oil and petroleum products, claiming that the country needs more 'options' to maintain stable energy supplies.
  
  India Hints at Further Hormuz Passages Ahead. The Indian government said that it had ‘good contacts' with Iranian authorities on potential passage of Indian ships via the Strait of Hormuz, after at least 8 India-flagged vessels have managed to leave the Persian Gulf since the US-Iran war started.
  
  BP's New CEO Eyes Splitting of Company into Two. BP's new chief executive Meg O'Neill is considering splitting the UK-based energy giant into two units, creating a business focused solely on oil and gas exploration and another covering refining, distribution and retail operations.
  
  Methanol Tanker Breaks Trump's Hormuz Blockade. An Iran-linked but Chinese-owned tanker carrying methanol to China became the first ship moving out of the Persian Gulf to breach the Trump administration's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, lowering risks of immediate escalation in the seas.
  
  Financial Organizations Warn Against Energy Hoarding. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank launched a joint call against hoarding energy supplies and imposing export controls on commodities, claiming protectionist measures exacerbate the impact of the Hormuz Strait closure.
  
  Brazil Wants Its Refinery Back. Brazil's state oil company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) is reportedly in initial talks with Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund Mubadala to repurchase the 300,000 b/d Mataripe refinery, sold five years ago for $1.7 billion, claiming it is running at only 60% of its capacity.
  
  India Buys Its 1st Iranian Cargoes Since 2019. India's largest state-owned refiner IOC purchased the country's first Iranian oil cargo in seven years, with the Curacao-flagged Jaya tanker delivering 2 million barrels of oil to the port of Odisha, with privately owned Reliance taking a similar VLCC cargo to Sikka.
  
  Russia Imposes Export Controls on Helium. Following the loss of Qatari helium supply for the next 1-2 years, the global chipmaking industry is facing shortages of a key component for chip lithography as Russia has imposed export controls, potentially taking 10% of global supply off the market.
  
  Dr. Copper Hopes for a Quick End to War. Copper prices climbed to their highest in more than a month after Iran confirmed its readiness for second-round negotiations with the United States, with the benchmark three-month ME contract trading above $13,180/tonne on hopes of a potential deal. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-15
  MABUX: Global bunker market to extend downward correction on Apr. 15 amid renewed expectations of US–Iran talks.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued its corrective decline on Apr. 14 for the second consecutive session: 380 HSFO: USD/MT: 763.43 (-2.46) VLSFO: USD/MT 883.49 (-7.34) MGO:... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued its corrective decline on Apr. 14 for the second consecutive session:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 763.43 (-2.46)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 883.49 (-7.34)
  MGO: USD/MT 1 469.33 (-46.31)
  
  Singapore prompt bunker supply remains tight in the near term, as barge schedules are congested and some traders avoid building excess inventory amid ongoing price volatility. The delivered premium over cargo is around $32/mt, remaining at a relatively firm level. This indicates that logistical constraints continue to support delivered prices, limiting their full alignment with the softer cargo market.
  
  As of Apr. 14, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — which measures the deviation between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP), indicated the following developments across key global ports (Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston):
  
  • HSFO segment: All four ports remained in the undercharge zone, with discounts widening across the board: by $47 in Rotterdam, $12 in Singapore, $37 in Fujairah, and $29 in Houston. Notably, Houston’s MDI approached the $100 threshold, indicating a significant undervaluation.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Houston re-entered the undercharge zone, resulting in all four ports being undervalued. Discounts expanded by $51 in Rotterdam, $33 in Singapore, $53 in Fujairah, and $28 in Houston. The MDI in Rotterdam, Singapore, and Fujairah exceeded the $100 mark, signaling deepening underpricing.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Rotterdam and Houston shifted into the undercharge zone, with discounts widening by $108 and $57, respectively. Meanwhile, Singapore and Fujairah remained in the overcharge zone; however, premiums declined sharply by $153 and $148, indicating easing overvaluation pressure.
  
