Mabux: Global Bunker Prices

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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
762.50
0.00
622.00
-3.00
Apr 28
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	762.50	0.00	622.00	-3.00	Apr 28

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
463.10	-5.00	535.27	-4.73	726.77	-3.37	Apr 29

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	420	421	-1	453	479	-26	622	611	+11	Apr 29
Singapore	434	431	+3	495	516	-21	607	644	-37	Apr 29
Fujairah	422	469	-47	493	523	-30	698	797	-99	Apr 29
Houston	396	437	-41	460	550	-90	618	679	-61	Apr 29

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Analytical Section
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Latest News
- 2025-04-29
  NATIONAL HOLIDAY IN SWEDEN
  DEAR FRIENDS! PLEASE BE KINDLY INFORMED THAT DUE TO NATIONAL HOLIDAY IN SWEDEN OUR OFFICE WILL BE CLOSED ON MAY 1ST, 2025. NEVERTHELESS SOME UPDATES AS WELL AS OIL-FUTURES SETTLEMENTS AND TOOLS LINKED TO THEM WILL BE STILL AVAILABLE ON THE WEB-PLATFORM. IN... Read more DEAR FRIENDS!
  
  PLEASE BE KINDLY INFORMED THAT DUE TO NATIONAL HOLIDAY IN SWEDEN OUR OFFICE WILL BE CLOSED ON MAY 1ST, 2025.
  
  NEVERTHELESS SOME UPDATES AS WELL AS OIL-FUTURES SETTLEMENTS AND TOOLS LINKED TO THEM WILL BE STILL AVAILABLE ON THE WEB-PLATFORM.
  IN CASE OF NEED DURING HOLIDAYS PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CONTACT US ROUND THE CLOCK BY MAIL info@mabux.com.
  
  MABUX TEAM Source: MABUX
- 2025-04-29
  Oil prices fall 2% to 2-week low as trade war concerns dampen demand outlook
  Oil prices fell about 2% to a two-week low on Tuesday on expectations OPEC+ will boost output even as U.S. President Donald Trump’s on-again off-again trade tariffs could reduce global economic growth and demand for the fuel. Brent crude futures fell... Read more Oil prices fell about 2% to a two-week low on Tuesday on expectations OPEC+ will boost output even as U.S. President Donald Trump’s on-again off-again trade tariffs could reduce global economic growth and demand for the fuel.
  Brent crude futures fell by $1.41, or 2.1%, to $64.45 per barrel by 11:03 a.m. EDT (1503 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by $1.36, or 2.2%, to $60.69.
  That puts both benchmarks on track for their lowest closes since April 10.
  Trump’s push to reshape world trade by imposing tariffs on imports into the U.S. has made it probable that the global economy will slip into recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll.
  China, hit with the steepest tariffs, has responded with its own levies against U.S. imports, stoking a trade war between the top two oil-consuming nations. That has prompted analysts to sharply lower their oil demand and price forecasts.
  "Stalling negotiations between China and the U.S. on trade raises anxiety levels on economic and demand growth prospects once again. It is not even clear whether the two leaders have spoken to one another," said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM, a brokerage and consulting firm that is part of TP ICAP (LON:NXGN).
  The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to a record high in March as businesses ramped up efforts to bring in merchandise ahead of Trump’s sweeping tariffs, suggesting trade was a large drag on economic growth in the first quarter.
  
