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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
1 041.00
+47.00
1 070.00
-25.00
Jun 9
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	1 041.00	+47.00	1 070.00	-25.00	Jun 9

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
703.97	-10.79	860.33	-13.63	1 289.64	-20.20	Jun 9

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	600	662	-62	690	733	-43	1 070	1 216	-146	Jun 9
Singapore	630	690	-60	785	820	-35	1 162	1 209	-47	Jun 9
Fujairah	660	635	+25	1 210	782	+428	1 515	1 272	+243	Jun 9
Houston	650	679	-29	743	788	-45	1 084	1 148	-64	Jun 9

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Latest News
- 2026-06-10
  Oil rises nearly 1% as US launches new strikes against Iran, supply tightens
  Oil prices climbed about 1% on Wednesday, moving away from a seven-week low touched in the previous session, after the U.S. military launched new strikes against Iran and as market data showed another large draw in U.S. crude stocks. The U.S. military’s... Read more Oil prices climbed about 1% on Wednesday, moving away from a seven-week low touched in the previous session, after the U.S. military launched new strikes against Iran and as market data showed another large draw in U.S. crude stocks.
  
  The U.S. military’s strikes on Iranian targets followed after President Donald Trump vowed on Tuesday to respond to the downing of a U.S. Apache attack helicopter overnight, in a fresh escalation that threatens to unravel a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran.
  
  Brent futures rose 83 cents, or 0.9% to $92.29 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 68 cents, or 0.8%, to $88.97.
  
  Brent had settled at its lowest on Tuesday since April 17, while WTI had closed down at its weakest since May 29 after Israel and Iran halted direct attacks on each other after Trump urged them to stop.
  
  Tehran said it would resume hostilities if Israel continued to attack the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. Israel’s refusal to end its campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah has hindered Trump’s efforts to extend a tenuous ceasefire in the wider U.S.-Israeli war with Iran into a durable settlement.
  
  At the same time, Tehran has continued to block most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Washington has imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports.
  
  U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Tuesday that ship traffic in the Gulf and oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are rising even as Washington and Tehran struggle to reach a deal on ending their more than three-month-old war.
  
  On the supply side, U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week for an eighth consecutive week, according to market sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute released on Tuesday, while gasoline stocks also declined.
  
  Crude stocks fell by 9.12 million barrels in the week ended June 5, the sources said on condition of anonymity, while gasoline inventories fell by 1.19 million barrels.
  
  The United States has acted as a marginal supplier of crude and products during the war and ramped up exports to Asia and Europe. Lower U.S. inventories could hurt exports and push up prices. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-06-10
  Disconnected Oil Futures Market Could See Price Spike within Weeks
  For more than three months, oil market participants have hoped that the Middle East conflict would be resolved any day now, while about 13 million barrels per day (bpd) have been wiped off global supply due to the closed Strait of Hormuz. The oil futures... Read more For more than three months, oil market participants have hoped that the Middle East conflict would be resolved any day now, while about 13 million barrels per day (bpd) have been wiped off global supply due to the closed Strait of Hormuz.
  
  The oil futures market has been mostly guided by sentiment and traders’ hopes of an imminent peace deal – as U.S. President Donald Trump has been touting for weeks – with oil prices increasingly disconnected from the reality on the ground, or more precisely, in storage tanks.
  
  The reality is that global oil stocks, including those in the United States, are plummeting as governments draw on strategic reserves to offset part of the massive losses of supply from the Middle East.
  
  Each day that passes without normalized traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is further draining stocks, which top industry officials warn are on track for critically low level within weeks.
  
  Cargoes would still need weeks to reach buyers even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened unconditionally today to free traffic, which isn’t the case with Iran’s demands in the negotiations with the U.S. to have operational control over the Strait.
  Related: Kuwait Offers First Crude Cargoes to Asia since Iran War Started
  
  Of course, most oil flows could return if tanker owners and operators are willing to risk venturing into and out of the chokepoint, knowing that any peace deal could quickly unravel with one Israeli strike in Lebanon or one “I’ll blow them up” post about Iran by President Trump.
  
  Depleted
  
  Many traders appear unfazed in the face of the 13 million bpd supply loss, as they still hope for a quick resolution to the conflict – for over three months now – and bet on a gusher of oil supply when the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
  
  In reality, even if the Strait reopened today, supply would take weeks and even months to reach customers, leaving a large gap in supply at the start of the peak summer demand season.
  
  So far, the oil market has relied on oil on water, de-sanctioned Russian crude (and for a month even unsanctioned Iranian crude, too), and drawing on stocks to fill the gap. The market has also been lucky that China had amassed an estimated more than 1.2 billion barrels of oil in commercial and strategic reserves before the war, and its imports have collapsed with oil prices at $100 a barrel or more.
  
