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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
904.00
-91.00
1 225.00
+70.00
Apr 20
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	904.00	-91.00	1 225.00	+70.00	Apr 20

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
734.90	+6.51	849.95	+1.05	1 389.55	+3.72	Apr 22

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	607	688	-81	668	766	-98	1 225	1 265	-40	Apr 22
Singapore	630	715	-85	667	852	-185	1 235	1 258	-23	Apr 22
Fujairah	604	661	-57	685	821	-136	1 376	1 321	+55	Apr 22
Houston	617	669	-52	810	775	+35	1 100	1 188	-88	Apr 22

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Analytical Section
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Latest News
- 2026-04-22
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- 2026-04-22
  Oil prices turn lower as investors assess outlook for US-Iran peace talks
  Oil prices turned lower on Wednesday after rising about $1 at the start of trade in Asia, with investors assessing the outlook for U.S.-Iran peace talks following the U.S. extension of a ceasefire. Brent crude futures were down 21 cents, or 0.2%, at... Read more Oil prices turned lower on Wednesday after rising about $1 at the start of trade in Asia, with investors assessing the outlook for U.S.-Iran peace talks following the U.S. extension of a ceasefire.
  Brent crude futures were down 21 cents, or 0.2%, at $98.27 a barrel at 0039 GMT, after touching $99.38 earlier in the session. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $89.39, after climbing as high as $90.71.
  Both benchmark contracts rose about 3% on Tuesday.
  U.S. President Donald Trump said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire with Iran, hours before its expiry, to allow talks to continue to end a war that has killed thousands and shaken the global economy.
  The move appeared unilateral, and it was not immediately clear whether Iran, or U.S. ally Israel, would agree to extend the truce, which began two weeks ago.
  "With the outcome of talks still unclear and the Strait of Hormuz closed, the market lacks clear direction," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities.
  "Unless fighting resumes, prices are likely to stay near the current levels for now," Kikukawa said.
  Trump also said the U.S. Navy would maintain its blockade of Iran’s ports and shore, which Iranian leaders have called an act of war.
  There was no immediate comment from Iran’s most senior leaders on Trump’s ceasefire extension. Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, said Iran had not asked for the extension and repeated its position of breaking the U.S. blockade by force.
  
  Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally channels about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, remained broadly halted on Tuesday with only three ships passing along the waterway in the past 24 hours, shipping data showed.
  Elsewhere, the Israeli military said Hezbollah fired rockets at its troops in southern Lebanon, accusing the Iran-backed group of violating a ceasefire ahead of U.S.-mediated talks with Lebanon this week. There was no immediate comment from Hezbollah.
  In Europe, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the Druzhba oil pipeline pumping Russian oil onto the continent is ready to resume operation. Three industry sources, however, said Russia is set to stop oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline starting on May 1.
  Later on Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration will publish inventory data.
  U.S. crude oil inventory fell by 4.5 million barrels last week after three weeks of gain, while gasoline and distillate stock also declined, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.
  Analysts estimated a 1.2 million-barrel draw of crude for the week ended April 17. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-04-22
  Iraq Turns to Risky Overland Routes as Oil Exports Collapse
  Iraq has been facing a critical oil export crisis since tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz largely seized up. About a month ago, Iraq reached a temporary agreement with Iran to allow its ships to sail through the waterway; however, additional... Read more Iraq has been facing a critical oil export crisis since tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz largely seized up. About a month ago, Iraq reached a temporary agreement with Iran to allow its ships to sail through the waterway; however, additional war risk premiums for Persian Gulf transits have increased dramatically, rendering transport through the route uneconomical.
  
  Unlike Iran, which relies heavily on a shadow fleet of tankers to transport its oil, Iraq lacks a large national fleet, forcing it to rely on third parties. Lack of shipping forced Iraq’s oil production to collapse by 80% to roughly 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day, turning into an existential crisis for a country that relies on oil for up to 95% of federal budget revenue. But now Iraq can breathe a sigh of relief after a key border crossing opened after remaining shut for more than a decade. The Rabia-Yarubiyah border crossing between Iraq and Syria has been reopened after remaining closed for 13 years, offering Iraq a potential alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. The border was initially closed in 2011 due to the Syrian civil war and was later seized by the Islamic State (ISIS) in 2014 before being retaken by Iraqi Kurdish forces.
  