  General Motors (NYSE:GM), Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) and Electrolux (ST:ELUXa) on Tuesday joined the diverse list of companies that have pulled forecasts for 2025 or slashed outlooks, as Trump’s trade war sends a chill through the corporate world.
  The White House said Trump will sign an executive order on Tuesday to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs.
  UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP), meanwhile, reported a deeper-than-expected 48% drop in net profit to $1.4 billion on weaker refining and gas trading.
  The energy market is awaiting earnings from U.S. oil majors Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) later this week.
  PRODUCTION RISING
  Several members of OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, will suggest an acceleration of output hikes for a second consecutive month in June, sources told Reuters last week.
  "Another production hike from OPEC+ could not happen at a worse time when sentiment is already weak, and with Kazakhstan not showing much interest in reducing production," said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
  OPEC+ member Kazakhstan increased oil exports by 7% year-on-year in January-March thanks to a supply boost via the Caspian pipeline, Reuters calculations based on official data and sources showed on Tuesday.
  U.S. OIL INVENTORIES
  U.S. oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute trade group is due on Tuesday and from the U.S. EIA on Wednesday. [EIA/S] [API/S]
  
  Analysts forecast energy firms added about 0.5 million barrels of oil to U.S. stockpiles during the week ended April 25.
  If correct, that would be the fifth weekly build in a row and compares with an increase of 7.3 million barrels during the same week last year and an average build of 3.2 million barrels over the past five years (2020-2024). Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2025-04-29
  AFRICA: CMA CGM ANNOUNCES CARBON EMISSION SURCHARGE FOR GABONESE SHIPMENTS
  CMA CGM has announced the implementation of a $9 per twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) surcharge on shipments to and from Libreville, Gabon – following the decision by the Gabonese Council of Ministers to introduce a new Carbon Contribution to help finance... Read more
- 2025-04-29
  EUROPE: STRIKE DISRUPTION HITS PORT OF ANTWERP-BRUGES
  The Port of Antwerp-Bruges has reported that disruption caused by the national strike in Belgium today (29 April) is continuing to mount. In an update posted on its website at 10 am local time this morning, the Port Authority reported: ‘The Antwerp... Read more
- 2025-04-29
  EUROPE: PORT OF AARHUS POSTS Q1 INCREASE IN CONTAINER THROUGHPUT
  Denmark’s largest commercial port, Aarhus, has reported a ‘positive’ start to 2025, with a total of 170,927 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) handled in the first quarter (Q1). In a statement issued yesterday (28 April), the Port of Aarhus said that... Read more
- 2025-04-29
  GLOBAL: VITOL LAUNCHES NEW FUELEU COMPLIANT CO-PROCESSED VLSFO OFFERING FOR MARINE CUSTOMERS
  Vitol Bunkers has announced today (28 April) that is to offer customers FuelEU compliant co-processed bunkering fuel that is being produced by its 100,000 barrels a day (b/d) refinery in Fujairah. Vitol said its Elandra Falcon is the first vessel to... Read more
- 2025-04-29
  AMERICAS: ALGOMA WELCOMES FIRST OF TWO METHANOL-READY PRODUCT TANKER NEWBUILDS
  Algoma Central Corporation (Algoma) has announced the arrival of a new methanol-ready product tanker, Algoma East Coast. The 37,000 DWT vessel, which arrived into Saint John Harbour yesterday (28 April), is the first of two such tankers ordered by... Read more
- 2025-04-29
  Oil prices fall on trade jitters, some Russia-Ukraine progress
  Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Tuesday amid persistent uncertainty over U.S. trade tariffs dampened the economic outlook and sparked persistent concerns over slowing demand. Oil was also pressured by Russia unexpectedly announcing a three-day ceasefire... Read more Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Tuesday amid persistent uncertainty over U.S. trade tariffs dampened the economic outlook and sparked persistent concerns over slowing demand.
  Oil was also pressured by Russia unexpectedly announcing a three-day ceasefire with Ukraine, which could help pave a path towards a bigger agreement.
  Brent oil futures for June fell 0.4% to $65.63 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.3% to $61.64 a barrel by 21:43 ET (01:43 GMT).
  Oil markets were also skittish before an OPEC+ meeting next week, where the cartel is widely expected to increase production for a second consecutive month.
  Tariff uncertainty, US-China trade war dent demand outlook
  Oil was nursing steep losses so far in 2025, having recently slumped to a more-than four-year low on fears that increased global trade disruptions will undercut demand.
  A bitter trade war between top oil consumers the U.S. and China showed little signs of deescalating, while U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to be preparing to roll out even more sweeping tariffs.
  Oil markets took little relief from a Wall Street Journal report that Trump was planning to soften the blow of his steep automotive tariffs.
  Fears of slowing demand, amid increased economic turmoil, have been a major weight on oil prices in recent months. Trump’s calls to increase U.S. energy production and bring down prices have also rattled crude markets.
  