  These buffers are being exhausted every day that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly halted, and we are approaching the tipping point soon, analysts and industry officials warn.
  
  In the May monthly report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that global oil supply declined by a further 1.8 million bpd in April, taking total losses since February to 12.8 million bpd.
  
  “Mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace,” the IEA said, adding that observed global inventories, including oil on water, were drawn down by 250 million barrels over March and April, or by 4 million bpd.
  
  Demand destruction is certainly also keeping prices from spiking to record levels, but this could soon remain the only buffer that could cap price gains.
  
  Inventories are set to reach “rock bottom” within weeks, and the paper market could catch up with the worst supply disruption in history.
  
  In the United States, stocks of crude and petroleum products had plunged to 1.53 billion barrels as of May 29, per EIA data, the lowest level in weekly ending stocks since 2004.
  
  U.S. gasoline inventories are plummeting, and so are inventories at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures.
  
  Many traders choose to ignore warnings from analysts and from the chief executives of both Chevron and Exxon that inventories are so low that oil prices are weeks away from spiking if traffic through Hormuz remains mostly choked.
  
  “We're approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean, really, really low levels,” Neil Chapman, Exxon’s Senior Vice President, said at the Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference at the end of May.
  
  “I think dated Brent, most people with a model would say dated Brent will shoot up once you get to that really low inventory level, up to $150, $160 — the models would tell you that.”
  
  Chevron’s CEO Mike Wirth said on the same conference, “The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started and over the next few weeks, we're likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there's more upward pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.”
  
  Unknown
  
  With inventories depleting at a record pace, demand destruction could soon remain the only shock absorber, insufficient to stop an oil price spike within weeks without at least a partially normal resumption of traffic at Hormuz.
  
  The biggest unknowns are whether the U.S. and Iran could achieve a breakthrough in negotiations after months of impasse, and when China will return to the market. Beijing in May started tapping its huge reserves, keeping price gains limited.
  
  The global, including Chinese, stock draws are finite and the futures market could soon start to reflect the true magnitude of the supply loss, against traders’ stubborn hopes of an imminent peace deal. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-06-10
  MABUX: Global bunker indices to fluctuate irregularly on Jun. 10 amid persistent market volatility.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — resumed its downward trend on Jun. 09: 380 HSFO: USD/MT: 703.97 (-10.79) VLSFO: USD/MT 860.33 (-13.63) MGO: USD/MT 1 289.64 (-20.20) As... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — resumed its downward trend on Jun. 09:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 703.97 (-10.79)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 860.33 (-13.63)
  MGO: USD/MT 1 289.64 (-20.20)
  
  As of Jun. 09, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which measures the spread between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP) — registered the following developments across the four major global bunkering hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston were undervalued, with underpricing widening by $22, $15, and $25, respectively. Fujairah continued to be the only overvalued port, although its premium narrowed by $9.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston also continued to be underpriced. The discount rose by $28 in Rotterdam, $7 in Singapore, and $21 in Houston. Fujairah remained the only overvalued hub, with its premium declining by $51 while remaining comfortably above the $100 threshold.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Fujairah continued to register an overvaluation, with its premium decreasing by $54. Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston remained undervalued against the digital benchmark. Their discounts widened by $34 in Rotterdam and $50 in Houston, while narrowing by $3 in Singapore.
  
  The continued expansion of undervaluation levels across most bunker hubs indicates that market bunker prices remain under pressure relative to the MABUX Digital Benchmark despite ongoing volatility in global energy markets.
  
  MABUX expects global bunker indices to continue exhibiting irregular fluctuations on June 10, with no clear directional trend likely to emerge amid persistent market uncertainty and elevated volatility: plus-minus 5-10 USD/MT, VLSFO: plus-minus 5–10 USD/MT, MGO LS: plus-minus 5–15 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-06-10
  The Clock Is Ticking Down To Iraq’s Economic Disaster On 27 July
  OPEC’s second-largest oil producer, Iraq, has less than two months before it loses the key means to export its crude, with the agreement to move its product through two pipelines into Turkey expiring on 27 July. These routes have become vital to Iraq’s... Read more OPEC’s second-largest oil producer, Iraq, has less than two months before it loses the key means to export its crude, with the agreement to move its product through two pipelines into Turkey expiring on 27 July. These routes have become vital to Iraq’s ability to monetise its oil flows since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz from 28 February. Up until then, around 95% of Iraq’s crude was shipped through that route to key export destinations in Asia, including China. The blockade of the Strait meant Iraq’s domestic oil storage tanks filled quickly to maximum capacity, and because it has very limited options for transporting its crude elsewhere, it has been forced to shut down production wells. The longer that goes on, the more likely it is to result in permanent damage to Iraq’s oil production through a loss of reservoir pressure, water infiltration, and corrosion, among other factors. For Iraq, this poses an existential risk, as over 90% of its annual budget historically still comes from oil. So, how has it come to this, and what are Iraq’s options now?
  