  Amid improving geopolitical sentiment linked to potential US–Iran dialogue, MABUX expects the global bunker market to continue its downward correction on Apr. 15: minus 5-25 USD/MT, VLSFO: minus 5–30 USD/MT, MGO LS: minus 15–40 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-04-15
  Oil Markets on Edge as U.S. Blockade Takes Effect
  A US naval blockade on ships entering Iranian ports and coastal areas has come into effect, following failed peace talks between US and Iranian negotiators over the weekend. And it already poses a dilemma: risk attack from Iranian assets near the Strait... Read more A US naval blockade on ships entering Iranian ports and coastal areas has come into effect, following failed peace talks between US and Iranian negotiators over the weekend.
  
  And it already poses a dilemma: risk attack from Iranian assets near the Strait of Hormuz or hold back and hope to catch vessels breaking out into the open seas.
  
  The move is the latest attempt by US President Donald Trump to force Iran into making concessions, including a commitment not to seek a nuclear weapon or the means to build one.
  
  It follows more than a month of air strikes and long-standing economic sanctions.
  
  Military Aspect
  
  Washington has substantial naval and air forces in the region which could be expected to enforce the blockade. For some, it would mean a switch from carrying out air strikes to interdicting civilian vessels.
  
  Attempting to do this from in or near the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which Iranian seaborne exports pass, could put US naval assets at risk from attack by Iranian drones, missiles, or small fast attack ships.
  
  Sea Ports
  
  Several weeks of US and Israeli air strikes have severely degraded Iranian capacity, but the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has its own naval units composed of these small craft, which have continued to attack shipping in the Persian Gulf.
  
  “If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED,” wrote Trump on social media shortly after it came into force.
  
  The risks could be minimized.
  
  Given that, for example, some 90 percent of Iranian oil shipments go to China, US forces could conceivably sit back and police the blockade from a distance where they would be less vulnerable.
  
  “They could choose to position themselves outside the Persian Gulf…without physically controlling the Strait [of Hormuz] itself,” Mohammad Farsi, a former Iranian naval officer, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda after Trump announced the blockade. “They don’t need to sit inside the Strait.”
  
  But Farsi said he doubted such an approach would be effective. It would mean patrolling a wider stretch of sea than the 30-kilometer-wide waterway.
  
  Jeremy Stoehs, a naval expert at the Austrian Center for Intelligence, Propaganda and Security Studies (ACIPSS), agreed it would be difficult.
  
  "A blockade at distance would pose quite a significant challenge for US forces in the theater, especially as civilian vessels go dark to evade being stopped," he told RFE/RL.
  
  "The US Navy notoriously lacks smaller surface combatants, such as frigates, and would have to release its Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and other higher-end assets into such taskings," he added.
  
  Economic Impact
  
  The decision to target Iranian-linked shipping has a clear economic logic, laid out in a recent US policy note.
  
  “Oil revenue from China accounts for about 45 percent of Iran’s government budget,” said a factsheet published by the US Congress on March 16.
  
  In recent weeks, Iran’s near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping other than its own has been described as a chokehold on the world economy, shutting it off from oil, gas, and other crucial commodities.
  
  The US blockade aims to strangle the Iranian economy, which has continued benefiting from oil exports despite the war that began with US and Israeli air strikes on February 28.
  
  “Iran actually was able to export quite high quantities of its oil, basically the same as last year in the same month,” Isaac Levy, an analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), told RFE/RL on April 13.
  
  “If the US do block that, it would prohibit the Iranian regime from adding a lot of money from this, but it would have upward pressure on global oil prices taking off…54 million barrels [per month] when there's currently a huge supply constraint,” he added.
  
  This danger was already evident in the hours after the blockade was announced, as physical crude oil prices in Europe surged to record levels around $150 per barrel. Benchmark Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel, adding to price pressures that extend across the globe.
  
  “The decision Mr. Trump has taken could have serious effects both on the US economy and on overall social cohesion -- particularly in terms of the burden on American consumers at the gas pump,” Mohammad Ghaedi, a lecturer at George Washington University, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda on April 13.
  