  Russia announces surprise 3-day ceasefire with Ukraine
  Oil was also pressured by Russia announcing a surprise three-day ceasefire with Ukraine in early-May. The ceasefire will run between May 8 and May 10, as Moscow commemorates the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany.
  The ceasefire offered some hope that Russia still remained open to peace, as ongoing U.S.-brokered negotiations over a ceasefire appeared to be stalling.
  Ukraine called for a longer, 30-day ceasefire, while Washington signaled that it wanted a permanent ceasefire between the two countries.
  Easing Russia-Ukraine tensions could eventually result in the loosening of strict U.S. sanctions on Moscow’s oil industry, freeing up more global supply and further pressuring prices.
  Source: Investing.com
- 2025-04-29
  Inside Trump’s Hardball Strategy to Control Global Oil Prices
  No previous U.S. government nor its now second-term President Donald Trump are known for their forgiving natures of supposed past betrayals. This is particularly true when the transgressor has been an entity on which both have been forced to rely for... Read more No previous U.S. government nor its now second-term President Donald Trump are known for their forgiving natures of supposed past betrayals. This is particularly true when the transgressor has been an entity on which both have been forced to rely for any length of time. Saudi Arabia as one of the world’s leading oil suppliers and the de facto leader of oil cartel OPEC for decades has been regarded with deep distrust by Washington since it catalysed the 1973/74 Oil Crisis at a time when the U.S. and its allies were still dependent on it for oil, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. This feeling intensified with the subsequent oil price war launched by Saudi Arabia in 2014 designed specifically to destroy the U.S.’s then-nascent shale oil industry as also detailed in the book. With a new oil market forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA) foreshadowing oil prices well below those needed for Saudi Arabia to balance its budget in the years to come, it appears that Washington will finally “not have to put up with any more crap from the Saudis”, as a senior Washington-based legal source exclusively told OilPrice.com.
  
  There is one critical economic reason and one crucial political one why sitting U.S. presidents want to keep oil prices at the lower rather than higher end of historical averages. The economic rationale centres on the close correlation between oil prices and the wider health of the U.S. economy. Historical data highlights that every US$10 per barrel (pb) or so change in the price of crude oil results in around a 25-30 cent change in the price of a gallon of gasoline, and for every 1 cent that the average price per gallon of gasoline rises, more than US$1 billion or so per year in consumer spending is lost. The political reason is that since 1896, the sitting U.S. president has won re-election 11 times out of 11 if the economy was not in recession within two years of an upcoming election. However, sitting U.S. presidents who went into a re-election campaign with the economy in recession won only one time out of seven. The same pattern broadly applies to the re-election chances of candidates of any sitting president’s party in U.S. mid-term elections as well, the outcome of which affects the ability of the incumbent leader to push ahead with their legislative agenda for the last two years of their presidency. In any event, the statistics make sober reading for incumbent U.S. presidents and the senatorial, congressional and gubernatorial candidates of their party when considering how to handle domestic and international policies related to the oil price. Consequently, it is not surprising -- as Bob McNally, the former energy adviser to former President George W. Bush put it – that, “Few things terrify an American president more than a spike in fuel [gasoline] prices.”
  