  The genesis of the current nightmare for Iraq lies in the March 2023 ruling by an international arbitration court that Turkey pay the Baghdad US$1.5 billion in damages for breaching the 1973 ‘Crude Oil Pipeline Agreement’. This resulted from Ankara allowing the semi-autonomous northern Iraqi region of Kurdistan’s government (the KRG), based in Erbil, to bypass the Baghdad-based Federal Government of Iraq (FGI) and export oil independently. According to a separate agreement struck between the FGI and the KRG in 2014, the KRG was obliged to send the oil produced in its region (around 550,000 barrels per day at the time) to the FGI for sale through the state-owned State Organization for Marketing of Oil. In exchange, the FGI would send the KRG a percentage of central budget revenues each month (about 17% at that point). The KRG was explicitly not allowed by the FGI to sell oil independent of this agreement, as Baghdad believed the potentially enormous income from this would be used by the KRG as a war chest to help secure the region’s full independence from Iraq, which was true, as fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. After the arbitration court’s verdict in Baghdad’s favour in March 2023, Turkey triggered a clause in the contract in July 2025, giving a mandatory one-year notice that it was terminating the 52-year-old pact permanently, effective as of 27 July 2026. With the Strait shut, April saw Iraq’s crude oil production fall to an average of 1.389 million barrels per day (bpd), compared to 3.47 million bpd from January 2002 to the end of March this year and over 4.1 million bpd in the three months leading up to 28 February. The last time oil production fell to the current level in Iraq was immediately following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. In response, Baghdad began to move oil for export, however it could, mostly on tanker trucks overland. Iraq has since reached around 500 trucks per day (each truck contains, on average 200 to 250 barrels of oil).
  
  However, these volumes are nowhere near enough to ensure Baghdad’s economic survival, so at the same time, it has been working on the full repair of its old oil pipeline that ran from the disputed, federally-controlled Kirkuk province, adjacent to Iraq’s Kurdistan region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. It ran northwest from the Kirkuk K1 field through federal territory (the Salahaddin and Nineveh provinces, near Mosul) up to the border town of Fishkhabur. This ‘original’ Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline or Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) consisted of two pipes, which theoretically had a nameplate capacity of 1.6 million bpd combined and was split into 1.1 million bpd for the 46-inch (1,168-mm) diameter pipe and 500,000 bpd for the 40-inch (1,016-mm) line. This FGI-controlled pipeline’s export capacity reached between 250,000 and 400,000 bpd when running normally, but even before Islamic State entered the picture in 2014, the pipeline was subject to repeated and ongoing attacks by various Sunni militant groups operating in the region.
  
  Regardless of any peace deal between Iran and the U.S./Israel alliance, Baghdad is now pushing ahead with the Kirkuk-Nineveh pipeline as part of the Iraq-Turkey crude oil pipeline extending to Ceyhan Port on the Mediterranean Sea, which is independent of the KRG. Moreover, the Kirkuk-to-Nineveh line is not a standalone project, but rather is the vital northern leg of the rehabilitated federal network, proving the physical pipe required to carry oil around the KRG's territory and deliver it directly to the Fishkhabur border terminal. The 350,000-bpd design capacity of this Kirkuk-to-Nineveh segment reflects the Oil Ministry’s cautious, phased approach, as they cannot safely test the entire 1.6 million bpd nameplate capacity of the old system at once. Opening this 350,000-bpd pipeline allows Baghdad to easily handle the initial trial target of 150,000 to 250,000 bpd of Kirkuk crude next month. Moreover, once the southern Basra-to-Haditha corridor is built, it will plug into this newly opened Kirkuk-Nineveh-Fishkhabur line, creating a seamless, high-volume flow from the Persian Gulf to Turkey -- at least, that is the idea. On the other side of the regional power balance equation, ever since problems emerged with the FGI’s pipeline, the KRG has continued to maintain its own single-track pipeline, from the Taq Taq field through Khurmala, which joins the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline in the border town of Fishkhabur. This had a nameplate capacity of 700,000 bpd, which was then increased to 1 million bpd, although it has so far reached only 900,000 bpd.
  