  The crossing provides a critical overland route for trade and oil exports, and a safer alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively blocked to most commercial traffic despite temporary announcements of reopening. The crossing is now open for passengers, transit and commercial trade, including the transportation of fuel oil by truck to Mediterranean ports. This restoration completes the reopening of all three major official border crossings between Iraq and Syria, joining Al-Qaim-Al-Bukamal and Al-Walid-Al-Tanf. The revitalisation of these routes is a central part of efforts to boost regional trade and energy transit. Rabia-Yarubiyah is not only designated as a key corridor for Iraqi oil transit toward the Mediterranean but also a transit route for Turkish goods; the Al-Walid-Al-Tanf, which reopened in March, has already begun facilitating the entry of crude oil tankers from Iraq to Syria's Banyas refinery while the Al-Qaim-Al-Bukamal route, reopened in June 2025, offers passage for both passenger and truck traffic.
  
  Meanwhile, the back and forth between the U.S. and Iran at the Strait of Hormuz shows no signs of coming to an end. On Friday, Iran announced the strait was "completely open" following a ceasefire in Lebanon. However, it reversed its decision a day later with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) regaining control and demanding that the U.S. lift its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran has stated that to permit passage, they will have to oversee traffic through designated routes, effectively forcing ships to follow Iranian-controlled paths. Oil prices have been on a rollercoaster on the constant shifting of positions between Washington and Tehran, reversing their recent downtrend with Brent crude now approaching $100 per barrel.
  
  That said, using the Rabia-Yarubiyah border crossing for Iraqi oil transport poses significant challenges for the country. Overland trucking of Iraqi oil through Syria is a costly, less-efficient emergency solution and crisis management tool, rather than a strategic alternative to pipelines or maritime transport. Energy officials have warned that current oil transport operations involving roughly up to 700 tankers daily, often holding 30 tons each, already exceed optimal capacities, causing backlogs at border points. Land-based trucking is inherently inferior to pipelines and marine transport, facing higher costs and logistical inefficiencies that could prevent a consistent 600-700 truck daily flow, even with both Rabia and al-Waleed operating. Traffic at similar neighboring crossings is frequently delayed by lengthy permit procedures and limited storage capacity on the receiving side, which may impact the Rabia route as well.
  
  Additionally, insecurity issues could also rear their ugly head, with the area in Nineveh province in Iraq as well as the Hasakah countryside in Syria having a history of conflict, having been controlled by ISIS and subsequently Kurdish forces before being returned to Syrian authorities. The region has experienced drone attacks and shelling, making the route insecure and challenging the sustainability of operations.
  
  Ultimately, a complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz might be the only real solution for the likes of Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar–the hardest hit by its closure. Unfortunately, the situation in Iran remains highly tenuous, with U.S. President Donald Trump recently stating that he is highly unlikely to extend the ceasefire beyond the Wednesday deadline and could resume his assault on Tehran. A second round of negotiations is scheduled in Islamabad for Wednesday, with the U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance, though Iran has yet to formally confirm its participation, citing contradictory messaging from Washington. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-22
  Iran War Has Cost The World $50 Billion of Lost Oil Supply, So Far
  Seven weeks after the war in the Middle East began, the world has already lost 500 million barrels of oil supply, equal to around $50 billion at an average price of $100 per barrel, around which futures prices have been hovering since February 28. The... Read more Seven weeks after the war in the Middle East began, the world has already lost 500 million barrels of oil supply, equal to around $50 billion at an average price of $100 per barrel, around which futures prices have been hovering since February 28.
  
  The losses are enormous and continue to pile up as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 million barrels per day of oil supply moved before the war, remains severely restricted, and tensions in the region escalated again.
  
  Even if traffic were restored today at full capacity, oil and LNG supply will take months, and in some cases, years, to recover as all Middle Eastern producers have been forced to curtail upstream production and refinery operations due to hits on energy infrastructure and inability to move oil and LNG cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is the only route to international markets for some of these producers.
  
  500 Million Barrels of Oil Off the Market
  
  Six weeks after the war began, cumulative crude and condensate supply losses in the Middle East had reached 430 million barrels as of April 10, data by Kpler showed.
  
  The analytics firm estimated that Middle Eastern crude supply plunged by an average of 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in March compared to February levels, with a significant portion of the drop driven by Saudi Arabia.
  
  At the end of the seventh week, the cumulative supply loss from the Middle East reached 500 million barrels, per Kpler data. This means a total revenue loss of about $50 billion with oil prices averaging around $100 per barrel since the war began, Johannes Rauball, a senior crude analyst at Kpler, told Reuters.
  