  Trump’s view when he began his first term as president on 20 January 2017 was that the oil price needed to trade in a US$40-45 per barrel (pb) of Brent to US$75-80 pb range – ‘The Trump Oil Price Range’. The floor was seen as the price at which most U.S. shale oil producers could make a decent profit, and the ceiling was seen as being most advantageous for U.S. economic growth. However, at that point the Saudis were still trying desperately in 2017 to repair the appalling damage its 2014-2016 Oil Price War had done to its own finances and to those of its OPEC brothers, so they embarked on coordinated production cuts (with Russia as the new-found member of the expended ‘OPEC+’ cartel) to push the oil price higher. Harking back to the original 1945 U.S.-Saudi Arabia agreement that balanced oil against security as also examined in my latest book, Trump said: “OPEC and OPEC nations are, as usual, ripping off the rest of the world, and I don’t like it. Nobody should like it.” He added: “We defend many of these nations for nothing, and then they take advantage of us by giving us high oil prices. Not good. We want them to stop raising prices. We want them to start lowering prices and they must contribute substantially to military protection from now on.” Following Trump’s direct and clear warnings to Saudi Arabia’s Royal Family in the third quarter of 2018 of the catastrophic consequences if the Kingdom continued to keep oil prices higher than the US$80 per barrel Brent price ceiling, Saudi Arabia increased production and oil prices came down again. That period was the only part of Trump’s presidency that saw his Oil Price Trading Range breached to the upside.
  
  That said, the ceiling of this range is well below the recent levels that Saudi Arabia has needed to fully restore its finances to where they were before the onset of the 2014-2016 Oil Price War. This pricing discrepancy prompted Saudi Arabia to launch another oil price war in 2020 using the same strategy that had previously failed in 2014-2016 and towards the same aim of setting back the seemingly inexorable advance of the U.S. shale oil sector. Trump’s reaction to this was even more aggressive than before, with a telephone call made on 2 April (according to a very senior source in the White House spoken to by OilPrice.com at the time) in which he very clearly told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that unless OPEC started cutting oil production – so allowing oil prices to rise (above the danger zone for U.S. shale oil producers) – that he would be powerless to stop lawmakers from passing legislation to withdraw U.S. troops from Saudi Arabia. It was also made very clear by Trump that the next time the Saudis tried the same thing it would be the end of the 1945 Agreement between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. This, said Trump, would involve the immediate withdrawal of all U.S. military assistance from the Kingdom, without further notice. Following that, Saudi Arabia and OPEC gradually cut oil production to bring prices back up.
  
  As of now, Saudi Arabia’s 2025 fiscal breakeven price per barrel of the Brent crude benchmark is a minimum of US$90.9, according to IMF figures. So bad are the real-world ramifications of this that several ‘Vision 2030’ projects – aimed at reducing the Kingdom’s dependence on oil -- have either been suspended or radically reduced in size, including the flagship Neom City development. Initially-costed at US$1.5 trillion the linear city project located has been cut back in size from 106 miles long to just 1.6 miles long. A deficit on both the current account and budget are still in place, and according to economic data sources Saudi Arabia’s public debt jumped 16% to over US$324 billion last year. “This gap between the spot Brent price and the level the Saudis need to breakeven fiscally looks set to run and with retaliatory options cut off now Trump’s in power, it looks like they’ll have to keep going to the debt markets to fill it,” a senior source in the European Union’s energy security complex exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “This is likely to make it [Saudi Arabia] even more reliant on the U.S. over time, given the dominance of the country in the global bond markets,” he added. On top of all this, Trump ordered the ‘No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels’ (NOPEC) Bill be made fully ready to be passed into law at minimal notice, as a further deterrent to be used against Saudi Arabia. The NOPEC Bill would make it illegal to artificially cap oil production or to set prices, as OPEC does under the leadership of the Kingdom. The Bill would also immediately remove the sovereign immunity in U.S. courts for OPEC as a group and for every one of its individual member states. This would leave Saudi Arabia open to being sued under existing U.S. anti-trust legislation, with its total liability being its estimated US$1 trillion of investments in the U.S. alone. The U.S. would then be legally entitled to freeze all Saudi bank accounts in the U.S., seize its assets in the country, and halt all use of U.S. dollars by the Saudis anywhere in the world (oil is denominated in U.S. dollars, of course). It would also allow the U.S. to go after Saudi Aramco and its assets and funds, as it is still a majority state-owned production and trading vehicle. This would mean that Aramco could be ordered to break itself up into smaller, constituent companies that are not deemed to break competition rules in the oil, gas, and petrochemicals sectors or to influence the oil price.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-04-29
  World Bank Warns of Economic Downturn in Eurasia
  Economic activity across the South Caucasus and Central Asia is projected to stagnate over the next two years, as uncertainty envelops global markets, according to World Bank experts. The bank’s latest Europe and Central Asia Economic Update identifies... Read more Economic activity across the South Caucasus and Central Asia is projected to stagnate over the next two years, as uncertainty envelops global markets, according to World Bank experts.
  