  The problem for both the KRG and FGI is that both these pipelines are covered by the 1973 treaty with Turkey, with both due to be shut down on 27 July, unless a deal can be reached with Ankara. But the Turks are well aware of the exceptionally strong hand it now holds in such talks and are pressing for “every possible concession it can think of”, a senior energy source who works closely with Iraq’s Oil Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com over the weekend. “It’s asked for a multi-layered joint ventures across the energy sector -- with the onus on Iraqi investment -- in oil, gas, petrochemicals, and electricity, and has demanded that an arrangement is made that offsets the entire US$1.5 billion that it was fined by the arbitration court and technically still owes Baghdad,” he added. “Additionally, it [Turkey] wants a huge hike in the fixed tariff [currently US$1.00 and US$1.25] on each barrel of oil pumped through the Baghdad-controlled pipeline and it wants Iraq to commit to a high, continuous daily volume [hundreds of thousands of barrels per day] through the pipeline, with one-for-one fines if that volume is not fully used,” he underlined.
  
  All of which brings us to what pressure and to what end the superpower backers of each side -- the West in terms of the KRG, and China and Russia for the FGI -- will try to exert on Turkey, and Ankara’s dealings with both sides have historically been most diplomatically characterised as ‘fluid’. Despite its NATO status, Turkey routinely defies Western foreign policy, with a prime example being its purchase of Russian S-400 missile defence systems, which led to Washington kicking Turkey out of the F-35 fighter jet program. More recently, Turkey used its NATO veto power as leverage before finally allowing Finland and Sweden to join the alliance. It is tolerated in NATO for its crucial geostrategic position between the West and the East, controlling the Turkish Straits (Bosporus and Dardanelles), which is the only maritime gateway out for Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Then again, Turkey and Russia are historical rivals who have backed opposite sides in conflicts like Syria, Libya, and Azerbaijan, and Turkey regards the KRG-controlled northern Iraq region as a breeding ground for the Kurdish terrorist organisations operating across the mainland. It may instead be that Turkey ultimately goes the way that best benefits itself, which includes the signing of the multi-layered agreements mentioned earlier, and which also happens to benefit China. This is because one of these key deals that Turkey is pushing for is the ‘Strategic Development Road Project’, as also fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. This US$17 billion project will not just link Iraq to Turkey westwards but will backlink eastwards to China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’. This, in turn, will create a seamless transport corridor running from Iraq’s flagship deepwater Al Faw Grand Port (due to be finished with Chinese help this year) in its key oil export hub of Basra in the Persian Gulf, all the way through several of its biggest oil and gas fields, and finally into Fishkabur on the Iraqi border with Turkey. From there, it will extend via road and railway links into the rest of Europe. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-06-10
  Why Argentina’s Shale Boom Matters for Global Energy Markets
  Argentina’s epic unconventional oil boom is going from strength to strength. At the end of 2024, South America’s third-largest economy emerged as the continent’s fourth-largest oil producer. After production faltered at the end of 2025, output bounced... Read more Argentina’s epic unconventional oil boom is going from strength to strength. At the end of 2024, South America’s third-largest economy emerged as the continent’s fourth-largest oil producer. After production faltered at the end of 2025, output bounced back to near record levels at a crucial time for world energy markets. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is impacting global oil supply, triggering a price shock that could push vulnerable economies into recession. The 8.6-million-acre Vaca Muerta shale will make Argentina a global energy powerhouse.
  
  Government data shows that for April 2026, Argentina lifted a record 881,809 barrels of crude oil per day. This was not only 1.4% higher than a month prior but represents a notable 19% increase over a year earlier. This solid increase in petroleum production is attributable to the strong growth of unconventional oil output from the Vaca Muerta shale, which hit an all-time high during April 2026 of 618,849 barrels per day. As a result, shale oil now makes up over 70% of Argentina’s total petroleum output, the highest proportion ever.
  
  Natural gas production also recovered during April 2026, hitting a nine-month high of nearly five billion cubic feet per day. This is 1.4% higher month over month and a 1.5% greater than the same period a year earlier. This growth couldn’t come at a more critical time for Argentina and South America. Global natural gas supplies are constrained because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s strikes on Qatar’s liquefied natural gas infrastructure. Those events took roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply off the market.
  
  There are fears that the resulting price shocks could trigger recessions in many natural gas-dependent economies, particularly in Europe. This will also sharply impact many countries in South America, particularly those like Colombia, which are dependent on importing natural gas. Indeed, severe shortages of the fossil fuel have impacted Colombia, Peru, and Argentina in recent years, underscoring the importance of Buenos Aires’ shale oil and gas boom. Regional shortages of the fossil fuel are exacerbated by the structural decline of Trinidad and Tobago’s hydrocarbon sector, where production is rapidly crumbling.
  
  The latest data shows Argentina remains on track to become a leading South American oil and natural gas producer. National oil company YPF is the primary driver of the massive unconventional hydrocarbon boom underway in Argentina. The driller, which President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner nationalized in 2012, is responsible for around 32% of Argentina’s oil output and 27% of natural gas production. Pan American Energy, which is 50% owned by supermajor BP, is the second largest oil producer, with local independent driller Vista Energy in third place.
  