  Iranian countermeasures might add to the economic damage, he said, adding that attacks by the Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait -- another crucial Middle East shipping route -- could “remove about 12 percent of global energy supply from the market.”
  
  China
  
  There are also potentially major diplomatic repercussions to the blockade.
  
  It’s not clear if Chinese-flagged ships are visiting Iranian ports. Historically, shadow fleets of rusting oil tankers used by Iran, Russia, and Venezuela have mostly flown flags of convenience from countries such as Sierra Leone, Gabon, or the Marshall Islands. These would be likely targets of US enforcement action.
  
  However, earlier Trump comments suggested the blockade would also extend to vessels paying a toll to Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  "I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas," he said.
  
  According to marine intelligence company Windward, two Chinese vessels, the He Rong Hai, a tanker, and the Jin Hai Hua, a bulk carrier, exited the strait on April 10. They both began their voyages in the United Arab Emirates, not Iran.
  
  It’s not clear if they paid a toll that Iran has been demanding – at $2 million per ship – to enable a trickle of traffic through the once-busy waterway. If such a payment were made in a cryptocurrency, it might be nearly impossible to trace.
  
  It’s also worth noting that the CENTCOM announcement of the blockade says it will be applied to vessels entering Iranian “coastal areas.” This would include the path taken by many vessels that have, so far, transited the strait with Tehran’s blessing.
  
  In any case, the US Navy seizing or boarding a Chinese-flagged vessel could cause major diplomatic tensions, just as Trump is expected to visit Beijing for a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next month.
  
  Economically, while China relies on Iran for oil supplies, it might be shielded from an immediate hit by the large stocks of oil it built up before the current conflict started. It is also able to tap into relatively large quantities of Iranian oil at sea, much of it already off the Chinese coast.
  
  Furthermore, Iranian supplies make up some 8 percent of China’s seaborne oil imports. China can source this elsewhere.
  
  “However, obviously China is buying a lot of this sanctioned oil due to the purpose that it's sold at a significant price discount,” said Levy, adding that replacement oil would be much more expensive, impacting small Chinese refiners that work on razor-thin margins. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-15
  The Oilfield Service Crunch Is Here
  On March 9th, I wrote in an article for Oilprice.com titled “Why $100 Oil Isn’t Going to Spark a New Shale Boom.” My point, nine days into Operation Epic Fury, was that “No one—that I know—is carrying on much about the recent jump in prices, let alone... Read more On March 9th, I wrote in an article for Oilprice.com titled “Why $100 Oil Isn’t Going to Spark a New Shale Boom.” My point, nine days into Operation Epic Fury, was that “No one—that I know—is carrying on much about the recent jump in prices, let alone cheering them on. Outside of thinking we'd better hedge, the response has mostly been a few words, a few shrugs, a ‘let’s take it while we can, attitude. Our collective reaction would surprise outsiders, but…was normal to me. It’s also normal to assume that when the war comes to an end, we will be left with a supply and demand picture that may have changed…but maybe not enough to be supportive of a renewed push to pick up rigs that were just laid down.”
  
  Premeditatedly, a cover-my-ass move, really, I added “If oil were sustained at $90, the script would flip.”
  
  A month later, 45 days into the war, the script has flipped. The Straits is closed and mined, and the Islamabad summit between the U.S. and Iran failed to reach a universal agreement—no surprise given the opposing red lines. WTI is going up, and not down, and even when it does go down, the base oil price reset will last. The once generally accepted year-end price of $58 is a long distant memory when, according to analysts Eric Nuttall and Rory Johnson, 13 MMBO is being lost every day due to closure.
  
  In the event there is any debate about the number, Jeff Currie of Goldman and now Carlyle believes daily losses are even larger.
  
  That is what has woken U.S. E&Ps—the durability of not just higher prices, but higher prices for longer. That is, a lasting supply shock.
  