  The bank’s latest Europe and Central Asia Economic Update identifies the most serious challenges facing policymakers in the regions as weaker-than-expected trade, unpredictable policy shifts and decreasing prices for commodities. The report also cautions that inflationary pressure may continue to arise from rising food costs, tight labor markets and “potential supply-side shocks.”
  
  “Risks are heavily tilted to the downside,” according to the report. “Heightened global policy uncertainty, trade fragmentation, increased trade barriers, geopolitical tensions, and financial market volatility dominate.”
  
  Growth rates for both the South Caucasus and Central Asia are expected to dip slightly over the next two years. In the Caucasus, Georgia is projected to experience the biggest dip in economic performance, although its predicted 5 percent growth rate in 2026 would still be higher than other regional states. The bank believes Armenia will experience slight growth with the predicted 4 percent growth rate in 2025 rising to 4.2 percent the following year. Azerbaijan, meanwhile, will experience a decline, going from a 2.6 growth rate this year to 2.4 percent in 2026.
  
  Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will experience Central Asia’s most significant declines in economic growth over the next two years, while Kazakhstan’s slowdown will be less pronounced, according to World Bank estimates. Uzbekistan’s growth rate is expected to remain level during 2025-26 at 5.9 percent.
  
  The onset of policy uncertainty, underscored by the brewing tariff-driven trade war among global economic powers, is undermining efforts by Central Asian states to promote trade via the lowering of inter-state trade barriers. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan over the past year have taken steps to settle border disputes and simplify customs procedures, but the payoff from such moves in terms of increased trade flows may be deferred by the imposition of tariffs.
  
  The World Bank recommends the best way for middle income countries, including those in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, to manage existing economic risks is to accelerate structural reforms that stimulate private enterprise and entrepreneurship.
  
  “Countries would benefit from boosting structural reforms at home, especially reforms to … foster buoyant private sector development, innovation, and competition,” the report states. “Across the region, successful economic transitions have been driven by private sector transformation, with policy makers shifting from protecting incumbents to promoting business dynamism and rewarding merit.”
  
  The report highlights a “surge” in household borrowing in the Caucasus and Central Asia as a trend with potentially disconcerting ramifications for growth. The bank singles out Kyrgyzstan, where in early 2025, the “annual expansion of consumer loans exceeded 85 percent in nominal terms, making them the largest component of banks’ credit portfolios.”
  
  The bank report does not go into detail about what all that borrowing is being used for, or what the terms of the household loans are. Other economic data suggests that household incomes in Central Asia are having trouble keeping pace with inflation, raising the possibility that citizens are borrowing to meet monthly living expenses. If that is the case, the spike in Kyrgyz household borrowing could be a potential red flag of a default crisis down the road.
  
  The report additionally highlights that despite tightening restrictions and increasing harassment of Central Asian migrants in Russia, remittances from guest workers to family members back in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan experienced a spike in 2024 compared with figures for the previous year. Uzbek labor migrants sent almost $15 billion back home in 2024, most of the money coming from Russia. Meanwhile, Georgia, a country that grew geopolitically closer to the Kremlin over the past two years, has seen a significant decline in remittance totals over the same period. Source: Oilprice.com