  In addition to being the largest hydrocarbon producer, YPF holds the most acreage in the 8.6-million-acre Vaca Muerta, which is often compared to Texas’s Eagle Ford shale. Indeed, the geological formation possesses many characteristics that are superior to U.S. shale plays, including the prolific Permian shale. Argentina’s state-controlled energy company is still in the early stages of developing the Vaca Muerta, which, as the world’s fourth largest shale oil deposit and second largest shale gas repository, possesses considerable hydrocarbon potential.
  
  YPF intends to become a pure shale operator with a strategy in place to exit legacy conventional oil assets, all of which are mature fields that are becoming increasingly costly to operate. The driller recently announced it will join President Javier Milei’s Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), which aims to advance economic development through attracting substantial long-term capital to Argentina. The driller will invest $25 billion over 15 years to expand its Vaca Muerta footprint by drilling 1,152 wells, thereby significantly boosting production.
  
  This, along with YPF budgeting nearly $40 billion from 2025 to 2030 to develop operations, including $6 billion during 2026 alone, will advance the company’s plans to become a pure shale oil and natural gas producer. Indeed, YPF will direct most of that capital to develop its unconventional hydrocarbon acreage in the Vaca Muerta. This will significantly expand production, with YPF projecting output of 2.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030, a 130% increase over 2026. That will be comprised of 820,000 barrels of oil and 6.1 million cubic feet of natural gas.
  
  YPF’s strong forecast production growth will give Argentina’s overall hydrocarbon output a solid lift at a crucial time for the country’s crisis-prone economy. President Milei, a self-confessed anarcho-capitalist, is focused on stabilizing Argentina’s economy and substantially boosting gross domestic product (GDP). A key plank of his strategy is to substantially lift oil and natural gas production by developing the Vaca Muerta. This will lift energy exports, improve Argentina’s trade balance, boost fiscal revenues, and drive GDP growth while creating a regional energy powerhouse.
  
  After Milei took office, investment in Argentina’s oil sector surged, with Vaca Muerta attracting most of the capital. This is underscored by a marked uptick in the development of major infrastructure projects as well as exploration and production activities since 2024. It is the U.S. and European countries, rather than China, who are now investing in the Vaca Muerta. Foreign energy investment will keep soaring with Milei easing capital controls and taxation while working to relax foreign ownership rules, making Argentina a more business-friendly jurisdiction for foreign companies.
  
  The Vaca Muerta’s high-quality light sweet crude, with an API gravity of 39 to 42 degrees and sulfur content below 0.5%, makes the geological body attractive to energy companies. This is strengthened by the formation’s low operating expenses, with YPF reporting shale oil lifting costs of just $4 per barrel. Indeed, the Vaca Muerta’s breakeven cost of $36 to $45 per barrel is lower than that of many U.S. shale plays. As more infrastructure is developed, breakeven costs will fall further, improving the profitability of the hydrocarbon-rich formation.
  
  These advantages are reinforced by Vaca Muerta’s low carbon emissions per barrel of oil produced. YPF estimates that 12 kilograms of carbon are emitted for every barrel it lifts in the shale acreage. This is less than the global average of 18 kilograms and far lower than many other oil-producing regions in South America. That is lower than Colombia, where heavy sour crude produces up to 25 kilograms of carbon per barrel, and far below Venezuela, where emissions can reach 1,460 kilograms per barrel. This is a key attribute in a low-emission world, where oil companies face growing pressure to reduce their carbon footprint.
  
  The Vaca Muerta has emerged as the world's most important non-U.S. shale play. It possesses the potential to make Argentina a top South American hydrocarbon producer and exporter. Milei’s economic reforms are bolstering Argentina’s attractiveness as a destination for foreign energy investment. For the reasons discussed, oil and natural gas production in the Vaca Muerta will continue growing at a solid clip. This will lift Argentina’s oil production to at least one million barrels per day by the end of this decade. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-06-10
  Ceasefire Caps Oil Rally as China Demand Weakens
  Supertankers Are Back in Fashion as Hormuz Risk Rewrites Oil Trade - The US-Iran crisis has engendered a shipbuilding boom, with the global orderbook for supertankers soaring to an all-time high as shippers race to lock in Very Large Crude Carriers... Read more Supertankers Are Back in Fashion as Hormuz Risk Rewrites Oil Trade
  
  - The US-Iran crisis has engendered a shipbuilding boom, with the global orderbook for supertankers soaring to an all-time high as shippers race to lock in Very Large Crude Carriers (or VLCCs) for 2029-2030 delivery.
  
  - There are currently 262 VLCCs on order at shipyards around the world, surpassing the previous record posted in September 2008 (254), with orders jumping by a whopping 99 since the beginning of 2026.
  