  In late February, when I was dragging my way towards a 2026 drilling program, trying to convince myself that I was right and everyone else was wrong with their $58 projections, every service company I called was available. Liberty Energy’s Denver camp had plenty of room on their schedule. Then, war, and by the third week of March, they were sold out until September. Two weeks later, they revised to sold out for the year.
  
  That made sense, E&P’s rushing to complete low-hanging fruit like DUCs.
  
  Next up were service rigs. Planned drill-outs after fracs are now absorbing whatever spare capacity is left in the service rig market. Adding to the squeeze is the rush to mobilize rigs to do remedial work like replacing long-neglected downhole pumps and tubing leaks. Why bother at $59 oil? But at $100, it’s a rush to maximize production quickly.
  
  Now it’s drilling rigs. Continental Resources was dropping its entire Bakken program back in January; now it’s not. Rigs that were to be laid down and let go are being kept and extended, with idled rigs being picked up as well. As Trent O’Shields, a salesman for Cyclone Drilling in Wyoming, told me, “the beginning of the year, we had twice too many rigs, now we only got half what we need.”
  
  Service companies like mine, a hydraulic frac company, are being pressured to hold the line on pricing. That’s understood, as we also wear a producer's hat by way of drilling for our own account. But fuel prices are higher and we’re already seeing price increases for everything that uses fuel, which is everything. To hold our line comes at a further erosion of margins, tough medicine for a sector that has been beaten down by the last few years of inactivity. If we don’t raise our prices, we’re looking at mounting losses on top of those incurred over the last two years. Continue the beating, and we’ll exacerbate operational deficiencies that parked equipment and lower crew counts create. We’re not alone on this either.
  
  With an increase in activity and a squeeze, we’re going to see service-side prices creep up. It’s inevitable. Fleet repairs and hiring are needed. The labor pool is thin, and quick additions of horsepower and equipment may be out of reach as manufacturing slowed down as well. Like operators bringing on old wells, service providers will be looking to bring on old gear. Operators are able to fund through higher oil prices, but the service side can only do it by charging and working more. Reasonable margins are needed because operators never understand when your equipment doesn’t work. But they never want to hear about why.
  
  Editor’s note: Dan Doyle is the author of Of Roughnecks & Riches, a firsthand account of building a frac company during the U.S. shale boom. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-15
  U.S. Blockade of Hormuz Holds Firm Under Pressure
  The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz appears to have passed its first real test, with the U.S. successfully turning back all vessels that attempted to break through. Shipping data on Wednesday showed the Rich Starry, a Chinese-owned medium-range... Read more The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz appears to have passed its first real test, with the U.S. successfully turning back all vessels that attempted to break through.
  
  Shipping data on Wednesday showed the Rich Starry, a Chinese-owned medium-range tanker, re-entering the Strait of Hormuz after briefly exiting the Gulf a day earlier. This was the first real test of the U.S. blockade announced by President Trump following the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks over the weekend.
  
  U.S. Central Command claimed that it had "completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea", adding that no vessels had made it past the blockade and six ships had complied with orders to turn back toward Iranian ports.
  
  A U.S. destroyer intercepted two oil tankers attempting to leave Iran’s Chabahar port, while another sanctioned vessel, the VLCC Alicia, capable of carrying up to 2 million barrels of crude, was entering the Gulf on Wednesday en route to Iraq, highlighting the continued complexity of regional flows.
  
  Tracking data also shows multiple vessels hesitating at or near the Strait of Hormuz amid uncertainty over enforcement rules. Several ships that had recently called at Iranian ports have been unable to progress beyond the mouth of the Gulf.
  
  Before the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war in late February, around 130 vessels transited the Strait daily. Traffic has since slowed to a trickle, and ships must now navigate both U.S. naval oversight and Iranian directives. For Iran, those directives include routing requirements along Iran’s coastline and transit fees reportedly reaching as high as $2 million per voyage.
  