  To put the huge supply loss into perspective, 500 million barrels are equal to almost a full month of oil consumption in the U.S., or more than a month of oil demand in all of Europe, per Reuters estimates.
  
  With so much supply out of the market, inventory draws are accelerating. Kpler said last week that crude markets are tightening with onshore inventories falling by 41 million barrels by mid-April, signaling a drawdown rate of 2.7 million bpd.
  
  “The shift follows the exhaustion of earlier supply buffers and peaks in regional shut-ins,” Kpler’s analysts noted.
  
  “Continued constraints on flows via the Strait of Hormuz suggest further inventory pressure ahead, reinforcing a tightening physical balance.”
  
  Global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 million bpd to 97 million bpd in March, in the largest disruption in history, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report published last week.
  
  Global observed oil inventories fell by 85 million barrels in March, with stocks outside of the Middle East drawn down by a significant 205 million barrels (or by 6.6 million bpd) as flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained choked off, the IEA has estimated.
  
  “Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing the pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy,” said the agency.
  
  Days after this report was published, the Strait of Hormuz was briefly open for a few hours, but then tensions escalated again, and the world’s most critical oil chokepoint was closed off again. The narrow window of open Strait did not change market balances as few tankers managed to pass Hormuz.
  
  The Strait remained mostly closed as of April 21.
  
  Slow and Lengthy Recovery
  
  Even if it were to open to free, safe, and unconditional traffic for all vessels as early as today, global oil supply will need months – and possibly years in some cases – to recover to pre-war levels, analysts warn.
  
  This implies that disruptions and oil price volatility will continue for months to come, even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to unrestricted traffic today.
  
  Earlier this month, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said that an estimated 11 million bpd of upstream production shut-in across the Middle East can only be restored when export logistics normalize with an open Strait of Hormuz.
  
  Even unconstrained, it will take countries like Iraq a long time to reach prior production levels—as long as between 6 and 9 months—given the complexities involved, due to both reservoir management and resource constraints, said Fraser McKay, Head of Upstream Analysis at WoodMac.
  
  A recovery of LNG supply would take even longer, considering that Qatar has signaled that the damage from Iranian missile strikes to the Ras Laffan LNG complex, the world’s single largest LNG-producing facility, would cost it about $20 billion per year in lost revenue and take up to five years to repair.
  
  The Middle Eastern producers may need up to two years to restore their oil and gas output to the levels from before the war, the IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol said last week.
  
  “This gap is now becoming apparent,” Birol told Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung in an interview published on Friday, referring to the fact that there weren’t any loadings and shipments of oil and gas to Asia in March.
  
  “If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, we must prepare for significantly higher energy prices,” Birol said.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-22
  MABUX: Global bunker market to enter a phase of irregular movements on Apr. 22.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued its downward trend on Apr. 21, marking the seventh consecutive session of declines: 380 HSFO: USD/MT: 728.39 (-6.50) VLSFO: USD/MT... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued its downward trend on Apr. 21, marking the seventh consecutive session of declines:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 728.39 (-6.50)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 848.90 (-16.21)
  MGO: USD/MT 1 385.83 (-13.35)
  
  As of Apr. 21, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which reflects the spread between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP), showed the following developments across key global hubs (Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: All four ports remained in the undercharged zone, with discounts widening further by $40 in Rotterdam, $47 in Singapore, $60 in Fujairah, and $34 in Houston.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Houston remained the only overcharged port, although its premium narrowed by $50. The other ports continued in the undercharged zone, with discounts increasing by $41 in Rotterdam, $57 in Singapore, and $61 in Fujairah. MDI values in Singapore and Fujairah again exceeded the $100 threshold.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Rotterdam and Houston were undercharged, with discounts expanding by $62 and $27, respectively. In contrast, Singapore and Fujairah were overcharged, with premiums declining by $75 and $159. Singapore’s MDI approached full (100%) correlation between MBP and DBP.
  
  Overall, bunker prices were trending lower, but the market remains sensitive to new disruptions. Regional supply-demand balances have improved, particularly in Singapore. However, persistent geopolitical uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz continues to pose upside risks, with the potential for rapid price repricing if negotiations stall or shipping conditions deteriorate. We expect the global bunker market to shift into a phase of irregular changes on Apr. 22: 380 HSFO: plus-minus 5-15 USD/MT, VLSFO: plus-minus 5–20 USD/MT, MGO LS: plus-minus 10–25 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX

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