  - Some 10% of the world’s non-sanctioned VLCC fleet remains locked up in the Persian Gulf, wary of transiting the Strait of Hormuz, alerting shippers to the geopolitical risks inherent in oil trading.
  
  - Simultaneously, market prices for second-hand tankers have been shooting through the roof, with 10-year-old VLCCs now going for $115 million, the highest since 2008.
  
  - Whilst the rejuvenation of the global VLCC fleet (on average 14.1 years) is definitely a welcome development, the flurry of VLCCs coming into the market by the 2030s could foreshadow a very challenging freight market throughout the next decade.
  
  Market Movers
  
  - US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has applied to join Argentina’s RIGI tax incentive regime for its $13.8 billion unconventional El Trapial project in the Vaca Muerta shale play, potentially becoming one of the largest investments in the country.
  
  - Global trading house Mercuria has bought the Argentina downstream business of Brazil’s Raizen for $1.42 billion, taking over the Latin America’s country second-largest fuel distribution network.
  
  - Italian oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) has signed an exploration and development agreement with the Gambia for offshore block A1, five years after BP gave up on exploring the country amidst COVID-19 turmoil.
  
  - Brazil’s state oil company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) has been granted the right to develop 8 offshore blocks in the West African country of Côte d’Ivoire, covering most of its ultra-deepwater acreage.
  
  - US LNG developer Glenfarne has upped its price estimate for the 20 mtpa Alaska LNG project from the previous $44 billion to $55 billion, with the cost of the liquefaction terminal assessed at $24-28 billion.
  
  Tuesday, June 09, 2026
  
  The sudden escalation in Israeli and Iranian missile attacks and the subsequent Trump-brokered (temporary) cessation of hostilities has prevented another breakout in crude prices, with ICE Brent continuing to linger around $92 per barrel. Fears of demand destruction are increasingly coming to the forefront, with Chinese buying activity falling into the summer months, traditionally a period of peak demand for the Asian continent.
  
  OPEC+ Is the Group That Keeps on Giving. The seven remaining members of OPEC+ rubberstamped another 188,000 b/d production hike for July, the fourth straight monthly increase despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that slashed some 10 million b/d from Gulf countries’ output.
  
  Saudi Aramco Pulls Asian Prices Lower. Saudi national oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) slashed its formula prices for July-loading cargoes to Asia by $6 per barrel, reflecting a weakening regional pull and putting its flagship Arab Light grade $9.50 per barrel above Oman/Dubai.
  
  Chinese Oil Imports Slump to 8-Year Low. According to Chinese customs data, crude imports to the Asian powerhouse dropped to just 7.8 million b/d in May, the lowest since October 2017 and almost 4 million b/d lower than a year ago as Beijing leans heavily on run cuts and inventory draws.
  
  Colombia Eyes Venezuela’s Oil Revival. Oil companies in Colombia, a country that has managed to reverse a terminal production decline due to the influx of qualified PDVSA employees fleeing the Maduro regime, are increasingly considering investment opportunities in neighbouring Venezuela.
  
  Norway’s Largest Oilfield Gets Reallocated. France’s TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) and Norway’s Aker BP have received slightly bigger stakes in the largest European oil field Johan Sverdrup, to 8.72% and 31.72% respectively, to the detriment of Norwegian state-controlled hydrocarbon holding Petoro.
  
  Iran War Disrupts China’s New Refineries. Market disruptions due to the US-Iran war have triggered project delays in China’s upcoming downstream projects, with Saudi Aramco’s 300,000 b/d Panjin refinery pushing back its startup from June to early October, similarly to CNPC’s Dalian expansion.
  
  Recovering Runs Curb Russia’s Oil Exports. Russia’s refinery runs are expected to increase by 250,000-400,000 b/d this month after hitting a 17-year low of 4.7 million b/d in May amidst Ukrainian drone strikes and spring maintenance, slashing exports from its European ports.
  
  Trump Administration Hails Hormuz Progress. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising ‘very meaningfully’, just as Kuwait offered 4 million barrels of its crude to be delivered outside of the Gulf, joining the ranks of the United Arab Emirates.
  
  Ichthys Strike Tightens Australia’s LNG Outlook. INPEX (TYO:1605), the Japanese operator of the Ichthys LNG plant offshore Australia, has hardened its stance vis-à-vis striking employees and asked the country’s workplace tribunal to block industrial action at the facility, planned for June 11.
  
  UK Oil Major Cuts Company in Half. London-based oil giant BP (NYSE:BP) has formalized the restructuring of the company into separate upstream and downstream units, with company veteran Gordon Birrell assuming the former and Richard Harding serving as interim head of downstream.
  
  Trump’s Alaska Auction Fails Spectacularly. The June 5 federal lease sale in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge disappointed market watchers, with only 5 leases allocated between the state of Alaska itself (3) and a smaller producer HEX Alaska (2), sapping the outlook for Alaskan drilling.
  