  China has called the U.S. action “irresponsible and dangerous,” warning of tightening energy markets, but oil prices dropped dramatically on Tuesday on hopes that the U.S. and Iran would return to the negotiating table.
  
  Traders are currently balancing an ever-tightening oil market against hopes that a peace deal might be agreed and the Strait reopened in the coming days. In the meantime, oil markets are sure to experience yet more volatility. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-15
  US Crude Oil Inventories Still Booming Despite Global Shortage Fears
  The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States rose 6.10 million barrels in the week ending April 10. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories rose by 3.719 million barrels. Analysts had expected a... Read more The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States rose 6.10 million barrels in the week ending April 10. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories rose by 3.719 million barrels. Analysts had expected a 1.3 million barrel draw.
  
  Inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) continue to draw down to alleviate the pressure on prices. For the week ending April 10, 4.1 million barrels left the SPR, bringing the new total to 409.2 million barrels. This is 316.3 million barrels shy of maximum capacity.
  
  US production slipped to 13.596 million bpd for the week ending April 3 after falling by 61,000 barrels, according to the latest EIA data. This is 138,000 bpd more than this same time last year.
  
  At 3:55 pm ET, moments before data release, Brent crude was trading down on the day at $95.10 (-4.26%). This is down roughly $14 per barrel week over week as the market still holds onto a sliver of hope that Iran and the US will get together and talk it out. Meanwhile, the IEA claimed that demand destruction had already begun. WTI was also trading down on the day, by $7.13 per barrel (-7.20%) at $91.95 down roughly $20 per barrel week over week.
  
  Gasoline inventories rose this week by 626,000 barrels in the week ending April 10. In the week prior, gasoline inventories fell by 4 million barrels. As of last week, gasoline inventories were 3% above the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data.
  
  Distillate inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels, after shedding 600,000 barrels in the week prior. Distillate inventories were already 5% below the five-year average as of the week ending April 3, the latest EIA data shows.
  
  Cushing inventory—the inventory kept at the delivery hub for the WTI Crude futures contract—slipped 1.7 million barrels, after falling by 600,000 barrels in the week prior. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-15
  $1B Bet On Falling Oil Prices Pre-Ceasefire Now Under Investigation
  Nearly $1 billion was bet on falling oil prices—just hours before the U.S. announced a ceasefire with Iran. That’s the trade now under scrutiny. U.S. Congressman Ritchie Torres pushed regulators on Tuesday to investigate a burst of oil market activity... Read more Nearly $1 billion was bet on falling oil prices—just hours before the U.S. announced a ceasefire with Iran. That’s the trade now under scrutiny.
  
  U.S. Congressman Ritchie Torres pushed regulators on Tuesday to investigate a burst of oil market activity that hit within a one-minute window ahead of the announcement. The trades were effectively wagers that oil prices would drop. And drop they did. Crude futures fell about 15% after the ceasefire became public.
  
  These were paper bets, or contracts tied to the future price of oil. If a trader thinks oil prices will fall, they sell those contracts ahead of time and buy them back cheaper later. The bigger the move, the bigger the profit. And timing is everything.
  
  And in this case, Torres is thinking that the timing was a little too perfect.
  
  Placing nearly $950 million in downside bets shortly before a market-moving geopolitical announcement raises a simple question: was it a smart guess—or did someone know what was coming?
  
  Torres wants the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to look at it together. Other lawmakers, including Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse, are already raising concerns about similar well-timed trades tied to major policy decisions on Iran, Venezuela, and tariffs.
  
  Since the Iran conflict began, crude has surged roughly 40% and traded above $100 per barrel as flows through the Strait of Hormuz, normally about 20% of global supply, were disrupted.
  
  That kind of volatility creates a wealth of opportunity. Big swings mean big profits for traders positioned correctly. But markets are supposed to run on public information, not privileged access.
  
  If these trades were based on inside knowledge, they would cross a line into illegal territory.
  
  Regulators now look to uncover whether this was this sharp positioning or something else entirely. Source: Oilprice.com

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