  Vancouver to Dredge TMX Waterway. The Port of Vancouver is launching dredging works this summer to allow Aframax tankers, usually carrying 700,000 barrels, to load fully as the current depth of the waterway from the Westridge Marine Terminal caps TMX loadings at just 550-600,000 barrels.
  
  Gulf Aluminium Woes Start to Bite. Primary aluminium output in Gulf countries plunged to its lowest in more than a decade, to just 330,000 tonnes in May and down 35% from a year ago, paving the way for a boom in Chinese exports that have jumped to 632,000 tonnes last month.
  
  Washington Ups the Ante on China’s Tech. The US Department of Defense added several Chinese business giants, including technology firms Alibaba and Baidu and EV manufacturers BYD and Nio to its list of companies linked to China’s military, banning them from government-related contracts. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-06-10
  Oil Prices Jump After U.S. Strikes Iran Over Downed Apache
  Oil prices jumped in early Asian trading on Wednesday after the United States launched what it described as self-defense strikes against Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, Brent crude was up 1.03% at $92.39... Read more Oil prices jumped in early Asian trading on Wednesday after the United States launched what it described as self-defense strikes against Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  At the time of writing, Brent crude was up 1.03% at $92.39 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate had gained 0.91% to trade at $89.00 per barrel.
  
  U.S. Central Command said the strikes were in response to Iran's downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter in the region. U.S. forces then "struck Iranian air defense, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites" near the Strait. Iran denied having shot down the helicopter, claiming it was an accident that the U.S. was using as a pretense for attacking.
  
  President Trump had vowed to respond to the downing of a U.S. helicopter overnight, but later said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that it "wasn't a big deal" because the pilots survived.
  
  Oil prices spiked at the start of the week when Iran and Israel exchanged missile attacks after Israel had targeted southern Beirut - something that Tehran had set as a red line. Tensions appeared to cool on Tuesday, with both countries finding an off-ramp under significant pressure from the U.S. and regional allies.
  
  The latest flare-up between the U.S. and Iran has spooked markets once again, and traders will be looking for signs that it remains a tit-for-tat exchange rather than the start of a new round of escalation.
  
  Beyond geopolitical catalysts, oil prices have been supported by substantial drawdowns in U.S. crude inventories, with the latest report from the API on Tuesday afternoon showing crude stocks falling by another 9.12 million barrels last week. That marks the eighth consecutive weekly decline and highlights the tightness of physical markets even as traders continue to focus on potential peace talks.
  
  There is plenty of debate within the industry over exactly how much demand destruction is taking place, how much oil is currently getting through the Strait, and how quickly flows might return if a peace deal is agreed upon. But global inventory numbers are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore, and time is ticking for oil markets as analysts debate if we are nearing the "operational minimum".
  
  Over the last month, markets appear to have priced in a gradual de-escalation due to efforts by the White House to broker a broader settlement with Tehran. Those expectations, alongside ever-dwindling reserves, are leading to increasingly volatile oil markets when attacks take place.
  
  Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has warned that Tehran will not leave attacks unanswered, with Iranian state media reporting explosions in Bahrain and Kuwait. Iranian Press TV claimed the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain was targeted.
  
  It's an all too familiar feeling for oil markets, with traders balancing the risk of escalation against hopes of a peace deal, and all the while, the amount of oil in storage is dwindling away. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-06-10
  US Crude Oil, Gasoline Inventories Keep Sinking, but Prices Don’t Care
  The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 9.119 million barrels in the week ending June 5. Analysts had expected a 3.4 million draw. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 6.75... Read more The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 9.119 million barrels in the week ending June 5. Analysts had expected a 3.4 million draw. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 6.75 million barrels.
  
  Despite inventories dropping by a hard-to-stomach 44 million barrels over the last 8 weeks according to API data, US crude inventories are still up almost 7 million barrels so far this year, according to API data.
  
  Inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) are also falling quickly as the Trump Administration looks to alleviate pricing pressure. For the week ending June 5, another 7.9 million barrels left the SPR, bringing the new total to 349.2 million barrels—the lowest level since August 2023 and 376 million barrels shy of maximum capacity.
  
  US production slipped to 13.707 million bpd for the week ending May 29, down from 13.715 million bpd in the week prior, according to the latest EIA data, and up 299,000 bpd from a year earlier.
  
  At 2:35 pm ET on Tuesday, before data release, Brent crude was trading down on the day at $91.39 (-3.03%) even as the EIA warned that OECD oil stockpiles were set to go below 2.3 billion barrels—a level not seen in decades.
  
  Brent has fallen roughly $2.50 per barrel since last Wednesday. WTI was also trading down on the day, by $3.18 per barrel (-3.48%) at $88.12, which is a roughly $4 dropoff from last Tuesday.
  
  Gasoline inventories also fell this week, by 1.191 million barrels in the week ending June 5. In the week prior, gasoline inventories increased by 3.45 million barrels. In the week prior, gasoline inventories were already 6% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data.
  
  Distillate inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels, after shedding 214,000 barrels in the week prior. Distillate inventories were already 11% below the five-year average as of the week ending May 29, the latest EIA data shows.
  
  Cushing inventory—the inventory kept at the delivery hub for the WTI Crude futures contract—fell by 1.125 million barrels over the reporting period after falling 279,000 barrels in the week prior.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-06-10
  QatarEnergy Adds Another Oil Discovery to Namibia's Hot Streak
  QatarEnergy has struck oil again offshore Namibia, adding another discovery to what is becoming one of the most impressive exploration runs in the industry. The company announced that its Merlin-1X exploration well in Petroleum Exploration License... Read more QatarEnergy has struck oil again offshore Namibia, adding another discovery to what is becoming one of the most impressive exploration runs in the industry.
  
  The company announced that its Merlin-1X exploration well in Petroleum Exploration License 39 (PEL 39) encountered oil with what it described as the most promising subsurface results seen so far in the license. The well found good reservoir quality, light oil, and limited associated gas—three words exploration teams generally like seeing in the same sentence.
  
  Merlin-1X is the tenth well drilled under PEL 39 and follows three previous discoveries in the block.
  
  At this point, the bigger surprise in Namibia's Orange Basin might be drilling a dry hole.
  
  Over the past few years, the basin has transformed from a frontier exploration play into one of the world's most closely watched oil provinces. A steady stream of discoveries by international operators has fueled expectations that Namibia could emerge as a major crude producer in the coming decade.
  
  "We are pleased with this discovery, which follows three earlier discovery announcements in Namibia," QatarEnergy CEO and Energy Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi said.
  
  The company said the results further strengthen confidence in the Orange Basin as a world-class hydrocarbon province and support QatarEnergy's strategy of expanding its international upstream portfolio through high-impact exploration.
  
  While QatarEnergy did not release resource estimates for Merlin-1X, the emphasis on reservoir quality and light crude is likely to attract as much attention as the discovery itself. Finding oil is one thing. Finding oil that appears commercially attractive is another.
  
  The discovery was made in partnership with Shell and Namibia's national oil company.
  
  QatarEnergy continues to build a sizable position in the country, holding interests in four offshore exploration licenses. The company owns 45% of PEL 39 and also participates in PEL 56, PEL 91, and PEL 90, giving it exposure to roughly 34,000 square kilometers of offshore acreage.
  
  The latest result adds another data point to a growing body of evidence suggesting the Orange Basin may still be in the early chapters of its story. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-06-10
  Kuwait Offers First Crude Cargoes to Asia since Iran War Started
  Kuwait, one of OPEC’s top producers and one of the exporters most affected by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is offering its crude to Asian buyers for the first time since the Iran war choked off transit through the critical chokepoint. At... Read more Kuwait, one of OPEC’s top producers and one of the exporters most affected by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is offering its crude to Asian buyers for the first time since the Iran war choked off transit through the critical chokepoint.
  
  At least 4 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude loaded on two supertankers capable of carrying 2 million barrels each are being directly offered by the national oil company Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) to buyers in China and South Korea, anonymous traders with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg on Tuesday.
  
  The two very large crude carriers (VLCC) have cleared the Strait of Hormuz and the cargoes can now be taken to ports in Asia promptly, according to the traders.
  
  The first Kuwaiti crude offering of cargoes that have passed through the world’s most critical oil chokepoint since February 28 signal that some of the crude supply out of the Persian Gulf is making its way to buyers despite the collapse of tanker traffic and the months-long delays in deliveries.
  
  Unlike Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait does not have a pipeline alternative to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has severely stifled its crude oil exports in recent months.
  
  However, traffic at Hormuz is becoming increasingly opaque and difficult to track, with the market and analysts flying blind in guesstimating how much crude supply from the Middle East is trickling through the Strait.
  
  Kuwait will likely need up to 12 weeks after the Strait of Hormuz re-opens to restore the oil production that has been curtailed since the war began on February 28, a KPC official said last week.
  
  Kuwait doesn’t have an export outlet not depending on the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  Iraq, whose exports have been also severely restricted, at least has a pipeline north through Kurdistan to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, whose capacity Baghdad plans to triple in three months to about 770,000 barrels per day.
  
  Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has hiked flows on the East-West pipeline to maximize oil exports from the Red Sea port on Yanbu, while the UAE started construction on a new pipeline to Fujairah, which will bypass Hormuz and will become operational next year.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com

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